“What are they smoking?” is what smart-beta pioneer Rob Arnott wonders about Wall Street’s inflation forecasts through the end of 2022. In conversation with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, Rob, the founder of Research Affiliates, makes the case for structurally higher inflation. He believes there’s a strong chance the Consumer Price Index could hit a fresh high before the year is out. He also thinks higher prices are going to stick, with the CPI printing materially higher through 2023 and into 2024. Rob talks about what the Federal Reserve can and can't do in such an environment, explains the real message the yield curve is sending (it’s not what you think), and identifies attractive areas of the market right now. As Rob puts it, “Successful investing isn’t hard, but it’s painful.” Recorded on August 12, 2022.

The war in Eastern Europe has devolved into one of attrition, with no end to hostilities on the horizon. Western policy makers are trying to cope with an energy crisis created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and exacerbated by decades of short-sighted long-term planning. Inflation is a problem over there, too, and growth prospects are even worse. Wouter Jongbloed, the head of political risk analysis at Exante Data, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the risks this energy crisis poses to Europe and whether a “standstill” between Moscow and Kyiv would have any bearing on markets and the broader region. This is also a crisis of the European Union’s authority: Will it be able to hold member states in line on natural gas consumption cuts, or will others go the way of Hungary and strike out on their own? Jongbloed also shares his thoughts on Taiwan and China in light of Ukraine and Russia and the impact on portfolios of rising geopolitical risk premia. Recorded on August 11, 2022.