Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, is joined by Bob Treue, founder of Barnegat Fund Management, to put on a clinic of idea generation. Due to its consistently high returns, Treue’s fund is ranked by Bloomberg as the world’s #1 fixed-income arbitrage fund. Treue shares with Hendry his process for consistent success and recounts some several of his grand-slam trades -- from arbitraging the spread between U.S. Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts to relative value plays on the yield curve for U.K gilts. Hugh Hendry can be found on HughHendry.com, on Instagram and Youtube as @hughhendryofficial, as well as on Twitter at @hendry_hugh.
Reinventing the Monetary System with Decentralized Finance
Alex Saunders, CEO and founder of Nugget’s News, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to explain the reinvention of the monetary system through new crypto payments systems based on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stable coins. He tells Raoul the story of his introduction into the crypto world. Saunders also breaks down the expansion of global e-commerce through the explosive growth of decentralized finance. Filmed on September 15, 2020.
Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, kicks off an exciting two weeks of content by explaining why we are endeavoring to answer the ultimate question, “has everything changed?” As well, Pal switches hats into his role as head of GMI to update viewers on his "unfolding" thesis and his own view on the question, “has everything changed?” He argues that the insolvency phase is being signaled by banks, BBB equities, and bond yields while tech stocks are stubbornly stuck in the hope phase, which has morphed into a dangerous speculation phase. He also runs through his outlook for the roster of major global asset classes and explains why he thinks Bitcoin is “the world’s best trade.” Filmed on September 17, 2020.
Private Credit and the Death Knell of the 60/40 Portfolio
Udayan Mitra, former head of investments at Altera Investments, joins Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss the state of fixed income investing in a world with near-zero interest rates. Mitra argues that yield hunger will force investors further into alternative credit strategies. Mitra lays out the various players in this space – private equity and credit funds, direct lending firms, as well as special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). Mitra then tells Harrison about how higher yields come at the price of reduced liquidity, and the pair weigh this trade-off. Lastly, Mitra shares specific opportunities and risks he sees in this space. Filmed on September 15, 2020.
Are bonds still effective portfolio diversifiers? What can the history of asset-backed securities tell us about their future? These are questions that Tom Rutledge, fixed income strategist at Magnetar Capital, explores alongside Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison. Rutledge outlines the myriad array of problems facing fixed-income investors -- from liquidity constraints to finding yield pick-ups as yields continue to decline. He then describes specific opportunities he sees in industries ranging from hospitality to tech. Filmed on September 3, 2020. Click here for Rutledge’s report, “Specialty Finance: An Investor’s History”: https://rvtv.io/2Rt9jtE
Michael Nicoletos, CIO and co-founder of Appletree Capital, is joined by John Floyd, head of macro strategies at Record Currency Management, to analyze the mounting pressures on the Turkish Lira as well as other emerging market (EM) currencies. Floyd breaks down his bearish thesis on the Turkish Lira (TRY), citing Turkey's deeply negative real rates, dwindling FX reserves, and a banking sector deeply indebted to foreign creditors on a dollar- or euro-denominated basis. Floyd and Nicoletos then discuss the knock-on effects of a Turkish Lira collapse as so many European banks (especially Spanish ones) are heavily exposed to Turkey. Lastly, Floyd shares with Nicoletos the various trades to express this view. Filmed on September 9, 2020. For John Floyd's report, click here: https://rvtv.io/3bMJSMN
Keith Dicker, founder and CIO of IceCap Asset Management, joins Real Vision to give a strategic overview of the U.S. Dollar. Dicker breaks down the Eurodollar system to analyze the pressures on non-dollar currencies: negative rates, extreme debt borrowings, and government deficits spiraling out of control. Dicker takes a look at what is in store for the Turkish Lira as well as other emerging market currencies and discusses the fate of the DXY currencies as well. Dicker then provides a guidepost for how investors can position themselves to take advantage of asymmetric opportunities. Filmed on September 8, 2020. For additional charts from Dicker's long dollar fund (which he co-manages with Brent Johnson), click here: http://icecapassetmanagement.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2020.05.21-Special-Presentation-Santiago-IceCap.pdf
For weeks leading up to the recent dramatic sell-off, the VIX and other measures of equity volatility like the VXN were rising as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite were humming along higher and higher. To long vol traders like Matt Rowe, CIO of Headwaters Solutions, this was a huge tell that something was looming on the horizon. Rowe explains how he prepares his portfolio for these types of events, why mini volatility events can be much more profitable for long vol traders than the market meltdown we saw in March, and also explains why chasing an expanding vol market can be a fatal error. As well, he gives insight into market positioning going into the event, the chances that this mini event could turn into something much larger, and attempts to answer the ultimate question of, “what is the strike of the Fed put?” should this sell-off continue. Filmed on September 4, 2020.
Alexander Leishman, founder and CEO of River Financial, joins Real Vision to break down his venture, River.com, and his perspective on the crypto space. Leishman talks about the problems that River solves for investors as the first bitcoin financial institution. He explains the complex world of bitcoin banking services including the coming technical innovations, the diverse set of clientele crypto banking can serve, and the future adoption of crypto by the corporate world. Additionally, Leishman shares his thesis for the future of bitcoin itself, arguing that if bitcoin continues on its current trajectory, it could replace the US Dollar as the world reserve currency. Filmed August 25, 2020.
If you haven’t been living under a rock, you’ve probably heard the narrative that cities are dead and that white collar workers, now unburdened by the ability to work from home, are fleeing to the suburbs as fast as they can. Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at Housing Wire, explains to Real Vision’s Ash Bennington why it is nothing more than an interesting narrative. He goes on to add that, aside from a few pockets in New York and San Francisco, the relative strength in the suburban housing market is being driven by the only factors that matter -- demographics and mortgage rates. Bennington and Mohtashami also drill down on the relationship between bond yields and mortgage rates and the knock-on effects into housing demand that you could see depending on different scenarios for those rates. Filmed on August 26, 2020.
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, is joined by Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial to discuss the most pressing issues on the macro horizon. After exploring whether quantitative easing (QE) and low rates are inflationary or deflationary, Johnson and Van Metre take a deep dive into the plumbing of the Treasury market and specifically the operations of the Fed's FOMC. Van Metre explains why he believes the Fed's policies have actually caused banks to tighten their lending standards rather than loosen them as the Fed intended. The pair then take a look at swap lines and the Eurodollar funding market as well as the effect a credit contraction would have on the U.S. dollar. Lastly, Van Metre talks about his Real Vision journey and how the knowledge he’s gained has helped him as an investor as well as a financial advisor. Filmed on August 24, 2020. For additional charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3gARHG7
George Goncalves: Why the Fed Wants to Avoid Yield Curve Control
Many have written off the bond market as the arbiter of truth with claims that the Fed’s intervention into the market has removed price discovery. In this interview, bond strategist George Goncalves argues otherwise and makes the case that there is still plenty of valuable information left in the long end of the curve. He also points out that the Fed has stepped back from the market recently, touches on the Fed’s ever-dwindling quiver of arrows as it relates to yield curve control, and explains why he believes they will do anything they can to avoid it. Additionally, he gives his short and long-term view on where yields are headed, arguing that although he doesn’t believe the low is in for yields, we may see 1.00% or higher on the 10-year before we get there. Filmed on August 25, 2020.
