#Trade / Current Account Data

Real Vision Nov 12, 2021
How Do You Protect Your Assets in a New World Order of Globalization?
Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, believes we need to prepare ourselves for a New World Order of Globalization. “We did not think the next 25 years were likely to resemble the last 25 years,” he says and adds that the movement between stocks and bonds is going to change. Pies believes also that globalization forever changed asset correlation and that Bitcoin is not a competition to the US dollar but instead it competes with gold. In the interview, Pies also talks about structural inflation and why a protectionist outlook has led to increasing prices of durable goods and major problems with global supply chains. Pies looks back at 1998 when globalization first made headwinds as China became a major manufacturer of the world, leading to structural secular deflation and removing the inflationary pressures between stocks and bonds. Pies gives his take on how investors should position their portfolios in this tumultuous macro environment. Interviewed by Maggie Lake on October 29th, 2021.
Real Vision Apr 28, 2022
The U.S. Consumer Boosts the Stock Market
U.S. equity indexes were well in the green Thursday afternoon despite the fact that gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 1.4% during the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Earnings reports continue to reflect consumer resilience in the face of historic inflation, even as the conflict in Eastern Europe metastasizes and the situation in Japan – with the central bank still trying to control the yield curve but the government pushing for a stronger yen – threatens a fiscal crisis. “The bottom line with the U.S. economy is where the breaking point is with respect to the consumer response to ever-rising prices,” notes Peter Boockvar. “We are moving closer to it, and there are signs here and there that we are hitting it. But, from what I’ve heard from company CEOs, we’re not there yet.” Boockvar, the CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the economy, inflation, and today’s price action. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OCdmQu
Real Vision Oct 13, 2021
Beyond Evergrande: Can China Shoulder Its Massive Debt Burden?
Michael Pettis, senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, has been worried for many years about China’s growing debt burden. But now that firm after firm in the country is facing a bankruptcy crisis requiring bailouts, China is truly at a crossroads: the country’s level of non-productive investment must come down—the only question is where. Will it come from a rising trade surplus or increased consumption by China’s cash-strapped citizenry? Or will the Chinese Communist Party be forced to accept lower—much lower—levels of economic growth for China? Pettis discusses alongside macro investor Michael Nicoletos, who asks about serious investment implications on commodities, foreign capital flows, the Chinese yuan, and global risk assets. Filmed on October 8, 2021.
Real Vision Jul 22, 2022
Do You Have a Recession Plan?
A “prolonged period” of zero or negative interest rates is going to “lead to distortions,” according to Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at Duke University famous for his theory that yield-curve inversions precede recessions, and that’s exactly what investors are dealing with right now. The title of Professor Harvey’s new paper, with co-author Rob Arnott, cuts right to the point: “No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession.” The Federal Reserve is playing catch-up, and it knows full well that aggressive rate-hiking will push the economy into recession. It’s a “blunt instrument.” But Professor Harvey is not one to leave not-well enough alone: “Surely there are alternatives that could be considered.” He shares his ideas on a different approach to central banking and his thoughts on managing risk in such an environment with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington. You can click here to read Professor Harvey’s and Rob Arnott’s new paper on the coming recession. Recorded on July 15th, 2022.
Real Vision Mar 30, 2022
What's Wrong With the Yen, and Why Is It Important?
The Japanese yen, long a safe haven, is not reacting to crisis this time around the way it has in the past. In fact, the yen just broke through a key long-term level of technical support and is trading at six-year lows versus the U.S. dollar. But Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to defend the Bank of Japan’s yield cap, in place to sustain accommodative monetary policy, despite broader risks to the domestic situation. Our man in Japan, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake to assess the global implications of the country’s continuing efforts to stimulate growth in the world’s third-largest economy. Then, Maggie welcomes Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the impact of tighter policy on the housing market, and the employment situation in the U.S. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/36Zk3uw
Real Vision Mar 29, 2022
Debating "Growth vs. Value" at the End of the Easy Money Era
How much did accommodative monetary policy, beginning in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09 and continuing through the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21, inflate prices for financial assets? Have growth stocks benefited from easy money? Are value stocks better fundamental businesses? Debating the merits of investing styles – “growth” versus “value” – is not so simple a matter, a conclusion proven by this compelling discussion among Ross Gerber, president and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, Peter Schiff, co-founder and CEO of EuroPacific Capital, and Real Vision’s Ash Bennington. Inflation is the controlling factor, whether, like Gerber, you believe the Federal Reserve has tools available to it to control it, or, like Schiff, you see a 1970s-style economic disaster coming down the pike, only worse. As Schiff sees it, we’ve spent the last decade or two creating inflation, and a lot of it showed up in financial asset prices. As Gerber sees it, innovative companies drive earnings growth through secular change in technology. It’s the rotation that’s defining equity markets these days. And Gerber, Schiff, and Bennington cover every angle. Recorded on March 8, 2022.
Real Vision Jul 05, 2022
Oil Slips Hard as Recession Risk Rises
Commodity prices are collapsing, the U.S. dollar is soaring, and the yield curve has inverted again: This is not an auspicious combination. Nor is the fact that a Bloomberg Economics model is now indicating a 38% chance of a recession in the next year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to talk about recent price action in the commodities market and the longer-term supply-demand story for oil and gas – highlighted by a look-in at Tony’s recent conversation with the infamous Doomberg about the complexities of hydrocarbons and their everyday use. Andreas and Tony also discuss the current condition of the global economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OGZ1ls. Watch the full interview with Doomberg and Tony Greer here: https://rvtv.io/3yh8toE.
Real Vision Oct 27, 2021
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens Another $8.2 Billion and Durable Goods Orders Decline
Orders for durable goods, big-ticket items that are meant to last over three years, have fallen 0.4% in September, the first decline since April of this year. This comes amid continuing labor shortages and increased material costs. General Motors and Boeing Co. specifically have felt the brunt of the supply chain issues with the releases of their quarterly earnings today, demonstrating less than stellar reports. The U.S. trade deficit also widened another 9.2%, equating to an additional $8.2 billion deficit. Real Vision Daily Briefing viewers are in for a treat as both Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, and Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, come together to discuss the macro variables impacting the economy. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mjYv0X
Real Vision Jun 23, 2022
It's Time to Talk About Slowing Growth
The Federal Reserve’s commitment to cooling inflation remains “unconditional,” said Jerome Powell in a second day of congressional testimony, even as evidence from overseas indicates we’re heading for a slowdown. “Growth down, inflation expectations down, cracks start to appear in commodity momentum,” tweeted Andreas Steno Larsen. S&P Global’s preliminary Eurozone composite purchasing managers index fell to a 16-month low in June on slower demand growth. “We know that the manufacturing cycle is weakening fast,” Andreas noted, “but the service sector was anticipated to have a strong summer. This is now debatable.” Andreas joins Weston Nakamura to talk about Europe, while Weston provides an update on what’s happening in Asia. More broadly, they talk about whether the narrative focus is changing from “inflation” to “recession.” We also hear from Tian Yang about long-term constraints on commodity supplies. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3bohJiR. Watch the full conversation featuring Tian Yang here: https://rvtv.io/3xHghji.
Real Vision Mar 14, 2022
Are We Doomed to Recession?
Peter Boockvar and Steven Van Metre agree growth is slowing all over the world. A major question is whether the U.S. will see a recession sooner rather than later. Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, says we should be concerned about how the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. In his view, from a strictly economic perspective, we should fear Fed Chair Jerome Powell more than Russian President Vladimir Putin. And, as we transition from hyper-accommodative interest rates, Boockvar believes a bear market is upon us. Van Metre, founder of Steven Van Metre Financial, sees a bull market for bonds emerging. They agree that gold and the U.S. dollar offer protection amid heightened geopolitical risk. In addition to describing economic scenarios based on rising inflation and higher commodity prices, Boockvar and Van Metre assess the ripple effects of war in Eastern Europe. What’s clear from their exchange is that a new economic reality is materializing. Recorded on March 9, 2022.
Real Vision Jul 15, 2022
This Is What the Early Stages of an Energy Crisis Feel Like
On the “upward pressure” side are longer-term macro variables and infrastructure neglect as well as renewed geopolitical instability, punctuated by Russia making war on Ukraine. On the “downward pressure” side are rising recession fears and potential demand destruction as well as the possibility President Joe Biden will extract some sort of promise of increased OPEC production during his visit to Saudi Arabia. While the price of crude oil is fluctuating now, it will be permanently higher in the future. That’s according to Energy Outlook Advisors Managing Partner Anas Alhajji, who also believes we’re in the early stages of an energy crisis. Anas joins Tony Greer of TG Macro for a far-ranging energy discussion, covering such ground as whether Mohammad bin Salman will be receptive to Biden’s entreaty, and why, to some, ESG is a religion. Anas and Tony also address the crises in Sri Lanka and Europe and the trade-offs the U.S. must make to contain prices at the pump. Recorded on July 12, 2022.
Real Vision Jul 18, 2022
Now Comes the Global Energy Crisis
Goldman Sachs and Bank of America posted solid headline-level earnings this morning, both benefiting from higher interest rates during the second quarter. But both also posted significantly higher provisions for bad loans, a sign of concern for the health of debtors. Meanwhile, hope for some sort of relief from Saudi Arabia appears to be the forlorn variety, as Desert Kingdom officials declined to make any promises regarding future crude oil output increases. European Union officials, in a sign of increasing desperation, did cut a natural gas deal with Azerbaijan. Luke Gromen, the founder and president of FFTT, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Laresen to talk about what happens when the Federal Reserve pushes the U.S. economy into recession to fight inflation. According to Gromen, many investors and policymakers are “seemingly oblivious to what the Federal deficit has done in the two recessions prior to COVID.” We also hear from Alexander Stahel about Vladimir Putin’s ongoing effort to inflict maximum pain on Europe via the weaponization of natural gas. Watch the entire interview featuring Alexander Stahel and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3PGdw9n.