Style Channels

Contrarian

Mission Creep Impossible: The Impact of the Federal Reserve's Exploding Balance Sheet

Jeff Cox, finance editor at CNBC.com, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to demystify the often opaque activities of the Federal Reserve. Cox shares his in-depth knowledge on the Fed's plumbing to shine light on how factors such quantitative easing and interest rate cuts impact the real economy as well as financial markets. Cox describes how the Fed's reliance on the Phillips curve, a theory which may be outdated, led the central bank to chronically undershoot inflation over the past decade—as a result, the Fed is now willing to let inflation "run hot," purchasing assets and suppressing rates in an unprecedented manner. Lastly, Cox shares his views on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and the growing debt levels of the U.S. government. Filmed on January 7, 2020. Key learnings: The commitment of the Federal Reserve to supply liquidity to the economy is stronger than ever. The fact that the Fed’s facilities are more effective at inflating financial assets than they are at supporting the real economy is not something that its leadership is sufficiently concerned about to bring about any meaningful change in policy.

Growth

Carly Fiorina: Big tech Has Unprecedented Economic Power

Carly Fiorina, founder and chairman of Carly Fiorina Enterprises and 2016 Republican Presidential candidate, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the value and challenges of regulating big tech and the enormous economic power it has amassed across the globe. Hailing from an extensive career in tech and finance as former CEO of HP, she discusses the opportunities that business can bring to the political table and the challenges she faced as a woman in male-dominated industries, and the value of regulating big tech. She also shares her views on current events from the storming of the Capitol to the political climate to the effects of the pandemic on public policy. Filmed on January 11, 2021. Key Learnings: Fiorina argues that focusing on results rather than partisan issues encourages competition and accountability to restore political systems and revitalize the economy.

High Yield & Income

Steven van Metre and Michael Ashton: Everything You Wanted to Know About Inflation

Steven van Metre of Steven van Metre Financial interviews Michael Ashton, founder of Enduring Investments and a lifelong student of inflation—that famed economic phenomenon which pervades everyday life and yet is often difficult to truly understand. Ashton breaks down the Consumer Price Index, the most common measure of inflation, to its core, unscrambling its various inputs, evaluating its common criticisms (namely, that it fails to capture the magnitude of price increases in college tuition, healthcare, and housing), and comparing it to other alternative measures such as the Chapwood Index and ShadowStats.com. Van Metre, for his part, directs his gaze toward the macro issues such as the interplay between inflation and variables such as money supply growth, the velocity of money, and interest rates. Lastly, the pair look forward to see what inflationary (or, perhaps, deflationary) forces are on the horizon. Filmed on January 8, 2020. Key learnings: Ashton thinks that the Consumer Price Index is an imperfect metric but is nevertheless an optimal way to measure inflation. He argues that the extraordinary growth in money stock (induced by the Federal Reserve) will indeed augur inflation. Van Metre contends that various deflationary forces, namely the decrease in the velocity of money, will stop inflation in its tracks and could in fact bring deflation.

Cryptos, Gold, & Hard Assets

Surge Copper CEO buys the dip

Today, Ted Dixon reviews the January 15th morning report that looks at BC junior miner Surge Copper (SURG).

Foreign Exchange

Iran: Investing in One of the Best-Performing Stock Markets

Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal welcomes back Maciej Wojtal, founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, an investment fund devoted to Iranian equities, to discuss how he's identified a diversified economy in Iran despite decades of sanctions and geopolitical risks. His interest in Iran was sparked by the nuclear deal brokered by President Obama in 2015 where he found a stock market that had been operating for more than two decades and included nearly 600 companies with $200 million in daily liquidity. His fund gives Western investors access to fast-growing businesses with low valuations in an array of industries—from utilities and automotive to commodities and agriculture. He shares his perspective on managing volatility as well as how the U.S.-Iran relations are expected to change under a new Democratic administration, and he weighs in on trade with neighboring countries in the Middle Eastern region. Filmed on January 12, 2021. Key Learnings: Despite an overall economy that has been rapidly contracting because of U.S. sanctions and weak oil prices, Iran has one of the best-performing stock markets. Iran's stock market is dominated by retail investors with foreign ones making up less than half a percent of the market cap. Wojtal looks for companies that have pure export exposure, and he has been able to find companies with exports in the region that are usually not affected by sanctions.

Insurance

Carly Fiorina: Big tech Has Unprecedented Economic Power

Carly Fiorina, founder and chairman of Carly Fiorina Enterprises and 2016 Republican Presidential candidate, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the value and challenges of regulating big tech and the enormous economic power it has amassed across the globe. Hailing from an extensive career in tech and finance as former CEO of HP, she discusses the opportunities that business can bring to the political table and the challenges she faced as a woman in male-dominated industries, and the value of regulating big tech. She also shares her views on current events from the storming of the Capitol to the political climate to the effects of the pandemic on public policy. Filmed on January 11, 2021. Key Learnings: Fiorina argues that focusing on results rather than partisan issues encourages competition and accountability to restore political systems and revitalize the economy.

Private Equity

Iran: Investing in One of the Best-Performing Stock Markets

Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal welcomes back Maciej Wojtal, founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, an investment fund devoted to Iranian equities, to discuss how he's identified a diversified economy in Iran despite decades of sanctions and geopolitical risks. His interest in Iran was sparked by the nuclear deal brokered by President Obama in 2015 where he found a stock market that had been operating for more than two decades and included nearly 600 companies with $200 million in daily liquidity. His fund gives Western investors access to fast-growing businesses with low valuations in an array of industries—from utilities and automotive to commodities and agriculture. He shares his perspective on managing volatility as well as how the U.S.-Iran relations are expected to change under a new Democratic administration, and he weighs in on trade with neighboring countries in the Middle Eastern region. Filmed on January 12, 2021. Key Learnings: Despite an overall economy that has been rapidly contracting because of U.S. sanctions and weak oil prices, Iran has one of the best-performing stock markets. Iran's stock market is dominated by retail investors with foreign ones making up less than half a percent of the market cap. Wojtal looks for companies that have pure export exposure, and he has been able to find companies with exports in the region that are usually not affected by sanctions.

Short Selling

Capital Destruction and Mimetic Desire in Tech and Finance

Byrne Hobart, writer at The Diff, joins Taylor Pearson, co-chief investment officer of Mutiny Fund, for a wide-ranging discussion on everything from monopolization within technological companies to "Straussian" readings of Jerome Powell and Anthony Fauci to what the 800-year chart of real interest rates indicates about the history of capital markets. Hobart scrutinizes what the tendency of technological firms to mimic the major winners in the space means for the future of technological innovation and the venture capital industry as well as the capital that tracks it. After Pearson asks Hobart about the notion of "optionality" as applied to Airbnb, they discuss their risk/reward analysis of Bitcoin as well as the recent companies that went public via special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). Filmed on January 8th, 2021. Key learnings: This interview contains many contradictory propositions such as the notion that bubbles can be useful and that citizens living during the fall of an empire have a better quality of life than those that lived during its rise. Hobart argues that SPACs as a whole offer little upside and that Bitcoin has a favorable (if skewed) risk/reward profile.

Activist

Jeffrey Gundlach -- Waiting for the Next Big Trade (RE-RELEASE)

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has evolved his investment style over the years, and although he is still the "bond king", increasingly he has become multi-asset with a focus on getting the macro right. In this interview with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, Gundlach explains how he thinks about time frames, position sizing based on asset class, and how his style changes based on whether the market is alpha or beta driven. He also provides his current outlook, arguing that there is not much opportunity in this environment and that the most important thing at the moment is managing risk while patiently waiting for the next big trade. He also touches on timely topics like the potential for a wave of insolvency, why he believes we are in the midst of The Fourth Turning, his skeptical view of bitcoin, and why he is bullish on the dollar in the short term despite his highest conviction macro view being pronounced dollar weakness. Filmed on October 1, 2020.

Energy

Surge Copper CEO buys the dip

Today, Ted Dixon reviews the January 15th morning report that looks at BC junior miner Surge Copper (SURG).