Real Vision Nov 17, 2021
What Went Wrong: The Inflation Story
After weeks of backlog in the L.A. ports, officials say they’ve finally made some progress and cleared about 29% of the cargo. Last month’s retail sales report resulted in a gleeful leap in stocks and the U.S. dollar. As inflation continues to rage through the economy with the highest CPI in 30 years, President Obama’s former economic adviser, Steven Rattner, blasted the Biden administration for getting it all wrong despite warnings. Bitcoin, which hit an all-time high earlier this month, continues to fall. Darius Dale of 42 Macro joins to give his insight on the resiliency of the U.S. dollar, inflation, and Bitcoin. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3kMfoAi
Real Vision Nov 10, 2021
Hottest CPI in 30 Years And Rivian Goes Public
There’s no question about it: inflation is not transitory. The latest Consumer Price Index revealed prices of everything except food and energy went up 4.6%, the quickest spike since August 1991. The CPI also showed a 6.2% surge from October last year. U.S. consumers are feeling the hike in energy prices—oil is at nearly $82 a barrel, and electricity bills are at the highest they’ve been since 2009. Meanwhile, more automobile companies are joining the race to give Elon Musk a run for his money. The latest to enter the fray of Tesla rivals is the electric-vehicle startup Rivian, which debuted in trading today with the highest Initial Price Offer since 2014, starting at $78. The company’s valuation has already beaten Ford and General Motors. Jared Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Ash Bennington to discuss all of this and more. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3n2nIxm
Real Vision Oct 13, 2021
CPI Runs Hot--Are We Headed For Stagflation?
September’s CPI report revealed that, as energy and food prices climbed, consumer prices rose 0.4%, pushing the year-over-year inflation to an uncomfortably hot 5.4%. Yield curves flattened after the CPI released with shorter-dated yields rising and longer-dated yields falling. Tech stocks are advancing while banks and energy stocks are faltering, including JP Morgan ($JPM) despite their Q3 earnings topping analyst estimates. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins to discuss the rapidly rising probability of realizing stagflation in Q4. Interviewed by Jack Farley. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ADpJna
Real Vision Nov 16, 2021
'Tis the Season to Shop & Be Merry Despite Inflation
Tony Greer returns to the Daily Briefing to discuss a spike in retail sales in October, even in the face of rising inflation. Not only are sales up 1.7% from the previous month, but also up 16.3% year-over-year. This is as a result of the combination of U.S. households having extra cash from the stimulus money and a frenzy to get holiday shopping started early this year to avoid supply chain issues choking the availability of gifts as industrial production continues to be riddled with volatility. Germany suspended certifying the controversial Russian pipeline, causing natural gas prices to shoot up from concerns of low fuel this winter in Europe. In the crypto world, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell sharply retreating from near-record highs. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3kFYu6c
Real Vision Nov 04, 2021
Bank Of England Defies the Market and Leaves Heads Turning
The Fed announced their long-awaited taper to begin later this month with room for adjustment based on changes in the economic outlook. While the Fed focuses on keeping the inflation rate at 2%, the Bank of England’s market-defying announcement to hold rates steady at the 0.1% benchmark has investors scratching their heads over the Fed's position in this ultra-inflationary environment. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins to discuss the implications of these policy decisions. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3EOlwQi
Real Vision Nov 22, 2021
A Brave New World: Biden Reappoints Powell Amid a Coordinated Strategic Oil Reserves Release
President Biden nominates Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for a second term. The question on everyone’s mind is, what does it mean for the economy? Could Biden’s pick signal that the administration is opting for policy continuity? Powell faces a completely different economy from when he was sworn in, and he will have to pivot from previous policies as inflation is at 6.2%, its highest in 31 years. The U.S is also hurting from supply and labor imbalances. In the economy, oil prices rose on news that OPEC+ could lower oil production if large consuming countries release crude from their reserves. President Biden is expected to release oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Gary Brode, founder of Deep Knowledge Investing, sits down with Maggie Lake to discuss how the economy will fare once more under Powell, and what higher oil prices mean for investors and consumers. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3oSPjk9
Real Vision Nov 23, 2021
Let's Talk Inflation: Investment Strategies, Fiscal Policies & Gaslighting
When it comes to inflation, the pandemic has bred several narratives around the topic. Guest host and CEO of Alpha Architect Wes Gray sits down with Discipline Fund CIO Cullen Roche to discuss the complex causes of inflation, the impact of stimulus checks on the economy, and real estate as an inflation-hedge option. Roche explains that in a modern monetary system, “the money supply has a very elastic quality to it, where the money supply can grow and shrink as we need it to... so inflation, in the long-term is sort of the tradeoff for having a flexible money supply.” He also believes that there seems to be a certain degree of gaslighting from a lot of people who are trying to argue that fiscal policy did not cause inflation. Find out more on this episode of The Interview. Recorded on November 15, 2021.
Real Vision Nov 12, 2021
How Do You Protect Your Assets in a New World Order of Globalization?
Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, believes we need to prepare ourselves for a New World Order of Globalization. “We did not think the next 25 years were likely to resemble the last 25 years,” he says and adds that the movement between stocks and bonds is going to change. Pies believes also that globalization forever changed asset correlation and that Bitcoin is not a competition to the US dollar but instead it competes with gold. In the interview, Pies also talks about structural inflation and why a protectionist outlook has led to increasing prices of durable goods and major problems with global supply chains. Pies looks back at 1998 when globalization first made headwinds as China became a major manufacturer of the world, leading to structural secular deflation and removing the inflationary pressures between stocks and bonds. Pies gives his take on how investors should position their portfolios in this tumultuous macro environment. Interviewed by Maggie Lake on October 29th, 2021.
Real Vision Dec 01, 2021
Japan, Money Velocity, and the Case for Transitory Inflation
In a fascinating interview with Maggie Lake, Carraighill analyst David Higgins pushes back on persistent inflation believers and challenges conventional economic wisdom. Higgins cites historical examples like a credit scheme introduced by Japan after their early ‘90s economic crash and presents research that shows nations with high levels of national debt see a diminished positive correlation between money supply growth and inflation, to argue that inflation is not here to stay. “This is a very different environment to the 1970s,” says Higgins, who expects to see disinflation within the next year or so. Recorded on November 29, 2021.
Real Vision Oct 15, 2021
The Growth Cycle Isn't Over Yet
While many investors are bracing for a slowdown in growth that will drag down the reflation trade, Teddy Vallee, CIO and founder of Pervalle Global, couldn't disagree more. Swimming against the tide, he argues that the growth cycle is far from over, and he tells Marco Link's Christian Alexander how his fund’s unique macro proprietary indicators and models are showing a remarkably strong signal that bond yields will mount higher and that 2021 could end in tears for the deflationists. With his keen eye for market mispricing, Vallee explores key indicators that show why the market isn’t appreciating strong U.S. economic growth and outlines his alternative data findings on inflation and global consumer demand. They also discuss why Bitcoin is an inflation hedge and store of value. Filmed on September 29, 2021.
Real Vision Nov 17, 2021
A Perfect Storm: Entering the Inflation Vortex
From Fed tapering to financial capital allocation, James Davolos, portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics, and Jared Dillian, Daily Dirtnap editor, lay out the near and long-term trajectory of the inflation-spooked economy. The perfect storm of fiscal and monetary stimulus created an inflationary regime this past year, leaving investors wondering what the future of the bond and equity markets will look like. “Food is what really hits peoples’ piggy banks, and that may end up having some kind of social issue,” says Davolos. As the market anticipates rate hikes in 2022 and a plethora of other economic game-changers, Davolos shares his portfolio allocation and holdings, and why the huge wave of demand for energy sets the industry up for high growth. He also examines prophecies of FinTech tailwinds adding to the current inflationary and economic tailwinds. Recorded on November 15, 2021.
Real Vision Oct 12, 2021
IMF Cuts Growth Forecast as Record Number of U.S. Workers Quit Their Jobs
Energy prices continue to jump higher, and global supply shortages continue to worsen just as the IMF now cuts their growth forecast to 5.9%, which is 0.1% lower than their July forecast and is rooted in growing inflationary concerns and the potential of tightening monetary policy. Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the Daily Briefing, diving into the energy sector and providing his outlook on oil and natural gas as well as increasing pressures on the economy from inflation to a fledgling recovery in labor markets. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3lzM54U