Looking Forward at Interest Rates, the U.S. Dollar, Volatility, and the B117 Variant
Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a nuanced discussion of how the economic recovery will evolve over the next few months. Raoul and Ed interpret today’s dismal retail sales figures, which indicate a contraction of total retail activity for the third straight month. With the new B117 COVID-19 variant on the move, Raoul expects economic activity to continue to decline, ebbing away at the dominant reflationary trades that are short U.S. Treasurys as well as the U.S. dollar. Ed asks Raoul his thoughts on the recent storming of the U.S. Capitol, the approaching inauguration of President Elect Joe Biden, and Biden’s new $1.9 Trillion stimulus plan. Lastly, Raoul and Ed wax philosophical about “the death of macro”: what would happen if the volatility of interest rates and currencies – the bread and butter of macro investing – were extremely low over the next decade? In the intro, editor Jack Farley provides context on bank earnings and the recent short squeeze of GameStop Corp ($GME).
Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley source questions from Real Vision members via The Exchange in this special, pre-recorded edition of The Real Vision Daily Briefing. Max and Jack discuss everything from how quantitative easing impacts the economy, to who their favorite contributors are, to how the evolution of their macro frameworks have evolved as a result of working at Real Vision. In addition to sharing their thoughts on stocks, bonds, and crypto, Max and Jack consider how their relatively young age should impact their risk tolerance and portfolio construction.
Buy the Reflation Rumor and Sell the Recovery News?
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to update his views on how yield curve steepening is affecting equity markets and his three potential outcomes for the reflation trade. Harrison and Wiethe also debate whether the reflation trade is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario and tee up Real Vision’s big content campaign for February where we attempt to answer the question, “Is Everything a Bubble?” In the intro, editor Jack Farley reviews price action and analyzes Morgan Stanley's latest earnings report.
The Fed's Quandary: Speculative Fervor Around Inflation Expectations
Michael Lebowitz, partner at Real Investment Advice, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss where inflation is headed and whether the market’s bet on the Fed getting it right this time has merit. Lebowitz discusses the nature of market price action for the past several months as risk assets have caught on fire and sector rotation has been occurring with incredible speed. With the growth of M1 and the velocity of money moving in opposite directions, Harrison and Lebowitz explore how the Fed might have to rethink their quantitative easing (QE) operations in order to achieve their goals of generating inflation. In light of this context, Lebowitz discusses his investment approach in this market environment. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin checks out the markets on the first full day of President Biden’s holding office.
Tony Greer - "When the Bond Market Speaks, I Like to Listen"
Tony Greer of TG Macro tells senior editor Ash Bennington why he has derisked as market sentiment spikes and the bond market continues to sell-off. Looking at indicators such as the put-to-call ratio and open call positions, Tony explains why he has sold off a series of his risk positions, most notably because of the inauguration tomorrow of President Elect Biden. Tony shares with Ash his plan of attack for various assets including grains, fertilizer stocks, and railways, which he sees as an apt way to trade rising inflation expectations. Ash and Tony discuss the continuing ascent of cryptocurrencies, and Tony describes the signals he is looking for in order to go full risk-on. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin recaps the market sentiment the day before President-elect Biden’s inauguration.
Society's Disenfranchisement and the Connection Between the Law, Money, and Corporatism
How you feel about gold, bitcoin, the Fed, or MMT probably has to do with how you answer the question, "What is Money?" In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital, Rohan Grey, assistant professor of law at Willamette University, argues that money is a construct of the law and as such is rooted in the social contract. In addition to discussing the importance of understanding this dynamic and its implications for crypto, MMT, and the banking system, Green and Grey explore the role of the law in society more broadly. Together they discuss the never ending dynamic between disruption and regulation, the rise of corporatism and the disenfranchisement felt by citizens who no longer feel able to affect change through the law, and the importance of civil discourse when discussing societies biggest problems. Filmed on January 13, 2021. Key Learnings: Grey and Green highlight that the "opt out" ideology of hard money enthusiasts is driven by a correct assessment that the system is broken, but that their prescribed solutions will only exacerbate the problem and fail to solve the bigger issue of the disenfranchisement of an overwhelming majority of the populace.
A World on The Brink, begins with Episode One, where host Dee Smith examines the complex world we live in and looks at how we have got to where we are today. In trying to gain an understanding, we delve back through history to the 300-year-old Westphalian Order and then move forward to the liberal international system and the rules based order. Together we explore how the many complex systems, agreements and structures from across centuries govern how our modern-day world functions and how in 2017 these systems are coming under increasing pressure. https://www.realvision.com/world-brink-disclaimer/
In Episode Two of 'A World on the Brink' – Globalization and its Discontents, Dee Smith examines globalization and its impact, bringing nearly a billion people out of poverty, but not without significant drawbacks. In this episode, we attempt to place globalization in context: as both progenitor and part of larger global changes that include automation, the rise of identity politics, economic contagion, and phenomena like Brexit. Contributors discuss the pros and cons of globalization in the context of the politics of nostalgia, populist movements, and attempts to recreate previous political and social structures. We also examine the largely unanswered questions that face us all, as opposing economic and social trends continue to gather strength. https://www.realvision.com/world-brink-disclaimer/
A region diverse in culture and history, yet the source of many of today's most violent conflicts. Episode 3 of A World On The Brink teases out threads from the tapestry of history to explain crucial yet less known factors—often missing from the popular narrative—which continue to drive conflict and change in the Middle East. These include the post WW1 redrawing of borders, the rise of Saudi oil wealth, the influence of Wahhabism, the formation of Al Qaeda, the resource curse and the rise of ISIS. https://www.realvision.com/world-brink-disclaimer/
In Episode Four of A World on the Brink, Dee Smith examines the changing nature of conflict. Breaking down some of the greatest threats to our world and their impact on nations, geopolitics, and individuals. From nuclear, cyber, and bio war to technology as a disruptive force and the threats from the connectivity revolution to dangers arising from natural disasters and to what might perhaps be the greatest threat of them all, human nature. https://www.realvision.com/world-brink-disclaimer/
What will the interactions among all the forces of social, political, and economic change mean for society going forward? Dee Smith puts the pieces together in the fifth and final episode of A World on the Brink, looking at what might be the ultimate causes of these changes and also exploring the crucial question of whether, and to what extent, the current systems and structures of the world will hold. Ultimately, the role of human nature and a look at history lend cause for both concern and for hope. https://www.realvision.com/world-brink-disclaimer/
Fred Hickey, editor of The High Tech Strategist, provides his unique take on the state of the technology sector, in this conversation with Tommy Thornton. Cutting through the valuations quandary, Fred questions the price people are paying for Apple, spells out the overseas regulatory threats for Facebook and Google, and offers a reminder that pioneers are the ones that can end up with arrows in their backs. Filmed December 21st, 2017 in New Hampshire.