Contrarian

The home of stock ideas and strategies that run against the herd in search of undervalued companies cheap or ideas left for dead by other investors but which have the potential to deliver above average returns.

Real Vision Sep 21, 2021
Risk Works in Both Directions
Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, LLC, and Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, discuss how risk works in both directions. The pair explore how to think differently about markets, making a case for a more nuanced understanding of the sequence vs. focusing on the ultimate goal of making money. They take a closer look at repeatable processes such as buy and hold strategies and market timing as well as lumber and gold as symptomatic indicators of markets and the wealth gap. Filmed on September 13, 2021.
Real Vision Sep 15, 2021
The Hidden Gem of Value Investing: Intangible Assets
Kai Wu, founder & CIO of Sparkline Capital, sits down with Dan Rasmussen, partner at Verdad Advisers, to discuss his research on intangible moats as a game changer to value investing. Through alternative data extraction methods, Wu seeks to uncover alpha from company talent, culture, and technological innovation. They examine the disruptive nature of companies with invaluable intangible assets and explore the idea that intangibles provide excess stock return for innovative companies. Filmed on September 8, 2021.
Sep 01, 2021
Leveraging Deep Knowledge in Crypto Fund Management
Fund managers Felix Hartmann, managing partner of Hartmann Capital, and Ari Paul, co-founder and CIO of BlockTower Capital, come together to discuss how knowledge gaps can be leveraged to gain a competitive edge. They discuss the importance of participating in governance of proof-of-stake tokens, a task that is foregone by many investors and especially important for fund managers who potentially control a large portion of voting rights. Hartmann and Paul also jump into the conceptual realm of what the world could look like as a multi-chain, decentralized world and discuss how crypto is a global phenomenon yet very different from the traditional sense of the word "globalism". Filmed on August 27, 2021.
Real Vision Aug 25, 2021
Rob Arnott: "Valuation Is King When It Comes to Shaping Long-Term Returns"
Research Affiliates founding chairman Rob Arnott is one of the most influential and respected quantitative investors and financial analysts in the global investment community for the past three decades. From his award-winning research, he spearheaded several unique portfolio strategies that are widely applied such as tactical asset allocation. Arnott returns to Real Vision, sharing his insights on valuation and portfolio construction within the context of capital markets today, which are being carried ever higher and becoming ever frothier by excess liquidity and building inflationary pressure. Interviewed by Ash Bennington on August 19, 2021.
Real Vision Aug 17, 2021
Harris Kupperman: Capturing the Upside with Macro and Event-Driven Plays
Known for his non-consensus thinking and event-driven strategies, Praetorian Capital president Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman breaks down his framework and shares his thoughts on everything from ESG and the energy sector to inflation and technology. In this wide-ranging discussion with Alpha Architect CEO Wes Gray, Kupperman discusses his background and how he came into finance initially as well as his investment rules and style. He also explains why he thinks there's more opportunity on the opposite side of ESG, what his plays are on Project Zimbabwe, why short selling is "suicidal megalomania," and why tech is a bad business to be in. Filmed on July 28, 2021.
Aug 12, 2021
Crypto Update: Regulation, NFTs, Elon Musk, Binance, and More
A true expert in journalism, Daniel Roberts, editor-in-chief at Decrypt, shares his enthusiastic and eclectic perspectives on all the recent developments within crypto. Topics include everything under the sun when it comes to crypto: Tether, Binance, NFTs, regulation, Elon Musk, politics, and why a "crypto winter" may be different this time around. Notably, Roberts shares his unfiltered opinions on the fascinating philosophical schism that has arisen between crypto investors when it comes to regulation and where he believes this divide likely occurred. Interviewed by Ash Bennington on July 30, 2021.
Real Vision Aug 09, 2021
Wage Inflation, Work-From-Home, and The Commodity Supercycle
After nearly three decades of trading in commodities, futures, FX, and equity markets, Bob Iaccino, co-CIO of The Stock Think Tank, shares his risk-first approach to investing and his incorporation of technical analysis for position sizing, risk management, and buying opportunities. In this wide-ranging discussion, he explains his perspective on why inflation is not transitory, the market risks for when another recession comes, and his highest conviction views. Interviewed by Jack Farley on August 4, 2021.
Aug 02, 2021
Framework: The DeFi Incubator
Michael Anderson and Vance Spencer, co-founders of Framework Ventures, discuss how Framework Ventures is a venture capital firm through and through—however, the company is unique in that it employs a software development department to assist their investees in growing, particularly with tokenization. Spencer believes tokenization has the potential to produce robust network effects, underestimated by traditional applications of Metcalfe's Law. Anderson and Spencer discuss topics including their transition from traditional tech into crypto and the revolutionary implications of protocols like "Automated Market Makers". Interviewed by Ash Bennington on July 21, 2021.
Real Vision Jul 30, 2021
Creative Disruption in the Exponential Age
In this two-hour interview—the first of its kind—Kiril Sokoloff interviews Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Investment Management. As of March 2021, ARK manages seventy-four billion dollars in assets and the performance of its funds has been spectacular. Cathie provides a deep level of insight into the events that will shape the exponential age. She discusses how half of the S&P 500 is now threatened by disruptive innovation and how research departments in the asset management business are going to have restructure as a result. Cathie describes her approach to research – embracing transparency, openly sharing information, and the importance of ARK's legendary brainstorming sessions. Cathie explains how sell-side analysts don't fully understand how technology is impacting the fundamentals of the companies they follow and how these new transformative technologies are driving this innovative revolution—the greatest revolution in 100 years and possibly in the history of capitalism. Cathie discusses, in detail, the five sectors at the forefront of innovation: DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, blockchain and AI, and then breaks down the 14 general-purpose technologies that she thinks will change the world – some of which include: blockchain, autonomous mobility, gene editing, adaptive robotics, reusable rockets, and neural networks. As one of the first investors in Bitcoin, Cathie thinks it could add $500,000 of value by 2025 and might replace bonds in the traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio. She sees deflation rather than inflation ahead and shares with Kiril how her faith has carried her through the tough years. Filmed on July 13, 2021.
Real Vision Jul 26, 2021
Cathie Wood: Creative Disruption and the Sectors It Will Devastate
13D Research & Strategy founder and CEO Kiril Sokoloff welcomes long-time friend and the world’s greatest innovation investor in public markets Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Investment Management LLC. Drawing on her professional and personal life experiences, Wood shares how they have shaped her perspective on the rapidly evolving exponential trends that will disrupt the investment landscape—and sooner than many expect. She projects that transformative innovation will lift the market cap in publicly-traded companies focused in these technologies from $14 trillion to $75 trillion in the next five to ten years, which threatens to make nearly half of the companies in the S&P 500 obsolete. As well, Sokoloff and Wood explore the challenges posed to the asset management industry as it has been slow to adjust to the high-speed pace of this technological change. Taking into account the Fed’s ongoing dovish policy stance, the movement of bond yields, and the shift to a consumption of services, Wood also unpacks her insights into the cyclical deflationary set-up she sees unfolding. Filmed on July 13, 2021.
Real Vision Jul 22, 2021
So You Want To Be A Prop-Trader? Bonds, Options, and Dispersion
Noel Smith, CIO at Convex Asset Management, returns to Real Vision to dive into his core options trading strategies implemented at Convex Asset Management as well as his journey from prop trading to hedge funds. Smith argues that prop trading allowed him to tolerate greater risk in comparison to the steady returns required by outside funds in hedge funds. Smith walks through his 4 core strategies: VIX trading, Treasury volatility, volatility arbitrage, and dispersion trades. Smith disagrees with the consensus that trading is a zero-sum game and instead believes that following personal conviction will lead to success over time. Interviewed by Jack Farley on July 20, 2021.
Real Vision Jul 21, 2021
Milton Berg: Are Equities at a Peak?
Milton Berg, CIO of Milton Berg Advisors, joins Real Vision to share his technical framework for analyzing market signals and reasons why he believes we could be entering a bear market. In comparison to fundamental analysis, Berg argues that technical analysis is more effective because it gives the investor the confidence to abandon losing positions and stay with winning positions. Berg walks through historical charts of different markets and explains his analysis of buy and sell signals. He also explains the significance of Montgomery cycle dates in forecasting market turns due to their connection with human behavior. Interviewed by Jack Farley on July 15, 2021.