Real Vision Senior Editor Ash Bennington hosts Managing Editor Ed Harrison to make sense of a roaring day on Wall Street. They analyze the extreme bullishness in today's session through the lens of Fed Chair Powell's remarks, and discuss yield divergences in European sovereigns, as well as the valuation of European banks. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at recent 13F filings.
Real Vision's managing editors Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst sit down to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Nick Correa talks about the new waves of infections in South Korea and the country's unique challenges in containing and stopping the spread.
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. They talk through why US equities are still not suffering even though the real economic data demonstrates an increasingly bleaker picture. In light of that, Harrison and Hirst break down what lessons to draw from this investing environment. In the intro, Real Vision’s Jack Farley looks at the continued strain on employment in the airline and tech industries.
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the retracement of the S&P 500 amid a distressing Bank of America study that found that only 10 percent of fund managers are anticipating the V-shaped recovery that has been promised. Ed and Ash also explore the troubling stories coming out of Latin America, the trouble in the European banking sector, and the potential of a redenomination of the Euro into legacy currencies. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a closer look at PNC Financial's sale of its stake in Blackrock.
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets and macro in the era of coronavirus. Bennington and Harrison talk through the risks and potential upside to growth as European institutions debate bailouts in Europe, the possible ripple effect of President Trump’s call to revoke Hong Kong’s special trade status, and the plausibility of the renminbi becoming a global reserve currency. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses some of the latest economic data coming out of Canada.
Senior editor Ash Bennington sits down with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to explore the latest developments in markets and macro. They dive into why debt mutualization won’t be enough to save Europe, what the elimination of GDP targeting means for China, and how Hong Kong's limited autonomy is slipping from its grasp with China's latest security law announcement. The pair also discuss the challenges of a solvency crisis, the rising threat of deflation, and the plummeting two year U.S. Treasury yield.
Warren Pies, chief energy strategist for Ned Davis Research, has been spot on with his predictions for crude oil and energy equities in 2020, but a lot has changed since he last appeared in mid-April. In this interview, Pies returns to update viewers on his basket of indicators to explain his shifting outlook for crude prices. Pies touches on the rapid flattening of an unprecedented super-contango, the current fundamentals of supply and demand dynamics through the lens of U.S. inventories, and the macro and political factors affecting oil-dependent economies like Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries. In addition, he breaks down the rally in energy equities, highlighting the stark contrast between the price action and fundamentals in a sector that is more of a macro trade than ever. Filmed on June 1, 2020.
Teddy Vallee, founder and chief investment officer of Pervalle Global, returns to Real Vision to discuss why he believes we are at the precipice of a new dawn for macro investing. He explains the different models he uses to estimate the profound economic deterioration occurring in the U.S., and he explains how this data is shaping his macro outlook. Vallee reveals his long-term view for U.S. equities and explains why he thinks bitcoin is the macro asset class that offers the most opportunity. He also makes the case for gold mining stocks, as well as certain emerging markets equities. Filmed on May 29, 2020.
Senior Editor Ash Bennington joins Managing Editor Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. Bennington and Hirst discuss what “returning to normal” means for markets—whether it’s breaking into a new regime or a return to the status quo. They also dive into “the dollar smile,” where bond yields are headed, and commercial real estate in the UK. In the intro segment, Real Vision’s Nick Correa talks about the 1968 influenza pandemic and how the world’s response to pandemics in the past was vastly different from the response today.
Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the roiling civil unrest in the U.S. could affect businesses and financial markets. They look at the correlation of the Citi Surprise Index and bond yields, and Ed introduces three historical parallels to compare to the current moment. In the intro, Jack Farley gives an overview of global PMI data and Goldman Sachs’ revised forecast for the S&P 500.
Managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington break down the brewing tensions between China and the United States. They comprehend the consequences of a potential "decoupling" between the two superpowers and analyze the possibility of a new Cold War. Ed and Ash also analyze the continued rise of U.S. equities and look forward to see whether the ongoing crisis will be the shortest recession in history or if there is some "post-snapback malaise" in store. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at what could be the first convertible bond default in the history of Chinese markets.
Raoul Pal returns in his role as founder of Global Macro Investor to update Real Vision members on his ever-evolving macro framework. He lays out his case that COVID-19 may be the catalyst for a multiphase unfolding of the entire global economic system and argues that we are still in the first phase of panic and liquidity. The second and third phases of correction and insolvency are possibly still to come and would take years to complete. Although Raoul describes a truly catastrophic potential scenario, he closes on the hopeful note that this unfolding would be a much-needed reset, and that there is plenty of room to hide in asset classes like U.S. treasuries, dollars, gold, and bitcoin.