The home of stock ideas and strategies that run against the herd in search of undervalued companies cheap or ideas left for dead by other investors but which have the potential to deliver above average returns.
What happens when an upheaval so massive forces financial markets, governments, and society to rethink how our systems work? Michael Krieger, author of the Liberty Blitzkrieg, joins Real Vision to explain what coronavirus and the response to the outbreak has revealed about the condition of American systems – from financial markets to the health care system. Tracing the story of financial markets and societal trends over the past two decades, Krieger outlines how our systems have been pushed to the brink – focusing on emergency policy responses and the everything bubble. He also provides viewers with potential solutions to the systemic decay that has been brought to the forefront by the coronavirus outbreak.
In the past few years, nobody could have predicted that a pandemic would be the catalyst sending shock waves through the entire global economy, plunging us into a bear market in record time. Some voices though have been screaming from the rooftops about the macroeconomic and structural weaknesses that left markets vulnerable to any potential disruption. One of those voices was Steen Jakobsen, CIO of Saxo Bank. In this interview with Roger Hirst, Jakobsen examines the weaknesses of a buyback-driven and debt-ridden market that have been quickly exposed by coronavirus. They also look into the future at how the crisis will affect real assets, the dollar, the banking system, and why, when all is said and done, we could see both inflation and deflation.
Kiril Sokoloff, chairman and founder of 13D Global Strategy and Research, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and its long-term consequences on monetary policy, investing, and geopolitics. Pal and Sokoloff analyze how a protracted quarantine might slow economic activity to such a degree that central banks become more active than they ever have before, either by monetizing debt or by purchasing risk assets outright. The pair also explore how the crisis might affect the 2020 election, the practice of stock buybacks, and specific assets like oil, gold, and the Japanese Yen. Released March 26, 2020.
Credit Chaos and Fool's Yield: Updating the Thesis
Dan Rasmussen, the CIO and Founder of Verdad Capital Advisers, speaks with his colleague Greg Obenshain, Verdad’s director of credit, to examine the credit market sell-off over the past two months. They focus on the recent widening of spreads and other areas of financial markets hit hardest by the recent acceleration. Rasmussen asks Obenshain what the biggest factors for returns in corporate credit are, the turmoil in the credit markets has impacted the energy sector, and where they see the biggest opportunities for investors will be coming out of the crisis. They also update Verdad’s Fool’s Yield thesis that the company has been writing about since January 2020 and that Rasmussen has presented to Real Vision members in the past few months. Filmed on March 17, 2020 over Skype.
Tobias Carlisle, principal and founder of Acquirer's Fund, sits down with Chris Cole of Artemis Capital Management to discuss how to find pockets of deep value in a world saturated with liquidity. Carlisle outlines the various valuation metrics (price-to-book, price-to-sales, price-to-earnings, etc.) and describes which metrics he thinks have the most predictive power in today's market. Surveying the mediocre performance of value over the past two decades, Carlisle argues that value is due for a bounce. Cole and Carlisle conclude by constructing the framework for investors to combine the "long-val" play with "long-vol" play. Filmed on February 7, 2020, in Austin, Texas.
Dan McMurtrie, founder of Tyro Capital Management (also known as SuperMugatu on Twitter), joins Real Vision to discuss his analytical research into the off-the-beaten path sub-sectors of the global economy that he believes will provide asymmetric returns. He talks about the evolution of financial markets and how he takes advantage of inefficiencies in financial markets and social trends to find edge in a world sparse with alpha generating opportunities. He reveals his philosophy on asset allocation – balancing potential non-linear risks with opportunity capitalization. McMurtrie also shares a few of his favorite value plays and explains the reasoning behind his theses. Filmed on February 20, 2020 in New York.
Public Employee "Plunder" and California's Perfect Storm
Steve Greenhut, Western region director at R Street Institute and author of "Plunder: How Public Employee Unions are Raiding Treasuries, Controlling Our Lives and Bankrupting the Nation," joins Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisers to discuss his coverage of the political paralysis that surrounds the issue of pensions in California. He guides Mike on a deep-dive into the gargantuan public employee compensation complex and how that complex bleeds into every other aspect of California government spending. He argues that public employees have forced state and local governments into a corner wherein they cannot maintain their obligations because of the massive burden of pension disbursements and employee compensation. Due to a lack of transparency, pension assumptions based on guesswork, and legal precedent overturning democratic decisions, Greenhut says that the perfect storm that will surely "surprise" Californian politicians has been plain to see for longer than a decade. Filmed on February 6, 2020 in Sacramento, California.
Neil Howe, author of "The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny" and managing director of demography at Hedgeye, joins Real Vision's Ed Harrison to discuss the demographic forces shaping the coming retirement crisis and the future of America. As one of the world's foremost demographers, Howe breaks down the collective personality of generations – what he calls "generational archetypes" – and explains why he's optimistic about the future relationship between Baby Boomers and Millennials. Filmed on February 4, 2020 in Washington, D.C.
How can ordinary people behaving rationally create a generational threat? Raoul Pal, in his role as CEO and co-founder of Global Macro Investor, joins Real Vision to explain the interconnected problem of the everything bubble and the coming retirement crisis to answer the question, "why do we invest?" He explains in detail how the baby boomer generation, through the rational and reasonable behavior of seeking to live and retire comfortably, has fueled the creation of a massive financial bubble that touches nearly every corner of the economy as pensions take more and more risk. Pal breaks down the crucial demographic, economic, and political trends that have combined to create the problem and suggests potential solutions for Baby Boomers, Millennials, and Gen Xers to get out door before the fire of the coming recession. Filmed on February 4, 2020 in Grand Cayman. See Raoul's first Retirement Crisis video, which was watched by over 2 million people, here: https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/the-expert-view/videos/the-coming-retirement-crisis
Billionaire real estate investor Jeff Greene built his fortune with a lifetime of hustle and no partners. In this interview with Raoul Pal, Greene explains how he transformed himself from a traveling circus ticket salesman to an investment titan putting on billion-dollar credit default swap trades. What began as a hedge turned into the trade of a lifetime when Greene astutely observed that shorting mortgage backed securities was a no-doubter in his first foray with derivatives. Greene also touches on his unique career path, his market outlook for a handful of asset classes, and the philanthropic endeavors that now dominate his focus. Filmed on January 23, in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, returns to Real Vision to explain why he is looking to short the Vanguard International Bond ETF (BNDX). Boockvar describes how most of BNDX’s constituent bonds offer yields that are either ultralow or negative and argues that shorting the fund trade could be a relatively safe hedge against a global hike in interest rates. Filmed on January 22, 2020, in New York.
Maziar Minovi, CEO of Eurasia Group, joins Real Vision to discuss the biggest geopolitical threats to global stability that he sees on the horizon. He analyzes the ongoing decoupling of the US-China trade relationship and argues that the severing of technological protocols could inflict the most lasting damage. Minovi explains why he believes the rising cynicism of the American voter to be the greatest risk to global stability. Filmed on January 22, 2020, in New York.