#Employment / Unemployment Data / Policy

Real Vision Dec 18, 2019
Australian Housing: Flying Too Close to the Sun?
Is the Australian housing market headed for a spectacular bust or will the bulls continue to charge? Joe Walker, host of The Jolly Swagman Podcast, sits down with Michael Schneider, special situations partner at Eschaton Funds, to discuss the litany of irrational behavior in property valuations, politics, regulatory efforts, monetary policy, the foreign investment fallacy, debt sustainability, and the prospect of a sustainable recovery in Australia’s buoyant housing market. Filmed on December 2, 2019 in Sydney, Australia.
Real Vision Oct 08, 2019
Market Cycles: Timing Matters
Michael Kantrowitz, CFA, chief investment strategist at Cornerstone Macro, makes his Real Vision debut to discuss the upcoming turn in the market cycle and reviews how investors should position their portfolios. Kantrowitz analyzes the potential for a cyclical rebound in Q1 2020, points out the relationship between the stock market and PMIs, and highlights the risks to playing offense before the cycle officially troughs, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on October 7, 2019.
Real Vision Aug 22, 2019
Oil vs. the Yield Curve
Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, says investors may be making too much for the recent yield curve inversion. He believes that oil rallies have played starring roles in many prior recessions. In this interview with Alex Rosenberg, Colas analyzes the recent market volatility, breaks down some important economic signals, and presents a unique hedging strategy. Filmed on August 21, 2019.
Real Vision Dec 12, 2019
Cycling into Recession? Understanding the Growth Rate Cycle
Lakshman Achuthan, COO and co-founder of ECRI, sits down with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to examine what his firm’s indicators are signaling in both the business and growth rate cycles. Using data from ECRI, Achuthan argues that the recent jobs report is misleading and explains why that could forecast a slowdown for both employment and the U.S. economy in general. Finally, Achuthan compares the current monetary policy regime to those of the past to provide a glimpse into what 2020 could have in store for financial markets and the economy. Filmed on December 9, 2019 in New York.
Real Vision Apr 29, 2020
"The Nuclear Option"
Claudia Sahm, Director of Macroeconomic Research at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, gives Pedro Da Costa an insider’s view of the Federal Reserve’s plans and goals. Drawing upon her experience as a former Fed Board Economist, Sahm analyzes the drastic measures the Fed is undertaking in order to shore up the American economy as it faces this unprecedented demand shock. Sahm and Da Costa explore the Fed’s reputation as having a cozy relationship with Wall Street with Sahm framing her analysis through the lens of the 2008 bailout, in which she saw the Fed bail out Wall Street, but not Main Street. Sahm then makes a spirited case for why the Fed should learn from its previous mistakes and go bigger than it ever has before. Filmed on April 23, 2020, over Skype.
Real Vision Jun 11, 2018
Tracing the Bullish Narrative
Urban Carmel makes a detailed case for remaining long U.S. equities. Carmel sees an investment landscape replete with bullish indicators — including tailwinds from a favorable employment picture, a strong housing market, and favorable signals from the U.S. Treasury curve. Filmed on May 29, 2018 in San Francisco.
Real Vision May 20, 2021
The Looming Unemployment Crisis in the Exponential Age
Technological progress has the power to unlock human potential by delivering remarkable efficiency; however, by so doing, it can also inflict a severe burden on workers whose jobs are the subject of this disruption. This risk is one which Art Bilger, venture capitalist and founder of WorkingNation, has set out to document and alleviate. In this conversation with Coast Capital founder and chief investment officer James Rasteh, Bilger argues that technological trends such as self-driving cars and 3D printing will displace workers and give rise to an unemployment crisis. Bilger and Rasteh discuss the corrosive knock-on effects for society and the potential steps necessary to prepare for this radical transition. Filmed on May 14, 2021. Key learnings: Bilger envisions a world in which cashiers are replaced by iPads and truck drivers are supplanted by self-driving eighteen wheelers, and he argues that the modern workforce needs to prepare for the jobs of the future, such as in green energy or healthcare.
Real Vision Nov 10, 2021
Jurrien Timmer: The Fed Has No Choice but to Say Inflation Is Transitory
The markets seem to have hit a crossroads of inflationary and deflationary signals—now more than ever, it is up to the Federal Reserve to be the guiding hand on the policy that propels the markets into a new cycle. Jurrien Timmer, director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, looks back at the era of the Great Depression and World War II, to better understand how the Fed will react to inflation fears. “I do liken the Fed to more like what it was in the 40s. Not that there was a social justice lens then, but just that they were tasked with more than just managing policy to achieve price stability,” explains Timmer. According to the analyst, the Fed and the Treasury are trying to “right the ship” not only economically but also socially. However, some of the Fed measures are creating a tax on bondholders and hurting investors. Timmer and Darius Dale, CEO and founder of 42 Macro, examine the key macro trends and discuss why demographics and the labor market are worrying investors of inflationary tailwinds. The pair break down whether an equities bull market is likely to last and why the “40” in the 60/40 portfolio breakdown likely needs to be amended. Recorded on November 4, 2021.
Real Vision Jul 24, 2019
Is a Jobs Crisis Coming?
Despite the strong recent employment numbers, is a labor crisis lurking? Art Bilger walks Real Vision's Alex Rosenberg through the four variables he sees converging to create a potential jobs crisis. He also explains why relying on traditional employment metrics can be misleading. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on June 20, 2019 entitled "Behemoth Builder Warns of Looming Jobs Crisis."
Real Vision Jul 15, 2019
Lower Rates, Higher Dollar?
Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet, reflects on Jerome Powell’s recent testimony to congress and discusses what traders should expect at the next FOMC meeting. He notes the current issues with the Phillips curve, explains how other central banks could react to a dovish Fed, and reviews why the euro should weaken by the end of the year, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on July 12, 2019.
Real Vision Mar 28, 2019
Auto Industry Update
Daniel Ruiz of Blinders Off Research returns to update us on five of his stock picks from January. In this interview with Justine Underhill, Ruiz dives into what he saw a few months ago, and the new data he received in the last few weeks that has him spooked. Filmed on March 27, 2019.
Real Vision Oct 12, 2020
Economic Dignity and the Policy Endgame
How can people attain economic dignity at a time when the coronavirus pandemic has torn a hole in our economic fabric? This is the question that Market News International correspondent Pedro da Costa explores with Gene Sperling, national economic advisor and author of "Economic Dignity." Sperling argues that COVID-19 has only exacerbated inequalities that were already nearing their breaking point, incorporating the U.S. budget deficit and Federal Reserve's actions into his analysis. Sperling and da Costa then look forward weigh to the 2020 presidential election and the possibility of additional fiscal stimulus, weighing the various probabilities as they attempt to build their framework for the near-term. Filmed on October 2, 2020.