#Interest Rates / Policy

Real Vision Sep 24, 2018
Beware the Bond Bear
Is the bond bull market over? Louise Yamada, managing director of LY Advisors, joins Real Vision for the first time to answer this very question. She uses technical analysis to forecast the future path of U.S. Treasury yields and explains what it means for investors, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on September 20, 2018.
Real Vision Dec 13, 2017
The US Yield Curve: Another Lost Decade?
The flattening US yield curve is not what matters, according to monetary economics expert Jeff Snider, but the nominal level at which it flattens. He argues that if the current moves just take us back to where we were at the depths of the 2008 crisis, the US economy could now be entering a second lost decade of growth. Filmed December 5th, 2017 in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Real Vision Nov 10, 2021
Jurrien Timmer: The Fed Has No Choice but to Say Inflation Is Transitory
The markets seem to have hit a crossroads of inflationary and deflationary signals—now more than ever, it is up to the Federal Reserve to be the guiding hand on the policy that propels the markets into a new cycle. Jurrien Timmer, director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, looks back at the era of the Great Depression and World War II, to better understand how the Fed will react to inflation fears. “I do liken the Fed to more like what it was in the 40s. Not that there was a social justice lens then, but just that they were tasked with more than just managing policy to achieve price stability,” explains Timmer. According to the analyst, the Fed and the Treasury are trying to “right the ship” not only economically but also socially. However, some of the Fed measures are creating a tax on bondholders and hurting investors. Timmer and Darius Dale, CEO and founder of 42 Macro, examine the key macro trends and discuss why demographics and the labor market are worrying investors of inflationary tailwinds. The pair break down whether an equities bull market is likely to last and why the “40” in the 60/40 portfolio breakdown likely needs to be amended. Recorded on November 4, 2021.
Real Vision Nov 12, 2021
How Do You Protect Your Assets in a New World Order of Globalization?
Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, believes we need to prepare ourselves for a New World Order of Globalization. “We did not think the next 25 years were likely to resemble the last 25 years,” he says and adds that the movement between stocks and bonds is going to change. Pies believes also that globalization forever changed asset correlation and that Bitcoin is not a competition to the US dollar but instead it competes with gold. In the interview, Pies also talks about structural inflation and why a protectionist outlook has led to increasing prices of durable goods and major problems with global supply chains. Pies looks back at 1998 when globalization first made headwinds as China became a major manufacturer of the world, leading to structural secular deflation and removing the inflationary pressures between stocks and bonds. Pies gives his take on how investors should position their portfolios in this tumultuous macro environment. Interviewed by Maggie Lake on October 29th, 2021.
INK Videos Oct 24, 2021
Canadian bank bullishness
Today, Ted Dixon visits our top-ranked Canadian bank stock and our top-ranked big bank in Canada. Given where both stocks land in our rankings, the bulls may have reason to be optimistic.
Real Vision Dec 10, 2018
Don't Blame the FED
This week AK takes a look at everyone’s favorite scapegoat- The FED.
Real Vision Aug 19, 2019
How Negative Interest Rates Actually Work
With central banks all over the world turning to unconventional monetary policy, AK takes a look at interest rates. This week, he break down what negative interest rates are, what they might mean for the economy, and the chances that negative rates make their way to the United States.
Real Vision Dec 14, 2021
Fed Meeting Begins: What's Next for Stocks, Bitcoin, & Your Portfolio?
The Fed meeting begins today, and Thomas Thornton joins the Daily Briefing to discuss what that means for stocks and Bitcoin. One thing’s for sure: we can probably expect a hike in interest rates. Gold already retreated 1% today in anticipation. Meanwhile, airlines are already looking ahead to next year and expecting a bounce back in travel. American Airlines plans to hire 18,000 people to meet the expected demand. Thornton will also talk about Tesla and Elon Musk’s selling spree to reach his goal of selling 10% by the end of the year, as well as the downside of $ARKK and whether buying the dip on $SPY is foolish. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3pTvhqw
Real Vision Oct 20, 2021
The Real Lessons from the 1970s We Should be Applying Today
“The story we tell ourselves about the 1970s has almost no resemblance to reality.” That’s what Mike Green and his guest Skanda Amarnath discuss in this fascinating and enlightening interview. Amarnath is a former hedge fund researcher and Fed employee who is now Executive Director of Employ America — he says the belief that the Fed has ultimate control over the economy just by changing interest rates is naive. Mike and Skanda dive deep into the history of US economic policy and look at the lessons we can learn that will have you re-thinking both the 1970s inflation story and the mainstream ideas behind the Fed's monetary policy. Filmed on October 15, 2021.
Real Vision Mar 13, 2019
The Worst Idea in the History of Economics
Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, rejects the idea of negative interest rates — and goes so far as to call them one of the worst ideas in the history of economics. Heated and irritated by current policy-makers, Boockvar highlights how the U.S. could follow the same destructive path as Europe and Japan, in this interview with Brian Price. Filmed on March 8, 2019.
Real Vision Oct 29, 2021
Walk Down Memory Lane: Lessons from the Fed's Governance
History tends to repeat itself — what can we learn from the Fed’s actions over time? With persistent supply-side shock inflation running through the economy today, Rob Dugger, managing partner at Hanover Provident LLC, outlines lessons learned from the Fed as it dealt with an ever-changing political agenda during the 1970’s inflation craze. He shares his courtside perspective with Harry Melandri of MI2 Partners, and the pair dives into some causes for slowing GDP growth in the U.S. and why some sectors receive more political backing than others. Dugger also gives his take on why capital flows still aren’t sufficiently halting the climate change crisis. Recorded on October 26, 2021.
Real Vision Nov 17, 2021
A Perfect Storm: Entering the Inflation Vortex
From Fed tapering to financial capital allocation, James Davolos, portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics, and Jared Dillian, Daily Dirtnap editor, lay out the near and long-term trajectory of the inflation-spooked economy. The perfect storm of fiscal and monetary stimulus created an inflationary regime this past year, leaving investors wondering what the future of the bond and equity markets will look like. “Food is what really hits peoples’ piggy banks, and that may end up having some kind of social issue,” says Davolos. As the market anticipates rate hikes in 2022 and a plethora of other economic game-changers, Davolos shares his portfolio allocation and holdings, and why the huge wave of demand for energy sets the industry up for high growth. He also examines prophecies of FinTech tailwinds adding to the current inflationary and economic tailwinds. Recorded on November 15, 2021.