Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Cornerstone Macro, returns to Real Vision to articulate his stock market outlook for 2020. Noting ultra-low interest rates, narrow credit spreads, and a record-low level of cyclicality in the S&P 500, Kantrowitz argues that while the stock market is certainly expensive, it may not necessarily be overvalued. He recommends a balanced approach that favors value stocks over growth, cyclical over non-cyclical, and domestic over foreign. Filmed on January 21, 2020 in New York.
Do higher yields actually lead to higher realized returns in private markets? Dan Rasmussen is the founder of Verdad Advisors — a firm that applies a private equity investing framework to public markets in an effort to replicate private market returns and reduce risk. He joins Real Vision to shed light on the phenomena of “fool’s yield.” Rasmussen argues that investors have been seduced by the promise of boosted returns and ignored the myriad of risks in the opaque investment space rife with deteriorating credit quality, obfuscated default rates, and a major lack of regulation. Filmed on January 16, 2020 in New York.
Canadian Banks: "The Anchor That Drags Your Whole Portfolio Down"
Kevin Muir, editor of the Macro Tourist newsletter, sits down with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to discuss why he believes interest rates and inflation, long tempered by dovish monetary policy, will rise once again. He sees Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a good way to hedge against the U.S. dollar’s inflationary risk and recommends shorting both the Canadian dollar and Canadian banks. He also explains his bullish thesis on energy stocks, which he argues is a bargain at current prices. Filmed on January 13, 2020, in Toronto.
Canadian Banks: "The Anchor That Drags Your Whole Portfolio Down"
Kevin Muir, editor of the Macro Tourist newsletter, sits down with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to discuss why he believes interest rates and inflation, long tempered by dovish monetary policy, will rise once again. He sees Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a good way to hedge against the U.S. dollar’s inflationary risk and recommends shorting both the Canadian dollar and Canadian banks. He also explains his bullish thesis on energy stocks, which he argues is a bargain at current prices. Filmed on January 13, 2020, in Toronto.
David Rosenberg returns to Real Vision to discuss the interplay between yield and price in an era of record-low interest rates. In conversation with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, he warns about the decade-long asset inflation in stocks as well as in bonds, which he perceives as a liquidity cycle not backed by fundamentals. He predicts central banks will remain dovish and reveals why he is constructive on gold, commodities, energy stocks, and a number of long-duration treasuries. Filmed on January 13, 2020, in Toronto.
Bond Market Secrets: Offsetting Asymmetric Downside Risk
Gershon Distenfeld co-heads a fixed-income team at AllianceBernstein that manages over $300 billion in assets. He joins Real Vision to discuss how the high-yield credit space can function as an alternative to the stock market and why the best bond investors focus on avoiding losers rather than picking winners. He underscores the importance of fixed-income diversification and gives his thoughts on leveraged loans, collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). Filmed on January 10, 2020, in New York.
Addicted to Yield: Wall Street's Dirty Little Secret
New York Times' bestselling author, former M&A investment banker, and long-time financial journalist, William Cohan, joins Ed Harrison to discuss the perilous state of U.S. credit markets, quantitative easing, junk bonds, and the ever-expanding pool of global debt. Predicated on the idea that persistently low interest rates have fueled distortions in the pricing of risk, Cohan argues that Wall Street has been developing a dangerous dependency that won't end profitably for the majority of investors. Filmed on January 7, 2020, in New York.
Daniel Zwirn, CEO of Arena Investors, kicks off Debt Week by bringing his unique credit framework to Real Vision. Zwirn argues that a decade of cheap money has worsened credit quality, but that nevertheless there are lucrative fixed-income opportunities on the long- as well as short-side. He warns of the risks he sees in leveraged loans (as well as the CLOs that package them), noting the "asset-liability mismatch" as one of his most severe concerns. Other topics include: regulatory change, interest rate risk, and idiosyncratic plays in energy and real estate. Filmed on January 6, 2020, in New York.
Jay Pelosky of TPW Investment Management sits down with Real Vision's Ed Harrison to discuss his investment framework for 2020. Looking at macro factors that could surprise market participants, Pelosky breaks down why the investors and institutions are unprepared for the level of inflation he expects to bear out in 2020. Additionally, Pelosky explains why an unexpected inflationary event could send the equity markets soaring and shock the bond market into downturn. Filmed on December 20, 2019 in New York.
2020's Intersection of Markets, Macro, and Politics
Jason Trennert, chairman of Strategas Partners, sits down with Vincent Catalano to explain how Wall Street research house is looking ahead to the coming year. Trennert shares his analysis of markets, the macro landscape, and the political environment heading into the 2020 election. Filmed on December 16, 2019 in New York.
Down the A.I. Rabbit Hole: Hedge Funds, Wall St, & Machine Learning
Artificial intelligence and machine learning are poised to "eat the world" — but how, exactly, do they work together on Wall Street to make money for traders? NYU business professor, data scientist, and hedge fund manager Vasant Dhar sits down with fellow hedge fund manager and mathematician Hari Krishnan to take a deep dive into the cutting edge where technology meets markets. Filmed on December 9, 2019 in New York.
Famed economist Dr. Nouriel Roubini sits down with Real Vision's Ash Bennington to discuss the outlook for markets and the global economy in 2020 — including his prescient insight on the risks of war with Iran and the potential for a worldwide energy shock caused by conflict in the Middle East. Roubini also explores global growth, US equities & fixed income, The Fed and global central banks, and the tail risks of China trade, politics, and AI. Filmed on December 10, 2019 in New York.
