Rob West, founder of Thunder Said Energy – an energy consulting firm, understands that the total decarbonization of the energy industry will be fueled by political attitudes around the world over the next few decades. However, West argues that proponents of ESG investing fail to understand that this transition will involve massive investment in fossil fuels and cooperation with villainized oil majors. He explains his framework for total decarbonization of the energy industry by 2050, and highlights the new technologies and investment vehicles that will be necessary to drive the transition. Filmed on October 18, 2019 in New York.
How can ordinary people behaving rationally create a generational threat? Raoul Pal, in his role as CEO and co-founder of Global Macro Investor, joins Real Vision to explain the interconnected problem of the everything bubble and the coming retirement crisis to answer the question, "why do we invest?" He explains in detail how the baby boomer generation, through the rational and reasonable behavior of seeking to live and retire comfortably, has fueled the creation of a massive financial bubble that touches nearly every corner of the economy as pensions take more and more risk. Pal breaks down the crucial demographic, economic, and political trends that have combined to create the problem and suggests potential solutions for Baby Boomers, Millennials, and Gen Xers to get out door before the fire of the coming recession. Filmed on February 4, 2020 in Grand Cayman. See Raoul's first Retirement Crisis video, which was watched by over 2 million people, here: https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/the-expert-view/videos/the-coming-retirement-crisis
Agricultural Commodities and the Impending Solar Cycle Shock
When trying to understand what is actually driving climate change, it is important to remember the source of the information. Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, considers himself to be a non-biased observer whose only financial incentive is to analyze the driving forces behind changes in weather to accurately forecast price movements in agricultural commodities for his clients made up of farmers, producers, and investors. Using analysis of natural cycles of the solar system and the sun, Hackett lays out his thesis that agricultural commodities are in for a massive shock as we enter into a period of increased weather volatility and lower temperatures. Filmed on January 29, 2020 in New York. Shawn Hackett’s report on agricultural commodities and solar cycles can be found here: https://www.hackettadvisors.com/Register_Sample_WeatherReport.asp
Ramsey Smith, founder and CEO of ALEX.fyi, is a firm believer in the power of annuities to provide guaranteed income to retirees at the time they need it the most. But he thinks that the annuities industry too often pushes retirees into complex (and high-fee) products. He founded ALEX.fyi to deliver affordable longevity protection by connecting retirees with simple, low-fee annuities, and he joins Real Vision to discuss his life mission is to be a “merchant of simplicity” rather than a “merchant of complexity.” Filmed on January 23, 2020, in New York.
$80 billion – that was the size of the hole in New Jersey’s state pension just 5 years ago when they empowered a commission to investigate its underfunding problems. Since then, the hole has ballooned to almost $130 billion. Thomas Healey, former Goldman Sachs executive and Assistant Secretary to the Treasury under Reagan, chaired a commission that found that politicians incentivized to provide new services and disincentivized to raise taxes were using the pension system as a piggy bank – perpetually kicking the can down the road and leaving pensions serially underfunded. Fortunately for New Jersey, there was light at the end of the tunnel and the commission was able to find a golden goose in the form of its generous health care benefits… Unfortunately, the same problems which led to the underfunding reared their ugly heads again, and the state failed to act on the findings of the commission. Healey reveals the reasons why New Jersey is still underfunding its pension today, and the $130 billion number is only set to grow. Filmed on January 28, 2020 in New York.
Treating Osteoarthritis: Playing the Paradigm Shift
Scott Williams, portfolio manager for Fiftyone Capital, sits down to explain why he thinks Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals could be a hundred-bagger. The company's repurposed pre-trial drug has already treated thousands of patients in Australia and is currently being tested on retired NFL players. Williams articulates his investment thesis to Real Vision's Justine Underhill in today's Trade Ideas. Filmed on December 3, 2019 in New York.
Dan McMurtrie, founder of Tyro Capital Management (also known as SuperMugatu on Twitter), joins Real Vision to discuss his analytical research into the off-the-beaten path sub-sectors of the global economy that he believes will provide asymmetric returns. He talks about the evolution of financial markets and how he takes advantage of inefficiencies in financial markets and social trends to find edge in a world sparse with alpha generating opportunities. He reveals his philosophy on asset allocation – balancing potential non-linear risks with opportunity capitalization. McMurtrie also shares a few of his favorite value plays and explains the reasoning behind his theses. Filmed on February 20, 2020 in New York.
Declining Fiscal Democracy: Understanding the "Pig in the Python"
C. Eugene "Gene" Steuerle, co-founder of Urban Brookings Tax Policy Center, has studied the intersection of demographics, the economy, and public policy for 30 years. He joins Real Vision to break down the demographic trends that have converged to create "a decline in fiscal democracy." Steuerle talks about the impact of the baby-boomer "pig in the python" and reveals how that phenomena has forced the government to focus spending on health care, social security, and interest payments. Finally, he explains why millennials will demand "generational democracy" and the potential political implications of the intergenerational conflict to come. Filmed on February 4, 2020 in Washington, D.C.
Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, examines via Skype the recent turmoil with an international cadre of outspoken experts: monetary economist George Selgin, George Goncalves of The Bond Strategist, Scott Skyrm, executive vice president at Curvature Securities, and Dr. Z. Barton Wang of Barton Research. Join Raoul on this voyage of discovery as he discusses repo and more with some of the sharpest minds in finance. Filmed on January 31, 2020, in Grand Cayman.
Billionaire real estate investor Jeff Greene built his fortune with a lifetime of hustle and no partners. In this interview with Raoul Pal, Greene explains how he transformed himself from a traveling circus ticket salesman to an investment titan putting on billion-dollar credit default swap trades. What began as a hedge turned into the trade of a lifetime when Greene astutely observed that shorting mortgage backed securities was a no-doubter in his first foray with derivatives. Greene also touches on his unique career path, his market outlook for a handful of asset classes, and the philanthropic endeavors that now dominate his focus. Filmed on January 23, in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Neil Howe, author of “The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny” and managing director of demography at Hedgeye, joins Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to discuss the demographic forces shaping the coming retirement crisis and the future of America. As one of the world’s foremost demographers, Howe breaks down the collective personality of generations – what he calls “generational archetypes” – and explains why he’s optimistic about the future relationship between Baby Boomers and Millennials. Filmed on February 4, 2020 in Washington, D.C.