Is the Australian housing market headed for a spectacular bust or will the bulls continue to charge? Joe Walker, host of The Jolly Swagman Podcast, sits down with Michael Schneider, special situations partner at Eschaton Funds, to discuss the litany of irrational behavior in property valuations, politics, regulatory efforts, monetary policy, the foreign investment fallacy, debt sustainability, and the prospect of a sustainable recovery in Australia’s buoyant housing market. Filmed on December 2, 2019 in Sydney, Australia.
Michael Kantrowitz, CFA, chief investment strategist at Cornerstone Macro, makes his Real Vision debut to discuss the upcoming turn in the market cycle and reviews how investors should position their portfolios. Kantrowitz analyzes the potential for a cyclical rebound in Q1 2020, points out the relationship between the stock market and PMIs, and highlights the risks to playing offense before the cycle officially troughs, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on October 7, 2019.
Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, says investors may be making too much for the recent yield curve inversion. He believes that oil rallies have played starring roles in many prior recessions. In this interview with Alex Rosenberg, Colas analyzes the recent market volatility, breaks down some important economic signals, and presents a unique hedging strategy. Filmed on August 21, 2019.
Cycling into Recession? Understanding the Growth Rate Cycle
Lakshman Achuthan, COO and co-founder of ECRI, sits down with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to examine what his firm’s indicators are signaling in both the business and growth rate cycles. Using data from ECRI, Achuthan argues that the recent jobs report is misleading and explains why that could forecast a slowdown for both employment and the U.S. economy in general. Finally, Achuthan compares the current monetary policy regime to those of the past to provide a glimpse into what 2020 could have in store for financial markets and the economy. Filmed on December 9, 2019 in New York.
Claudia Sahm, Director of Macroeconomic Research at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, gives Pedro Da Costa an insider’s view of the Federal Reserve’s plans and goals. Drawing upon her experience as a former Fed Board Economist, Sahm analyzes the drastic measures the Fed is undertaking in order to shore up the American economy as it faces this unprecedented demand shock. Sahm and Da Costa explore the Fed’s reputation as having a cozy relationship with Wall Street with Sahm framing her analysis through the lens of the 2008 bailout, in which she saw the Fed bail out Wall Street, but not Main Street. Sahm then makes a spirited case for why the Fed should learn from its previous mistakes and go bigger than it ever has before. Filmed on April 23, 2020, over Skype.
Urban Carmel makes a detailed case for remaining long U.S. equities. Carmel sees an investment landscape replete with bullish indicators — including tailwinds from a favorable employment picture, a strong housing market, and favorable signals from the U.S. Treasury curve. Filmed on May 29, 2018 in San Francisco.
Despite the strong recent employment numbers, is a labor crisis lurking? Art Bilger walks Real Vision's Alex Rosenberg through the four variables he sees converging to create a potential jobs crisis. He also explains why relying on traditional employment metrics can be misleading. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on June 20, 2019 entitled "Behemoth Builder Warns of Looming Jobs Crisis."
Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet, reflects on Jerome Powell’s recent testimony to congress and discusses what traders should expect at the next FOMC meeting. He notes the current issues with the Phillips curve, explains how other central banks could react to a dovish Fed, and reviews why the euro should weaken by the end of the year, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on July 12, 2019.
Daniel Ruiz of Blinders Off Research returns to update us on five of his stock picks from January. In this interview with Justine Underhill, Ruiz dives into what he saw a few months ago, and the new data he received in the last few weeks that has him spooked. Filmed on March 27, 2019.