High Yield & Income

Raoul Pal returns in his role as the founder of Global Macro Investor to update Real Vision members on the exponentially large role crypto is playing within his macro framework. Raoul argues that crypto is a "black hole" that is sucking in all of the world's talent and value at a speed that no one can comprehend and that its capacity to generate phenomenal returns for investors is not temporary but rather part of a durable long-term trend that is at the vanguard of what he calls "The Exponential Age." Raoul contends that since central banks have suppressed the volatility of currencies and interest rates, large "macro" on heavy swings in these variables no longer offer the opportunity they once did and that it is in the world of crypto where these outsized returns can be found. Filmed on April 10, 2021. Key learnings: Raoul sees the migration of value to the digital world as an exponential trend that offers opportunities for investment return that are no longer possible in traditional capital markets

Scott Burg, CIO and managing partner at Deer Park Road, is among the most seasoned and disciplined investors in the structured credit space who joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a conversation to break down the complex financial market within fixed income investing. Following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), structured credit has carried a stigma among certain investors of being unduly risky. There have since been significant regulatory and other changes to the structured credit asset class that have helped improve investor protection and rendered the market more attractive. Filmed April 13, 2020. Key Learnings: In the age of Covid-19, Burg is bullish on structured products like residential real estate, aircrafts and franchises. Elsewhere though, there are problems, particularly in commercial real estate where Wall Street never skipped a beat in pumping out product post-GFC and where lending standards were loose, especially after 2012. The result is a plethora of opportunities on both the long and short side due to motivated pension fund and bank sellers. In the coming months and years, there is expected to be more opportunities, due to likely distress in hotels, office and retail.

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, returns to Real Vision to discuss why he thinks inflation fears are perhaps pre-mature but that fiscal stimulus and the corresponding household net worth will play out in consumer spending and inflation around two quarters out. Even if we get inflation, Pies argues that inflation will have to be a lot higher for longer before it affects Fed policy. The mixed signals being sent from crude oil also factor in as a red flag for inflation because rising crude oil prices are a leading indicator of inflation. Warren is still positive on the reopening but believes many of the reopening stocks have repriced accordingly. He likes "entrenched interests" that already have deep ties to Washington D.C. to play increased fiscal. Filmed on April 12, 2021. Key Learnings: Outlooks for higher inflation and crude oil prices are potentially pre-mature. The reopening is going strong but reopening assets have repriced accordingly. Entrenched interests with deep histories of doing business with the federal government are Warren’s play on increased fiscal spending.

Dan Suzuki, Deputy CIO at Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a deep dive re-evaluation of portfolio asset allocations as the global economy is poised to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic economic shutdown. Suzuki suggests that what worked in the last decade – growth over value, U.S. exposure over international, large cap stocks over small cap, and investing in tech dominated companies – may not work in the coming cycle, and such allocations need to be rotated. Filmed April 7, 2021. Key Learnings: Coming out of the economic shutdowns, the market is starting to price in a much faster tightening cycle than the Fed is considering, spurring the need to re-analyze portfolio allocations. A suggested portfolio rotation includes more international exposure over U.S., small cap over large cap and mega cap companies, and a smaller allocation to technology and high-growth sectors.

Danish-born economist Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data, a data and analytics firm for institutional investors that specializes in foreign exchange markets and macroeconomic policy, joins Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal for a deep-dive conversation on the global economic outlook; the impact of the vaccine rollout on the U.S., Europe and emerging markets; and the likelihood of multi-year fiscal stimulus. Nordvig sees monetary policy frameworks evolving in ways that are unfriendly toward bonds, like Average Inflation Targeting (AIT), causing a fundamental rethinking among investors for owning fixed income assets. Filmed April 7, 2020. Key Learnings: A multi-decade bull market in fixed income lasted longer than many expected due to negative interest rate policy, and the COVID shock made central banks across the globe max out monetary policy. Interest rates are currently unattractive to many kinds of investors, and the economic outlook is such that risk assets look attractive, including cryptocurrency. Follow @jnordvig @ExanteData. Visit Exante Data (https://www.exantedata.com/).

Danish-born economist Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data, a data and analytics firm for institutional investors that specializes in foreign exchange markets and macroeconomic policy, joins Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal for a deep-dive conversation on the global economic outlook; the impact of the vaccine rollout on the U.S., Europe and emerging markets; and the likelihood of multi-year fiscal stimulus. Nordvig sees monetary policy frameworks evolving in ways that are unfriendly toward bonds, like Average Inflation Targeting (AIT), causing a fundamental rethinking among investors for owning fixed income assets. Filmed April 7, 2020. Key Learnings: A multi-decade bull market in fixed income lasted longer than many expected due to negative interest rate policy, and the COVID shock made central banks across the globe max out monetary policy. Interest rates are currently unattractive to many kinds of investors, and the economic outlook is such that risk assets look attractive, including cryptocurrency. Follow @jnordvig @ExanteData. Visit Exante Data (https://www.exantedata.com/).

Keith Dicker, founder and chief investment officer of IceCap Asset Management, returns to Real Vision to explain why he disagrees with the "reflation" narrative that has buoyed commodity prices and emerging market currencies. Dicker argues that rising yields will draw capital into the U.S. from regions whose capital had not fully recovered from the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and was further impaired by the COVID-19 recession. Key learnings: Dicker sees signs that the reflation trade is grinding to a halt and argues that renewed strength in the U.S. dollar could emerge. He is constructive on dollar-denominated assets and thinks a melt-up in U.S. equities is possible. Dicker thinks emerging market currencies and commodity prices such as copper and oil could encounter weakness as global growth slows down.

The Alaska Permanent Fund is the $75 billion sovereign wealth fund of the state of Alaska, and since oil was discovered in Alaska in the 1970s, the APF has been receiving royalties and investing that capital on behalf of Alaskan citizens. Every year, it pays out a dividend—a form of UBI—to the citizens, who also do not pay any state income tax. In this interview with Sean Fieler, president and CIO of Equinox Partners, Marcus Frampton, CIO of the APF, explains his own unconventional views on investing and how he is bucking the trend in the large institutional investor space. Together, they discuss why Frampton has allocated the APF in gold, active management, and macro hedge funds while resisting the urge to chase private equity like many of his peers. They also discuss Frampton's personal investing style and why he is so attracted to micro-cap stocks and OTC markets. Filmed on March 31, 2021. Key Learnings: Institutional investors, who are the major forces in global markets, are largely driven by the actuarial projections of consultants and, with a few exceptions like Marcus Frampton and the APF, tend to cluster into similar portfolios and assets.

Preston Pysh, founder of The Investors Podcast Network, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss value and valuation in the context of central bank policy at its limit. Pysh shares his journey from U.S. Army veteran to value investor and Buffettologist to crypto and Bitcoin advocate. As a value investor, he found it hard to continue looking narrowly at 'value' when he had serious doubts about the entire currency regime, given today's aggressive monetary policies. Eventually, that led Pysh to Bitcoin as an alternative store of value—and he believes Bitcoin is going to make markets free and open again. Filmed March 26, 2020. Key Learnings: Pysh explains some valuation metrics of Bitcoin and why he looks at it in four-year cycles given the supply halving schedule, which he calls the quantitative tightening cycle. He highlights that a long-term chart of the price of Bitcoin looks similar to Metcalfe's Law, which he uses as a Bitcoin price projection metric.

Famed investor Kevin O'Leary, aka Shark Tank’s Mr. Wonderful, joins Real Vision’s Raoul Pal to discuss his investment philosophy and why he rebalanced his portfolio to include 70% equities and 30% fixed income. He increased his weighting in gold to 5%, took a position in Bitcoin for the first time, and stresses the importance of ethical mining and why investors need to know where their Bitcoin is mined. When it comes to private market investments, O'Leary looks for direct-to-consumer companies as he has seen a digital pivot in America during the coronavirus pandemic, and he aims to find companies that have figured out social media and customer acquisition costs. Filmed March 22, 2021. Key Learnings: O'Leary builds his own index as chairman of O'Shares ETFs and shares his balance of U.S. and European stocks: O'Shares U.S. Quality Dividend (OUSAX), O'Shares U.S. Small-Cap Quality Dividend ETF (OUSMX), O’Shares Global Internet Giants (OGIGX) and O'Shares Europe Quality Dividend ETF (OEURX). He has studied throughout history how equities provide a bit of protection in the beginning of inflationary times because they have pricing power when

The Broadly Syndicated Loan (BSL) market is relatively new, having been created less than two decades ago. It is also widely misunderstood. So, what exactly makes this market an interesting play? Peter Gleysteen, CEO and CIO of AGL Credit Management LP, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to break down how the BSL market has emerged over time, its unique advantages as an asset class, and how to navigate it while maximizing returns. Gleysteen explains that broadly syndicated loans are not securities like investment grade and high yield bonds—they’re loans that are originated by banks, and borrowers range from medium to very large companies that are mostly private. He addresses some of the misconceptions in the BSL market around covenants, leverage, and diversification and how to view them. He also discusses the current macro picture, why BSL issuers are predominantly U.S.-based, and the market's similarities to and differences from high yield credit. Key Learnings: Gleysteen offers insight into why broadly syndicated loans are suitable and advantageous for investors with longer time horizons, describing bank loans as an "all-weather asset class". Presently, fewer than 10% of borrowers have been affected by the pandemic, and most are U.S.-based, which, in a world where the U.S. is outperforming, provides valuable exposure. He also highlights how much more liquid BSLs are relative to similar instruments, emphasizing how they offer stable cash returns. Rather than considering a loan on its own, he advises to pay more attention to properly diversifying BSLs within a portfolio as it minimizes the impact of default and loss rates and provides the means to employ leverage and earn outsized returns