Ultra Money Stream

Who Is Buying Tech? (And Why?)

The Nasdaq Composite is leading the major U.S. equity indexes higher today, as investors step into a tech-stock dip amid the traditional late summer volume lull. At the top of today’s Daily Briefing, Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen gets right to the point with Hedge Fund Telemetry founder Thomas Thornton: Who’s buying this tech dip? Scaling out from recent price action and a broader discussion of positioning, Andreas and Tommy talk about current economic data, including a decline in initial claims for unemployment benefits and an upside surprise from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s monthly manufacturing index for August. Andreas also asks Tommy about what looks like a pump-and-dump of Bed Bath & Beyond shares. And we hear from Rob Arnott about the risks of betting against bubbles. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO.

What Are They Smoking on Wall Street?

“What are they smoking?” is what smart-beta pioneer Rob Arnott wonders about Wall Street’s inflation forecasts through the end of 2022. In conversation with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, Rob, the founder of Research Affiliates, makes the case for structurally higher inflation. He believes there’s a strong chance the Consumer Price Index could hit a fresh high before the year is out. He also thinks higher prices are going to stick, with the CPI printing materially higher through 2023 and into 2024. Rob talks about what the Federal Reserve can and can't do in such an environment, explains the real message the yield curve is sending (it’s not what you think), and identifies attractive areas of the market right now. As Rob puts it, “Successful investing isn’t hard, but it’s painful.” Recorded on August 12, 2022.

Have We Reached Peak Hawkishness?

Although the decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points was unanimous, minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show multiple officials acknowledged a risk that the central bank could tighten “by more than necessary” in its effort to control inflation. Officials also observed that the bulk of tightening effects have yet to be felt, noting that unemployment would likely rise from here. Underscoring the global nature of this inflation phenomenon, the U.K. Consumer Price Index surged to a 40-year high of 10.1% in July. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the FOMC minutes, what recent data, including U.S. retail sales, suggest about the Fed’s future path, and the worrying stagflationary signs from overseas. We also hear from Roger Hirst about what the CPI and interest rates can tell us about a recession. Watch the entire episode of Insider Talks featuring Roger Hirst here: https://rvtv.io/3wbmO5K.

Why This Energy Crisis Will Get Hotter

U.S. equity indexes continue to go higher despite accumulating evidence of slowing domestic and international economic activity and rising pressure on people and government in Europe and elsewhere due to energy and food shortages. The situation has grown particularly acute in Germany, where sentiment continues to slide amid drastically reduced natural gas supplies and a historic drought. Authorities there are reversing policy to keep at least three nuclear reactors running and supplying baseload power, as feelings about the once-verboten technology shift amid a resource-strangling war in Eastern Europe. Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator, to talk about what energy markets are saying about global growth. We also hear from Wouter Jongbloed on the broader context and potential implications of Europe’s energy crisis. Watch the full interview with Wouter Jongbloed and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3A4B95n.

Will This Winter Be the Worst of Times for Europe?

The war in Eastern Europe has devolved into one of attrition, with no end to hostilities on the horizon. Western policy makers are trying to cope with an energy crisis created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and exacerbated by decades of short-sighted long-term planning. Inflation is a problem over there, too, and growth prospects are even worse. Wouter Jongbloed, the head of political risk analysis at Exante Data, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the risks this energy crisis poses to Europe and whether a “standstill” between Moscow and Kyiv would have any bearing on markets and the broader region. This is also a crisis of the European Union’s authority: Will it be able to hold member states in line on natural gas consumption cuts, or will others go the way of Hungary and strike out on their own? Jongbloed also shares his thoughts on Taiwan and China in light of Ukraine and Russia and the impact on portfolios of rising geopolitical risk premia. Recorded on August 11, 2022.

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Starting Points

Stock Ideas

Who Is Buying Tech? (And Why?)

The Nasdaq Composite is leading the major U.S. equity indexes higher today, as investors step into a tech-stock dip amid the traditional late summer volume lull. At the top of today’s Daily Briefing, Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen gets right to the point with Hedge Fund Telemetry founder Thomas Thornton: Who’s buying this tech dip? Scaling out from recent price action and a broader discussion of positioning, Andreas and Tommy talk about current economic data, including a decline in initial claims for unemployment benefits and an upside surprise from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s monthly manufacturing index for August. Andreas also asks Tommy about what looks like a pump-and-dump of Bed Bath & Beyond shares. And we hear from Rob Arnott about the risks of betting against bubbles. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO.

Investing Strategy

The Market Doesn't Have to Crash

The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for July ticked up to 55.1 from 51.5 in June, as a sub-measure of consumer expectations reached a three-month high. And U.S. stocks continue to surge on the hope inflation has peaked. News from overseas continues to reflect an unsettled, at best, macroeconomic environment, with the U.K. economy shrinking for the first time since the pandemic lockdowns of 2020, water levels on the Rhone River falling to a critical mark due to historic drought, and credit growth in China slowing sharply on sluggish demand. Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about inflation, recent economic data, risk appetite amid what remains a fraught geo-macro moment, and why this might be the most hated equity market rally ever. Is it possible that stocks have already seen their lows and that this rally has real legs?

Policy Disruption

The Market Doesn't Have to Crash

The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for July ticked up to 55.1 from 51.5 in June, as a sub-measure of consumer expectations reached a three-month high. And U.S. stocks continue to surge on the hope inflation has peaked. News from overseas continues to reflect an unsettled, at best, macroeconomic environment, with the U.K. economy shrinking for the first time since the pandemic lockdowns of 2020, water levels on the Rhone River falling to a critical mark due to historic drought, and credit growth in China slowing sharply on sluggish demand. Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about inflation, recent economic data, risk appetite amid what remains a fraught geo-macro moment, and why this might be the most hated equity market rally ever. Is it possible that stocks have already seen their lows and that this rally has real legs?

Innovation

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Growth

What Are They Smoking on Wall Street?

“What are they smoking?” is what smart-beta pioneer Rob Arnott wonders about Wall Street’s inflation forecasts through the end of 2022. In conversation with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, Rob, the founder of Research Affiliates, makes the case for structurally higher inflation. He believes there’s a strong chance the Consumer Price Index could hit a fresh high before the year is out. He also thinks higher prices are going to stick, with the CPI printing materially higher through 2023 and into 2024. Rob talks about what the Federal Reserve can and can't do in such an environment, explains the real message the yield curve is sending (it’s not what you think), and identifies attractive areas of the market right now. As Rob puts it, “Successful investing isn’t hard, but it’s painful.” Recorded on August 12, 2022.

High Yield & Income

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We head back to the REIT space where we find another dividend payer high up in our INK Edge Rankings.

Cryptos, Gold, & Hard Assets

US market upgrades and a Nevada Reward for Augusta Gold? INK preview May 25 2022

We head back to Nevada to look at a Richard Warke play and quickly review an upbeat turn of events in the US market. INK, Ultra and Vivaville Discord members can down load today's US and Morning Reports under this video.

Real Vision

Real Vision Aug 18, 2022
Who Is Buying Tech? (And Why?)
The Nasdaq Composite is leading the major U.S. equity indexes higher today, as investors step into a tech-stock dip amid the traditional late summer volume lull. At the top of today’s Daily Briefing, Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen gets right to the point with Hedge Fund Telemetry founder Thomas Thornton: Who’s buying this tech dip? Scaling out from recent price action and a broader discussion of positioning, Andreas and Tommy talk about current economic data, including a decline in initial claims for unemployment benefits and an upside surprise from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s monthly manufacturing index for August. Andreas also asks Tommy about what looks like a pump-and-dump of Bed Bath & Beyond shares. And we hear from Rob Arnott about the risks of betting against bubbles. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO.
Real Vision Aug 18, 2022
What Are They Smoking on Wall Street?
“What are they smoking?” is what smart-beta pioneer Rob Arnott wonders about Wall Street’s inflation forecasts through the end of 2022. In conversation with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, Rob, the founder of Research Affiliates, makes the case for structurally higher inflation. He believes there’s a strong chance the Consumer Price Index could hit a fresh high before the year is out. He also thinks higher prices are going to stick, with the CPI printing materially higher through 2023 and into 2024. Rob talks about what the Federal Reserve can and can't do in such an environment, explains the real message the yield curve is sending (it’s not what you think), and identifies attractive areas of the market right now. As Rob puts it, “Successful investing isn’t hard, but it’s painful.” Recorded on August 12, 2022.
Real Vision Aug 17, 2022
Have We Reached Peak Hawkishness?
Although the decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points was unanimous, minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show multiple officials acknowledged a risk that the central bank could tighten “by more than necessary” in its effort to control inflation. Officials also observed that the bulk of tightening effects have yet to be felt, noting that unemployment would likely rise from here. Underscoring the global nature of this inflation phenomenon, the U.K. Consumer Price Index surged to a 40-year high of 10.1% in July. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the FOMC minutes, what recent data, including U.S. retail sales, suggest about the Fed’s future path, and the worrying stagflationary signs from overseas. We also hear from Roger Hirst about what the CPI and interest rates can tell us about a recession. Watch the entire episode of Insider Talks featuring Roger Hirst here: https://rvtv.io/3wbmO5K.
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Why This Energy Crisis Will Get Hotter
U.S. equity indexes continue to go higher despite accumulating evidence of slowing domestic and international economic activity and rising pressure on people and government in Europe and elsewhere due to energy and food shortages. The situation has grown particularly acute in Germany, where sentiment continues to slide amid drastically reduced natural gas supplies and a historic drought. Authorities there are reversing policy to keep at least three nuclear reactors running and supplying baseload power, as feelings about the once-verboten technology shift amid a resource-strangling war in Eastern Europe. Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator, to talk about what energy markets are saying about global growth. We also hear from Wouter Jongbloed on the broader context and potential implications of Europe’s energy crisis. Watch the full interview with Wouter Jongbloed and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3A4B95n.

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