Ultra Money Stream

Raoul Pal: Is Macro "Dead"?

Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to introduce Real Vision’s latest campaign, “Welcome to the Exponential Age.” Raoul will be going in-depth on his new macro framework, the Exponential Age, and he and Ed tease their interview that’s being released on Monday. They also contextualize today’s U.S. jobs report, which fell far from economists’ expectations, and Raoul explains what the Exponential Age means for employment going forward.

Lawrence Lewitinn: The Skeptical Insider

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington sits down with Lawrence Lewitinn, managing editor and host of First Mover at Coin Desk, to discuss the crypto markets, ETFs, use cases, value propositions, and long-term viability. Lewitinn views the crypto markets as incredibly thin, fueled by hope and greed, and he discusses the power of surpassing psychological barriers like round numbers. This has been prevalent in the recent increase of Ethereum's value as it crossed the $3000 threshold. With its value quadrupling, the trajectory of hope and trust in the system grows with it, leading to a positive change in the global ecosystem. However, Lewitinn also points to the issues whales such as Elon Musk can cause—if they were to throw all their holdings into the market at all once, that would pose a huge problem for blockchains such as Bitcoin because there would not be enough buyers in the space, triggering a huge wave of liquidations. Lewitinn states that while Bitcoin and crypto have huge potential, we do not know yet if there will be a better version as Bitcoin has yet to achieve one of its original goals. Lewitinn asks, "Would Bitcoin be at $50,000 if not for the pandemic? Would the space be as we know it today if Trump had won re-election?" Ultimately, the future is unknown. Filmed May 3rd, 2021. Key learnings: According to Lewitinn, when one reads the Bitcoin paper, it is elegant and solves the problem of transactions in trustless spaces. However, it requires a lot of work and energy. Further, it is more successful than it should have been when it started. In relation to the crypto industrial complex, Lewitinn believes that Bitcoin will not be the end-all, be-all solution as different specializations emerge. He views the explosion in the space as still being in the early innings. Even as there are a lot of unknowns that still exist in this market, what we do know is that Ethereum is becoming increasingly more viable in today’s society. Lewitinn believes that many of the things attributed to blockchain technology will live as an Ethereum specialty rather than Bitcoin fantasy.

Are Interest Rate Traders Calling the Fed's Bluff?

What does the wild world of interest rate derivatives say about the Federal Reserve's credibility? Nancy Davis, chief investment officer of Quadratic Capital, takes viewers deep into the esoteric world of constant maturity swaps, forward swap curves, and options on interest rate swaps ("swaptions") to illustrate this. In this conversation with Real Vision editor Jack Farley, Davis notes several key indicators that cause interest rate traders to believe the Federal Reserve will tighten policy far sooner than it claims. Davis, the founder of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF ($IVOL), argues that her ETF, which consists largely of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as well as over-the-counter fixed income options, will perform favorably in risk-on, risk-off, as well as stagflationary environments (Davis notes that $IVOL has posted positive returns every quarter since its inception in 2019). Farley and Davis look at insightful charts such as the backwardation of the forward swap curve, the spread between swap rates of different tenors, real interest rates, as well as the correlations between equities and interest rate volatility. Filmed on May 5, 2021. Key learnings: Davis argues that the forward curve for dollar swaps is pricing in rate hikes far sooner than the Federal Reserve maintains. She makes the case that interest rate volatility is an effective way to hedge duration risk and argues that it is more preferable than taking on credit risk.

Exco Technologies short positions are cruising for a bruising

Exco Technologies (XTC) is turning out to be a case study on contrarian insider signals. Today, INK Research provides an update on the stock which it has been covering since Exco pulled out of its prolonged bear market in 2019.

Gold Breaks Out As Labor Market Trouble Endures

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley evaluate price action in markets as the bond market refuses to budge, some chaos in single stocks today has been hidden by relatively flat U.S. equity indexes, and gold is breaking out of its range, surging beyond $1800. Ed also takes an in-depth look at today's economic data on initial and continuing jobless claims as well as the latest news flow on companies' struggles to hire workers even as unemployment rate remains in elevated territory. Jack reports from the trenches of the over-the-counter interest rate swaps market and speculates on what it indicates about investors' trust in the Fed.

Most Popular

Real Vision Dec 30, 2019
Look Back at It (2019)
In the last episode of the year, Drew takes a look back at the most important themes we covered on "The One Thing," from investment process to trade war.
Real Vision Dec 16, 2019
The Problem with Passive: Part II
What happens to financial markets when passive strategies become the norm? This week, Drew breaks down the conversation between Mike Green and Raoul Pal to understand how massive that passive strategies are.
Real Vision Dec 23, 2019
Good Transitions
Does the movement to green energy require further investment in fossil fuel technologies? This week, Drew breaks Rob West’s recent presentation to see where the energy industry is headed over the next 30 years.
INK Videos Dec 17, 2019
Aurora Cannabis stock unlikely to enjoy new highs soon
INK Research Morning Report Dec. 17, 2019: While INK Research has a short-term bullish reading for Canadian cannabis stocks as a group, based on INK Edge rankings grower Aurora Cannabis (ACB) could lag the pack.

Starting Points

Stock Ideas

Exco Technologies short positions are cruising for a bruising

Exco Technologies (XTC) is turning out to be a case study on contrarian insider signals. Today, INK Research provides an update on the stock which it has been covering since Exco pulled out of its prolonged bear market in 2019.

Investing Strategy

Are Interest Rate Traders Calling the Fed's Bluff?

What does the wild world of interest rate derivatives say about the Federal Reserve's credibility? Nancy Davis, chief investment officer of Quadratic Capital, takes viewers deep into the esoteric world of constant maturity swaps, forward swap curves, and options on interest rate swaps ("swaptions") to illustrate this. In this conversation with Real Vision editor Jack Farley, Davis notes several key indicators that cause interest rate traders to believe the Federal Reserve will tighten policy far sooner than it claims. Davis, the founder of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF ($IVOL), argues that her ETF, which consists largely of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as well as over-the-counter fixed income options, will perform favorably in risk-on, risk-off, as well as stagflationary environments (Davis notes that $IVOL has posted positive returns every quarter since its inception in 2019). Farley and Davis look at insightful charts such as the backwardation of the forward swap curve, the spread between swap rates of different tenors, real interest rates, as well as the correlations between equities and interest rate volatility. Filmed on May 5, 2021. Key learnings: Davis argues that the forward curve for dollar swaps is pricing in rate hikes far sooner than the Federal Reserve maintains. She makes the case that interest rate volatility is an effective way to hedge duration risk and argues that it is more preferable than taking on credit risk.

Policy Disruption

Are Interest Rate Traders Calling the Fed's Bluff?

What does the wild world of interest rate derivatives say about the Federal Reserve's credibility? Nancy Davis, chief investment officer of Quadratic Capital, takes viewers deep into the esoteric world of constant maturity swaps, forward swap curves, and options on interest rate swaps ("swaptions") to illustrate this. In this conversation with Real Vision editor Jack Farley, Davis notes several key indicators that cause interest rate traders to believe the Federal Reserve will tighten policy far sooner than it claims. Davis, the founder of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF ($IVOL), argues that her ETF, which consists largely of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as well as over-the-counter fixed income options, will perform favorably in risk-on, risk-off, as well as stagflationary environments (Davis notes that $IVOL has posted positive returns every quarter since its inception in 2019). Farley and Davis look at insightful charts such as the backwardation of the forward swap curve, the spread between swap rates of different tenors, real interest rates, as well as the correlations between equities and interest rate volatility. Filmed on May 5, 2021. Key learnings: Davis argues that the forward curve for dollar swaps is pricing in rate hikes far sooner than the Federal Reserve maintains. She makes the case that interest rate volatility is an effective way to hedge duration risk and argues that it is more preferable than taking on credit risk.

Innovation

Are Interest Rate Traders Calling the Fed's Bluff?

What does the wild world of interest rate derivatives say about the Federal Reserve's credibility? Nancy Davis, chief investment officer of Quadratic Capital, takes viewers deep into the esoteric world of constant maturity swaps, forward swap curves, and options on interest rate swaps ("swaptions") to illustrate this. In this conversation with Real Vision editor Jack Farley, Davis notes several key indicators that cause interest rate traders to believe the Federal Reserve will tighten policy far sooner than it claims. Davis, the founder of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF ($IVOL), argues that her ETF, which consists largely of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as well as over-the-counter fixed income options, will perform favorably in risk-on, risk-off, as well as stagflationary environments (Davis notes that $IVOL has posted positive returns every quarter since its inception in 2019). Farley and Davis look at insightful charts such as the backwardation of the forward swap curve, the spread between swap rates of different tenors, real interest rates, as well as the correlations between equities and interest rate volatility. Filmed on May 5, 2021. Key learnings: Davis argues that the forward curve for dollar swaps is pricing in rate hikes far sooner than the Federal Reserve maintains. She makes the case that interest rate volatility is an effective way to hedge duration risk and argues that it is more preferable than taking on credit risk.

Style Channels

Contrarian

Warren Buffett on Stocks and Inflation - Plus the Interest Rate Swirl

Real Vision managing Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down today’s market action in stocks, bonds, and commodities. Farley interprets Warren Buffett’s latest comments at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders’ meeting, and he and Harrison discuss Buffett’s statements on inflation and equity performance as well as the announcement of Buffett’s successor. Harrison evaluates recent moves in the bond market and shares his views on whether currencies or interest rates will be the “release valve” for volatility as equities grind higher.

Growth

Are Interest Rate Traders Calling the Fed's Bluff?

What does the wild world of interest rate derivatives say about the Federal Reserve's credibility? Nancy Davis, chief investment officer of Quadratic Capital, takes viewers deep into the esoteric world of constant maturity swaps, forward swap curves, and options on interest rate swaps ("swaptions") to illustrate this. In this conversation with Real Vision editor Jack Farley, Davis notes several key indicators that cause interest rate traders to believe the Federal Reserve will tighten policy far sooner than it claims. Davis, the founder of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF ($IVOL), argues that her ETF, which consists largely of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as well as over-the-counter fixed income options, will perform favorably in risk-on, risk-off, as well as stagflationary environments (Davis notes that $IVOL has posted positive returns every quarter since its inception in 2019). Farley and Davis look at insightful charts such as the backwardation of the forward swap curve, the spread between swap rates of different tenors, real interest rates, as well as the correlations between equities and interest rate volatility. Filmed on May 5, 2021. Key learnings: Davis argues that the forward curve for dollar swaps is pricing in rate hikes far sooner than the Federal Reserve maintains. She makes the case that interest rate volatility is an effective way to hedge duration risk and argues that it is more preferable than taking on credit risk.

High Yield & Income

Are Interest Rate Traders Calling the Fed's Bluff?

What does the wild world of interest rate derivatives say about the Federal Reserve's credibility? Nancy Davis, chief investment officer of Quadratic Capital, takes viewers deep into the esoteric world of constant maturity swaps, forward swap curves, and options on interest rate swaps ("swaptions") to illustrate this. In this conversation with Real Vision editor Jack Farley, Davis notes several key indicators that cause interest rate traders to believe the Federal Reserve will tighten policy far sooner than it claims. Davis, the founder of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF ($IVOL), argues that her ETF, which consists largely of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as well as over-the-counter fixed income options, will perform favorably in risk-on, risk-off, as well as stagflationary environments (Davis notes that $IVOL has posted positive returns every quarter since its inception in 2019). Farley and Davis look at insightful charts such as the backwardation of the forward swap curve, the spread between swap rates of different tenors, real interest rates, as well as the correlations between equities and interest rate volatility. Filmed on May 5, 2021. Key learnings: Davis argues that the forward curve for dollar swaps is pricing in rate hikes far sooner than the Federal Reserve maintains. She makes the case that interest rate volatility is an effective way to hedge duration risk and argues that it is more preferable than taking on credit risk.

Cryptos, Gold, & Hard Assets

Are Interest Rate Traders Calling the Fed's Bluff?

What does the wild world of interest rate derivatives say about the Federal Reserve's credibility? Nancy Davis, chief investment officer of Quadratic Capital, takes viewers deep into the esoteric world of constant maturity swaps, forward swap curves, and options on interest rate swaps ("swaptions") to illustrate this. In this conversation with Real Vision editor Jack Farley, Davis notes several key indicators that cause interest rate traders to believe the Federal Reserve will tighten policy far sooner than it claims. Davis, the founder of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF ($IVOL), argues that her ETF, which consists largely of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as well as over-the-counter fixed income options, will perform favorably in risk-on, risk-off, as well as stagflationary environments (Davis notes that $IVOL has posted positive returns every quarter since its inception in 2019). Farley and Davis look at insightful charts such as the backwardation of the forward swap curve, the spread between swap rates of different tenors, real interest rates, as well as the correlations between equities and interest rate volatility. Filmed on May 5, 2021. Key learnings: Davis argues that the forward curve for dollar swaps is pricing in rate hikes far sooner than the Federal Reserve maintains. She makes the case that interest rate volatility is an effective way to hedge duration risk and argues that it is more preferable than taking on credit risk.

Real Vision

Real Vision May 07, 2021
Raoul Pal: Is Macro "Dead"?
Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to introduce Real Vision’s latest campaign, “Welcome to the Exponential Age.” Raoul will be going in-depth on his new macro framework, the Exponential Age, and he and Ed tease their interview that’s being released on Monday. They also contextualize today’s U.S. jobs report, which fell far from economists’ expectations, and Raoul explains what the Exponential Age means for employment going forward.
May 07, 2021
Lawrence Lewitinn: The Skeptical Insider
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington sits down with Lawrence Lewitinn, managing editor and host of First Mover at Coin Desk, to discuss the crypto markets, ETFs, use cases, value propositions, and long-term viability. Lewitinn views the crypto markets as incredibly thin, fueled by hope and greed, and he discusses the power of surpassing psychological barriers like round numbers. This has been prevalent in the recent increase of Ethereum's value as it crossed the $3000 threshold. With its value quadrupling, the trajectory of hope and trust in the system grows with it, leading to a positive change in the global ecosystem. However, Lewitinn also points to the issues whales such as Elon Musk can cause—if they were to throw all their holdings into the market at all once, that would pose a huge problem for blockchains such as Bitcoin because there would not be enough buyers in the space, triggering a huge wave of liquidations. Lewitinn states that while Bitcoin and crypto have huge potential, we do not know yet if there will be a better version as Bitcoin has yet to achieve one of its original goals. Lewitinn asks, "Would Bitcoin be at $50,000 if not for the pandemic? Would the space be as we know it today if Trump had won re-election?" Ultimately, the future is unknown. Filmed May 3rd, 2021. Key learnings: According to Lewitinn, when one reads the Bitcoin paper, it is elegant and solves the problem of transactions in trustless spaces. However, it requires a lot of work and energy. Further, it is more successful than it should have been when it started. In relation to the crypto industrial complex, Lewitinn believes that Bitcoin will not be the end-all, be-all solution as different specializations emerge. He views the explosion in the space as still being in the early innings. Even as there are a lot of unknowns that still exist in this market, what we do know is that Ethereum is becoming increasingly more viable in today’s society. Lewitinn believes that many of the things attributed to blockchain technology will live as an Ethereum specialty rather than Bitcoin fantasy.
Real Vision May 07, 2021
Are Interest Rate Traders Calling the Fed's Bluff?
What does the wild world of interest rate derivatives say about the Federal Reserve's credibility? Nancy Davis, chief investment officer of Quadratic Capital, takes viewers deep into the esoteric world of constant maturity swaps, forward swap curves, and options on interest rate swaps ("swaptions") to illustrate this. In this conversation with Real Vision editor Jack Farley, Davis notes several key indicators that cause interest rate traders to believe the Federal Reserve will tighten policy far sooner than it claims. Davis, the founder of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF ($IVOL), argues that her ETF, which consists largely of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as well as over-the-counter fixed income options, will perform favorably in risk-on, risk-off, as well as stagflationary environments (Davis notes that $IVOL has posted positive returns every quarter since its inception in 2019). Farley and Davis look at insightful charts such as the backwardation of the forward swap curve, the spread between swap rates of different tenors, real interest rates, as well as the correlations between equities and interest rate volatility. Filmed on May 5, 2021. Key learnings: Davis argues that the forward curve for dollar swaps is pricing in rate hikes far sooner than the Federal Reserve maintains. She makes the case that interest rate volatility is an effective way to hedge duration risk and argues that it is more preferable than taking on credit risk.
Real Vision May 06, 2021
Gold Breaks Out As Labor Market Trouble Endures
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley evaluate price action in markets as the bond market refuses to budge, some chaos in single stocks today has been hidden by relatively flat U.S. equity indexes, and gold is breaking out of its range, surging beyond $1800. Ed also takes an in-depth look at today's economic data on initial and continuing jobless claims as well as the latest news flow on companies' struggles to hire workers even as unemployment rate remains in elevated territory. Jack reports from the trenches of the over-the-counter interest rate swaps market and speculates on what it indicates about investors' trust in the Fed.

INK Videos

INK Videos May 06, 2021
Exco Technologies short positions are cruising for a bruising
Exco Technologies (XTC) is turning out to be a case study on contrarian insider signals. Today, INK Research provides an update on the stock which it has been covering since Exco pulled out of its prolonged bear market in 2019.
INK Videos May 05, 2021
Mining insiders who are crafting a distinct business model
Today, INK Research looks at a gold producer which takes a different approach. The company buys ore from local producers and processes the ore at its own mill. It is now looking to expand from South America into Africa.
INK Videos May 05, 2021
INK Ultra Money Free: Insiders are in for the big win at Warke's Latin American copper play
Richard Warke is on another winning streak, this time with Solaris Resources (SLS). While the stock is up over 500% since its debut, insiders are playing for the big copper win. If you are ready to score in this inflation-driven market, join us today via INKResearch.com or CanadianInsider.com as we let the insiders guide us to opportunity.
INK Videos May 04, 2021
Insiders are in for the big win at Warke's Latin American copper play
Richard Warke is on another winning streak with Solaris Resources (SLS). While the stock is up over 500% since its debut, insiders are playing for the big copper win.