Ultra Money Stream

Daily Briefing - October 26, 2020

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to talk through the social, political, and economic ramifications of the various U.S. presidential election outcomes in tandem with the risk of a more forceful and perhaps lethal second wave of COVID-19. Ash and Ed discuss how the policy outcomes in a Biden administration are more limited than what a Trump administration would be such as the fate of FAANG and Trump’s recent executive order regarding the dismissal of civil servants. They also consider what would happen to stimulus after the election, how markets have priced in a blue wave and how the outcome could be deviations away from expectations, and what the policy response might be to a rise in hospitalizations. Ed also explains what the hysteresis effect would be on the economy and consumers and how that could lead to more durable consumption changes post-COVID. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes China’s Ant Group raising $34 billion, making it the largest IPO in history.

Clouds move over Liberty Gold as industry risks rise

Liberty Gold (LGD) has been a big winner following INK's November 21, 2019 report on the stock. However, Liberty's outlook has now clouded over.

Raoul Pal: The Biggest Trade in the World

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, arrives to the Daily Briefing frothing at the mouth with Bitcoin bullishness. Senior editor, Ash Bennington, tries in vain to contain Raoul's enthusiasm, but with Bitcoin up over 20% this month, Raoul's zeal simply cannot be restrained, and he proceeds to go at length about how this asset will become a global reserve asset as the world moves along an adoption curve of trust. Raoul and Ash proceed to discuss the ongoing progress to make crypto-assets easier to own for RIAs and institutional investors, and Raoul reflects on the relative risk/reward profile of bitcoin at a time with record low bond yields and a stock market at all-time highs. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down the new Frankenstein of the fixed income world: the CLO ETF.

Macro Mayhem: Filtering the Signal from the Noise

Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes back Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, to analyze how divergent indicators in inflation and growth are revealing trading signals for bonds, commodities, and equities going forward. McCullough breaks down his "Quad"-based investment process, going in greater depth on how "risk ranges" affect his trading across various asset classes such as corn, Chinese and Spanish equities, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Pal and McCullough explore how investors should think about liquidity risks, position sizing, and risk allocation, and the two discuss the role of these factors during a time with such confounding economic data. Filmed on October 21, 2020. Key Learnings: The interplay of volatility, volume and price offers asymmetric opportunities across all asset classes. The rate of change of inflation and growth can be an effective way to determine when to bet on high-conviction trades.

Contrarian alert: Insiders buying the recent Enerplus lows

INK issues another contrarian alert on Friday in the oil patch. Enerplus (ERF) has exposure to both oil and natural gas in the US and insiders have been buying near recent lows.

Most Popular

Real Vision Oct 09, 2020
Daily Briefing - October 9, 2020
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to look back at market action and make sense of several secular trends. Raoul shares several of the lessons from his interview with "The Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach, which leads into a discussion about changes to risk appetite and time horizon within the hedge fund industry. Raoul and Ash then discuss the latest banning of crypto derivatives for amateur investors. They close by discussing wage deflation and software's ever-tightening grip on the economy.
Real Vision Oct 16, 2020
Daily Briefing - October 16, 2020
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, look forward to the relevant themes. Ed adds to David Rosenberg's recent comments that "organically, the economy is still in recession," and he and Ash reflect on the recent success of Sweden's pandemic shutdown response. They then put a week of bank earnings into context and analyze Warren Buffett selling the bulk of Berkshire Hathaway's holdings in Wells Fargo. In the intro, Ash speaks to Real Vision editor, Jack Farley, about "priming" in the markets for distressed debt. For reference, the video Ed discusses at the beginning can be found here: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/the-breakdown-what-all-financial-crises-have-in-common-5f89ad21d788a45104be209e.
Real Vision Oct 23, 2020
Raoul Pal: The Biggest Trade in the World
Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, arrives to the Daily Briefing frothing at the mouth with Bitcoin bullishness. Senior editor, Ash Bennington, tries in vain to contain Raoul's enthusiasm, but with Bitcoin up over 20% this month, Raoul's zeal simply cannot be restrained, and he proceeds to go at length about how this asset will become a global reserve asset as the world moves along an adoption curve of trust. Raoul and Ash proceed to discuss the ongoing progress to make crypto-assets easier to own for RIAs and institutional investors, and Raoul reflects on the relative risk/reward profile of bitcoin at a time with record low bond yields and a stock market at all-time highs. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down the new Frankenstein of the fixed income world: the CLO ETF.
Real Vision Oct 13, 2020
Daily Briefing - October 13, 2020
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of big moves today in equities, bonds, and the dollar. Greer analyzes the latest CPI reading through the lens of the ECB’s piggy-back announcement that it too would let inflation run hot. Greer then breaks down today’s bond rally as the dollar retracement coincided with significant sector rotations in the S&P 500. Bennington and Greer then analyze the latest newsflow from Washington D.C, including the status of President Trump’s health, the progress of stimulus talks in Congress, and the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. In the intro, Ash speaks to editor Jack Farley about the latest earnings reports from U.S. banks JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup.

Starting Points

Stock Ideas

Clouds move over Liberty Gold as industry risks rise

Liberty Gold (LGD) has been a big winner following INK's November 21, 2019 report on the stock. However, Liberty's outlook has now clouded over.

Investing Strategy

Macro Mayhem: Filtering the Signal from the Noise

Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes back Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, to analyze how divergent indicators in inflation and growth are revealing trading signals for bonds, commodities, and equities going forward. McCullough breaks down his "Quad"-based investment process, going in greater depth on how "risk ranges" affect his trading across various asset classes such as corn, Chinese and Spanish equities, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Pal and McCullough explore how investors should think about liquidity risks, position sizing, and risk allocation, and the two discuss the role of these factors during a time with such confounding economic data. Filmed on October 21, 2020. Key Learnings: The interplay of volatility, volume and price offers asymmetric opportunities across all asset classes. The rate of change of inflation and growth can be an effective way to determine when to bet on high-conviction trades.

Policy Disruption

Clouds move over Liberty Gold as industry risks rise

Liberty Gold (LGD) has been a big winner following INK's November 21, 2019 report on the stock. However, Liberty's outlook has now clouded over.

Innovation

Raoul Pal: The Biggest Trade in the World

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, arrives to the Daily Briefing frothing at the mouth with Bitcoin bullishness. Senior editor, Ash Bennington, tries in vain to contain Raoul's enthusiasm, but with Bitcoin up over 20% this month, Raoul's zeal simply cannot be restrained, and he proceeds to go at length about how this asset will become a global reserve asset as the world moves along an adoption curve of trust. Raoul and Ash proceed to discuss the ongoing progress to make crypto-assets easier to own for RIAs and institutional investors, and Raoul reflects on the relative risk/reward profile of bitcoin at a time with record low bond yields and a stock market at all-time highs. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down the new Frankenstein of the fixed income world: the CLO ETF.

Style Channels

Contrarian

Joel Greenblatt: Common Sense

With a phenomenal investment track record greater than perhaps even Warren Buffett and George Soros, Joel Greenblatt is renowned as one of the world's greatest investors in history. Yet recently, he has turned his gaze beyond markets to focus his attention on fixing problems in society, ranging from banking and retirement to education and even immigration. In this interview with managing editor Ed Harrison, Greenblatt discusses his common sense solutions to society's ills, using the same analytical framework that brought him tremendous success in the investment world. Greenblatt also shares his investment philosophy and current market outlook. Filmed on October 19, 2020.

Growth

Raoul Pal: The Biggest Trade in the World

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, arrives to the Daily Briefing frothing at the mouth with Bitcoin bullishness. Senior editor, Ash Bennington, tries in vain to contain Raoul's enthusiasm, but with Bitcoin up over 20% this month, Raoul's zeal simply cannot be restrained, and he proceeds to go at length about how this asset will become a global reserve asset as the world moves along an adoption curve of trust. Raoul and Ash proceed to discuss the ongoing progress to make crypto-assets easier to own for RIAs and institutional investors, and Raoul reflects on the relative risk/reward profile of bitcoin at a time with record low bond yields and a stock market at all-time highs. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down the new Frankenstein of the fixed income world: the CLO ETF.

High Yield & Income

Macro Mayhem: Filtering the Signal from the Noise

Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes back Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, to analyze how divergent indicators in inflation and growth are revealing trading signals for bonds, commodities, and equities going forward. McCullough breaks down his "Quad"-based investment process, going in greater depth on how "risk ranges" affect his trading across various asset classes such as corn, Chinese and Spanish equities, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Pal and McCullough explore how investors should think about liquidity risks, position sizing, and risk allocation, and the two discuss the role of these factors during a time with such confounding economic data. Filmed on October 21, 2020. Key Learnings: The interplay of volatility, volume and price offers asymmetric opportunities across all asset classes. The rate of change of inflation and growth can be an effective way to determine when to bet on high-conviction trades.

Cryptos, Gold, & Hard Assets

Clouds move over Liberty Gold as industry risks rise

Liberty Gold (LGD) has been a big winner following INK's November 21, 2019 report on the stock. However, Liberty's outlook has now clouded over.

Real Vision

Real Vision Oct 26, 2020
Daily Briefing - October 26, 2020
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to talk through the social, political, and economic ramifications of the various U.S. presidential election outcomes in tandem with the risk of a more forceful and perhaps lethal second wave of COVID-19. Ash and Ed discuss how the policy outcomes in a Biden administration are more limited than what a Trump administration would be such as the fate of FAANG and Trump’s recent executive order regarding the dismissal of civil servants. They also consider what would happen to stimulus after the election, how markets have priced in a blue wave and how the outcome could be deviations away from expectations, and what the policy response might be to a rise in hospitalizations. Ed also explains what the hysteresis effect would be on the economy and consumers and how that could lead to more durable consumption changes post-COVID. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes China’s Ant Group raising $34 billion, making it the largest IPO in history.
Real Vision Oct 23, 2020
Raoul Pal: The Biggest Trade in the World
Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, arrives to the Daily Briefing frothing at the mouth with Bitcoin bullishness. Senior editor, Ash Bennington, tries in vain to contain Raoul's enthusiasm, but with Bitcoin up over 20% this month, Raoul's zeal simply cannot be restrained, and he proceeds to go at length about how this asset will become a global reserve asset as the world moves along an adoption curve of trust. Raoul and Ash proceed to discuss the ongoing progress to make crypto-assets easier to own for RIAs and institutional investors, and Raoul reflects on the relative risk/reward profile of bitcoin at a time with record low bond yields and a stock market at all-time highs. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down the new Frankenstein of the fixed income world: the CLO ETF.
Real Vision Oct 23, 2020
Macro Mayhem: Filtering the Signal from the Noise
Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes back Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, to analyze how divergent indicators in inflation and growth are revealing trading signals for bonds, commodities, and equities going forward. McCullough breaks down his "Quad"-based investment process, going in greater depth on how "risk ranges" affect his trading across various asset classes such as corn, Chinese and Spanish equities, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Pal and McCullough explore how investors should think about liquidity risks, position sizing, and risk allocation, and the two discuss the role of these factors during a time with such confounding economic data. Filmed on October 21, 2020. Key Learnings: The interplay of volatility, volume and price offers asymmetric opportunities across all asset classes. The rate of change of inflation and growth can be an effective way to determine when to bet on high-conviction trades.
Real Vision Oct 22, 2020
Daily Briefing - October 22, 2020
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, talks to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, about some of the most recent macroeconomic data releases such as jobless claims and existing home sales and what they portend for the economy. Boockvar also explains why recent comments from the Fed and the level on the 10-year Treasury bond matter. What this means: The macro is telling Boockvar to watch for an uptick in cyclical inflation and he's using it in conjunction with bottoms-up analysis to build a portfolio. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes the surge in corporate bonds as companies have done so much refinancing in one year and she looks at the new jobless claims out today which are at the lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic hit in March.

INK Videos

INK Videos Oct 25, 2020
Clouds move over Liberty Gold as industry risks rise
Liberty Gold (LGD) has been a big winner following INK's November 21, 2019 report on the stock. However, Liberty's outlook has now clouded over.
INK Videos Oct 22, 2020
Contrarian alert: Insiders buying the recent Enerplus lows
INK issues another contrarian alert on Friday in the oil patch. Enerplus (ERF) has exposure to both oil and natural gas in the US and insiders have been buying near recent lows.
INK Videos Oct 21, 2020
Binns buys more BIGG Digital as PayPal bets on Bitcoin
The Wednesday news that PaylPal (PYPL) was entering the cryptocurrency business had investors in a crypto buying mood with Bitcoin jumping about US$900 on the day. However, Bitcoin was not the only cryptocurrency-related asset rising. Today, INK Research looks at a tiny Canadian blockchain stock that rallied yesterday. The company is working on a key regulatory initiative that could result in a big breakthrough.
INK Videos Oct 20, 2020
High Arctic value play already paying off for insiders
In our Top 30 Energy report released Tuesday, INK made the case for natural gas and clean energy stocks under a Biden Administration. However, in the October 20th Real Vision Daily Briefing, Thomas Thornton went further, making the case for the entire Energy sector if Joe Biden wins the White House. With that in mind, today INK looks at an oil services stock that is already acting as if better days are ahead.