Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision favorite Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors. Mike Green gives a strategic update on the markets, and, through the lens of his renowned critique of passive investing, analyzes flow data on ETFs and mutual funds to conclude that the markets could be due for some turmoil in the coming months. Green and Bennington also discuss today’s interview with Green and Rob Arnott, one of the world's leading quantitative investors. Green also shares his views on "volmaggedon" and the similarities between short-vol and bonds. In the intro, Jack reviews recent FAANG earnings and gives a preview of Jason Buck's three-part "Ahead of the Curve," a deep-dive into volatility featuring interviews with Chris Cole, Jerry Haworth, and Bastian Bolesta.
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to reckon with the idea of whether a COVID-19 vaccine will be the "medical bailout" everyone is staking their hopes on. Ash and Ed give an overview of where many major nations are currently in their battle against the pandemic and consider if this new normal is truly sustainable in the long-term. They also discuss the continued move toward a virtual world, how this is an omen of absolute collapse in certain industries, and how the pandemic has become a politically charged subject in the midst of a US election cycle. In the intro, Nick Correa shares some of the data from the Household Pulse Survey, revealing the ways fiscal stimulus has made up a portion of aggregate spending for American consumers.
Senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by Mike "Mish" Shedlock of TheStreet.com to discuss gold and the looming fiscal cliff. Shedlock analyzes the purported "short squeeze" on gold, shining a light on the various players in the future as well as physical markets for gold during its ascendant rally. Bennington and Shedlock then analyze the dysfunction in Washington and gyrating asset markets through the lens of expiring unemployment benefits.
Just how severe are the risks in today's market – and what can investors do to protect themselves against them? Sven Henrich, founder of Northam trader, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to explore these questions. Raoul and Sven analyze the current market landscape, looking at the equity market’s multiple expansion, the flashing warning signals in the bond market, and the flood of central bank liquidity keeping everything afloat. They examine the risks and rewards of shorting equities, and explore whether it is wise to take an observationally-bearish view and implement it into a tactically-bearish view. Sven and Raoul also look at a wide variety of charts in order to incorporate technical indicators within their macro framework. Filmed on July 14, 2020.
The neoliberal model of free trade, open borders, and liberalized capital flows is under assault. Traditional economic models with rational agents and efficient markets don't accord with reality, and people are starting to notice. Even recent advances in behavioral economics have failed to capture this disconnect. Mark Blyth, William R. Rhodes Professor of International Economics at Brown University, and Eric Lonergan, macro hedge fund manager at M&G Investments, explore and seek to resolve these conflicts in their new book, "Angrynomics." Blyth and Lonergan examine how the outsourcing of economic management to grey-suited bureaucrats is fomenting a populist backlash that is redrawing political battle lines and molding the destiny of different asset classes in ways few fully grasp. They analyze the recent largesse of central banks as a sort of asymmetric put-option which rewards those who hold assets and punishes those who don't. Blyth and Lonergan also explore potential solutions, which include dual interest rates, citizens' wealth fund, and - yes - even helicopter money. Filmed on July 8, 2020.
The Austrian Perspective on Recoveries, Bubbles, and Monetary Policy
For decades, the schools of economic thought that have informed monetary and fiscal policy decisions have been decidedly not Austrian; but, outside of the echo chambers of Washington D.C., Austrian School economics is in a boom as academics and civilians alike see the predictions and promises of the mainstream fall short. Guided by his Austrian views, Robert P. Murphy, senior fellow at the Mises Institute, has been astute with many of his predictions of the side effects of mainstream economic policies. Together with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, Murphy reintroduces the core of Austrian economics and compares and contrasts with other major economic schools of thought in relation to how each try to make sense of past and recent economic developments and the responses to them. He also attempts to answer the question of whether the Fed’s monetary bazooka has ushered in a swift end to the recent business cycle and set us on course for another underwhelming economic expansion. Filmed on July 14, 2020.
A World on The Brink, begins with Episode One, where host Dee Smith examines the complex world we live in and looks at how we have got to where we are today. In trying to gain an understanding, we delve back through history to the 300-year-old Westphalian Order and then move forward to the liberal international system and the rules based order. Together we explore how the many complex systems, agreements and structures from across centuries govern how our modern-day world functions and how in 2017 these systems are coming under increasing pressure. https://www.realvision.com/world-brink-disclaimer/
In Episode Two of 'A World on the Brink' – Globalization and its Discontents, Dee Smith examines globalization and its impact, bringing nearly a billion people out of poverty, but not without significant drawbacks. In this episode, we attempt to place globalization in context: as both progenitor and part of larger global changes that include automation, the rise of identity politics, economic contagion, and phenomena like Brexit. Contributors discuss the pros and cons of globalization in the context of the politics of nostalgia, populist movements, and attempts to recreate previous political and social structures. We also examine the largely unanswered questions that face us all, as opposing economic and social trends continue to gather strength. https://www.realvision.com/world-brink-disclaimer/
A region diverse in culture and history, yet the source of many of today's most violent conflicts. Episode 3 of A World On The Brink teases out threads from the tapestry of history to explain crucial yet less known factors—often missing from the popular narrative—which continue to drive conflict and change in the Middle East. These include the post WW1 redrawing of borders, the rise of Saudi oil wealth, the influence of Wahhabism, the formation of Al Qaeda, the resource curse and the rise of ISIS. https://www.realvision.com/world-brink-disclaimer/
In Episode Four of A World on the Brink, Dee Smith examines the changing nature of conflict. Breaking down some of the greatest threats to our world and their impact on nations, geopolitics, and individuals. From nuclear, cyber, and bio war to technology as a disruptive force and the threats from the connectivity revolution to dangers arising from natural disasters and to what might perhaps be the greatest threat of them all, human nature. https://www.realvision.com/world-brink-disclaimer/
What will the interactions among all the forces of social, political, and economic change mean for society going forward? Dee Smith puts the pieces together in the fifth and final episode of A World on the Brink, looking at what might be the ultimate causes of these changes and also exploring the crucial question of whether, and to what extent, the current systems and structures of the world will hold. Ultimately, the role of human nature and a look at history lend cause for both concern and for hope. https://www.realvision.com/world-brink-disclaimer/
Fred Hickey, editor of The High Tech Strategist, provides his unique take on the state of the technology sector, in this conversation with Tommy Thornton. Cutting through the valuations quandary, Fred questions the price people are paying for Apple, spells out the overseas regulatory threats for Facebook and Google, and offers a reminder that pioneers are the ones that can end up with arrows in their backs. Filmed December 21st, 2017 in New Hampshire.