#Industrial Output Data

Real Vision Mar 03, 2022
Will Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Raise Inflationary Pressures?
U.S. equity markets were mixed with just over two hours remaining in the trading day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index holding small gains and the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 Index down nearly 1%. Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note and the 30-year bond backed up again, as investors continue to seek safety amid the unfolding crisis in Eastern Europe. Crude oil prices slipped some, with West Texas Intermediate down 0.55% to $109.99 and Brent off 0.57% to $112.29. But grains continue to reflect rising pressures on current and future supply, with wheat up more than 7% and corn up nearly 5%. And it doesn’t appear as though Russian President Vladimir Putin is any closer to succumbing to the global sanctions regime that’s targeted the country’s oligarchs and hamstrung the lives of ordinary Russians. Indeed, missile attacks against Ukraine’s major cities are intensifying. Meanwhile, the fed funds futures market is still pricing in five interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, as potential inflationary pressures increase. Michael Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Investments, and Frances Coppola, who writes and speaks on banking, finance, and economics, join Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to assess the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its broader global impact.
Real Vision May 05, 2022
Stocks Sell Off in Sharp Reversal of Post-FOMC Rally
U.S. equity indexes rallied hard during Jerome Powell’s post-Federal Open Market Committee meeting press conference yesterday, posting the biggest rally in two years because the Federal Reserve Chair said the central bank was not “actively considering” a 75-basis-point rate hike. Today, 95% of the S&P 500 is trading lower, The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off more than 700 points, and the Nasdaq Composite is down more than 5%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged as high as 3.106% before settling at 3.09%, its highest level since 2018, as investors seem to be more and more accepting of the fact that the Fed will continue to aggressively fight inflation, at the risk of equity valuations and economic growth. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about today’s price action and central bank policy as well as natural gas and other critical commodities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3vJLkLB
Real Vision Apr 22, 2022
What Do New Lockdowns in China Mean for the Global Economy?
Enforcement of a “Zero Covid” policy means approximately 40% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) is under some form of lockdown right now – 373 million people in Shanghai, home of the world’s largest port, Shenzhen, and other Chinese cities are affected. Major disruptions to factories and global supply chains are sure to result. But the National Bureau of Statistics reported China’s first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 4.8%, beating the consensus forecast and up from 4% in the fourth quarter. Because of China’s importance to the global economy, we’ve given special access for Essential subscribers to this compelling conversation between Real Vision’s Maggie Lake and China Beige Book CEO Leland Miller. Miller notes that China’s 2020 recovery was not as steep as outsiders estimated. Nor was its 2021 retreat as sharp as those same outsiders suggested. He offers a data-based analysis of China’s economy, including his assessment of Chinese officials’ expectations, the role of the Chinese consumer, and the continuing impact of the “Zero COVID” policy.
Real Vision May 17, 2022
Will It Be Good News When Inflation Peaks?
Neither pandemic nor war can keep down the American consumer, even as persistent inflation and supply-chain breakdowns continue to vex economists, policymakers, and financial media talking-heads. U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in April, and the figure for March was revised upward to 1.4% from 0.5%, data that reflect resilient demand. At the same time, industrial production was up a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in April, beating a consensus forecast of 0.5% and accelerating from 0.9% in March. U.S. equity indexes rallied on the solid economic data. But Vincent Deluard, Global Macro Strategist at StoneX, has concerns. Though he thinks we’ve reached peak inflation, he warns we could be stuck at a higher plateau for longer. “The CPI is caught in a tug-of-war between the cyclical basket, which is driven by energy, re-opening sectors, and supply chains, and the structural basket, which is driven by shelter, services, and wages. Due to base effects, cyclical dis-inflation should outweigh structural reflation until the end of the year.” Deluard joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the “transitory narrative” and how investors can and should position for the persistence of secular inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Mrt13y.
Real Vision Jun 23, 2022
It's Time to Talk About Slowing Growth
The Federal Reserve’s commitment to cooling inflation remains “unconditional,” said Jerome Powell in a second day of congressional testimony, even as evidence from overseas indicates we’re heading for a slowdown. “Growth down, inflation expectations down, cracks start to appear in commodity momentum,” tweeted Andreas Steno Larsen. S&P Global’s preliminary Eurozone composite purchasing managers index fell to a 16-month low in June on slower demand growth. “We know that the manufacturing cycle is weakening fast,” Andreas noted, “but the service sector was anticipated to have a strong summer. This is now debatable.” Andreas joins Weston Nakamura to talk about Europe, while Weston provides an update on what’s happening in Asia. More broadly, they talk about whether the narrative focus is changing from “inflation” to “recession.” We also hear from Tian Yang about long-term constraints on commodity supplies. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3bohJiR. Watch the full conversation featuring Tian Yang here: https://rvtv.io/3xHghji.
Real Vision May 17, 2022
Will It Be Good News When Inflation Peaks?
Neither pandemic nor war can keep down the American consumer, even as persistent inflation and supply-chain breakdowns continue to vex economists, policymakers, and financial media talking-heads. U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in April, and the figure for March was revised upward to 1.4% from 0.5%, data that reflect resilient demand. At the same time, industrial production was up a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in April, beating a consensus forecast of 0.5% and accelerating from 0.9% in March. U.S. equity indexes rallied on the solid economic data. But Vincent Deluard, Global Macro Strategist at StoneX, has concerns. Though he thinks we’ve reached peak inflation, he warns we could be stuck at a higher plateau for longer. “The CPI is caught in a tug-of-war between the cyclical basket, which is driven by energy, re-opening sectors, and supply chains, and the structural basket, which is driven by shelter, services, and wages. Due to base effects, cyclical dis-inflation should outweigh structural reflation until the end of the year.” Deluard joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the “transitory narrative” and how investors can and should position for the persistence of secular inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Mrt13y.