The home of stock ideas and strategies that run against the herd in search of undervalued companies cheap or ideas left for dead by other investors but which have the potential to deliver above average returns.
Cathie Wood: Creative Disruption and the Sectors It Will Devastate
13D Research & Strategy founder and CEO Kiril Sokoloff welcomes long-time friend and the world’s greatest innovation investor in public markets Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Investment Management LLC. Drawing on her professional and personal life experiences, Wood shares how they have shaped her perspective on the rapidly evolving exponential trends that will disrupt the investment landscape—and sooner than many expect. She projects that transformative innovation will lift the market cap in publicly-traded companies focused in these technologies from $14 trillion to $75 trillion in the next five to ten years, which threatens to make nearly half of the companies in the S&P 500 obsolete. As well, Sokoloff and Wood explore the challenges posed to the asset management industry as it has been slow to adjust to the high-speed pace of this technological change. Taking into account the Fed’s ongoing dovish policy stance, the movement of bond yields, and the shift to a consumption of services, Wood also unpacks her insights into the cyclical deflationary set-up she sees unfolding. Filmed on July 13, 2021.
So You Want To Be A Prop-Trader? Bonds, Options, and Dispersion
Noel Smith, CIO at Convex Asset Management, returns to Real Vision to dive into his core options trading strategies implemented at Convex Asset Management as well as his journey from prop trading to hedge funds. Smith argues that prop trading allowed him to tolerate greater risk in comparison to the steady returns required by outside funds in hedge funds. Smith walks through his 4 core strategies: VIX trading, Treasury volatility, volatility arbitrage, and dispersion trades. Smith disagrees with the consensus that trading is a zero-sum game and instead believes that following personal conviction will lead to success over time. Interviewed by Jack Farley on July 20, 2021.
Milton Berg, CIO of Milton Berg Advisors, joins Real Vision to share his technical framework for analyzing market signals and reasons why he believes we could be entering a bear market. In comparison to fundamental analysis, Berg argues that technical analysis is more effective because it gives the investor the confidence to abandon losing positions and stay with winning positions. Berg walks through historical charts of different markets and explains his analysis of buy and sell signals. He also explains the significance of Montgomery cycle dates in forecasting market turns due to their connection with human behavior. Interviewed by Jack Farley on July 15, 2021.
Mario Gabelli, Chairman & CEO of Gabelli Funds, joins Stephen Clapham, founder of Behind the Balance Sheet, on Real Vision to explain his unique investment framework for identifying companies that generate long-term returns. Gabelli stresses the importance of physically visiting companies to grasp a complete understanding of a business and the management team. He references his previous experiences with inflation as he provides his opinions on the ongoing inflation debate. Gabelli shares his mindset behind his successful investments in the media and telecom industries as well as future areas that will be profitable as alternative energy becomes prevalent. Interviewed by Stephen Clapham on July 7, 2021.
Alpha Architect CEO Wes Gray welcomes Tariq Dennison, managing partner, retirement plan investing at GFM Asset Management, for a wide-ranging conversation on his market insights and the case for investing in emerging markets (EM). Based in Hong Kong, Dennison shares his story in how he came to be interested in EM and co-founded GFM. He also argues for why investors should make higher allocations toward EM, shares his investment approach as it relates to the rise of passive investing, and discusses his thoughts on Bitcoin. Filmed on June 22, 2021.
Valuations Matter: Intrinsic Value in The Age of Unreason
Real Vision's Jack Farley welcomes Aswath Damodaran, legendary professor of corporate finance at New York University's Stern School of Business, to discuss valuation techniques, Bitcoin, and the impact of inflation on market prices. Damodaran walks through the building blocks of fundamental valuation, examining discount rates, equity risk premiums, price to earnings ratio, and comparative valuation. He examines Bitcoin's performance during the height of the pandemic as well as the investment debate between growth and value stocks. Damodaran argues that currencies and collectibles can only be priced—not valued. Specifically, he states that, unlike gold, Bitcoin is an ineffective collectible because it failed to behave independently of the stock market during the pandemic downturn. Furthermore, he explains the impact that inflation has on equity valuations and Federal Reserve actions. Filmed on June 3, 2021. Key Learnings: Damodaran explains the mindset behind effective investing. He argues that analysis is not complete when an investor finds a company overvalued or undervalued because it is a singular judgment at a point in time. Damodaran believes that the mantra to buy quality companies leads investors to overpay for companies at prices that do not reflect intrinsic value. He stresses the idea that good companies can be bad investments while bad companies can be good investments at any point in time due to fluctuations in price.
CIOs of institutions like endowments, pensions, family offices, and sovereign wealth funds are stewards of the world's largest pools of capital, and their asset allocation decisions have huge impacts on markets and the managers chasing these allocations. In this interview with Jason Buck, CIO of Mutiny Fund, Ted Seides, host of "The Capital Allocators Podcast" and author of "Capital Allocators: How the World's Elite Money Managers Lead and Invest", shares the wisdom he has gained from working alongside legends like David Swenson and from interviewing hundreds of similarly influential allocators and the managers they invest with. Together, they discuss how these investors make decisions on both portfolio construction and manager selection, the best leadership qualities he has seen for both allocators and managers, and the tips and tricks he has learned for interviewing with these allocators, who can make or break an investing career. Filmed on May 4, 2021.
May 21, 2021
Challenging the Exponential Age Thesis
Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal welcomes R. Martin Chavez, vice chairman and partner of Sixth Street Partners, for a wide-ranging conversation in which they discuss their differing perspectives relating to Raoul's thesis on The Exponential Age. Chavez shares his background from his PhD studies in medical information sciences at Stanford to working at Goldman Sachs where he served a variety of roles including chief information officer and chief financial officer. In particular, Pal and Chavez debate their exceptions on the ways in which the ever-increasing digitization of the eco-system will or will not change the world for better or worse. Filmed May 18th, 2021. To continue the discussion with fellow Real Vision members on this interview, click here to visit the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/342LlM3 Key Learnings: Chavez believes that the digitization of currency will not occur through the adoption of stable coins but rather through the federal government creating their own digital dollar. Furthermore, Chavez expresses skepticism about the supposedly positive implications of increased retail investors entering the space through easy-to-trade apps like Robinhood as well as crowd-sourcing investment ideas across social media platforms. Ultimately, Pal and Chavez both agree that the next decade will be bring about revolutionary change through the rapidly accelerating pace of blockchain technology, but volatility and risk will be a feature of the space for the foreseeable future.
Over the next two weeks, Real Vision will be embarking on a journey to explore the technologies of the future and what opportunities they offer investors. That journey begins today with a conversation between Raoul Pal, Real Vision’s co-founder and CEO, and Ed Harrison, Real Vision’s managing editor. Laying out his thesis, "The Exponential Age," Raoul argues that the linear progression of asset prices in nominal terms is an illusion, and that when one takes into account the engorged denominator of central bank balance sheets, only by investing in exponential megatrends can investors escape monetary debasement. Raoul contends that these megatrends include not only crypto but also autonomous and electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, digital communities of engagement, and other platforms whose “network effects” allow for exponential growth. Filmed on May 5, 2021. Key learnings: Raoul argues that the world is at the beginning of a migration to a digitalized economy where innovation will give rise to tremendous change. The Metaverse is in its infancy, he contends, and those who embrace it can adapt. To continue the discussion with fellow Real Vision members on Raoul and Ed's interview, click here to visit the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3o4HmaW.
Warren Buffett on Stocks and Inflation - Plus the Interest Rate Swirl
Real Vision managing Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down today’s market action in stocks, bonds, and commodities. Farley interprets Warren Buffett’s latest comments at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders’ meeting, and he and Harrison discuss Buffett’s statements on inflation and equity performance as well as the announcement of Buffett’s successor. Harrison evaluates recent moves in the bond market and shares his views on whether currencies or interest rates will be the “release valve” for volatility as equities grind higher.
Nick Halaris, president of Metros Capital, returns to Real Vision to give an update of the real estate market -- from the boom in residential housing to the struggles of impaired commercial properties. In this interview with Real Vision’s Jack Farley, Halaris attributes the surge in housing prices to a hidden form of inflation that is not captured in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and that is facilitated by quantitative easing from central banks, a process that he terms "quantitative transmission." Halaris explains why he thinks gold and Bitcoin will triumph over bonds in this inflationary environment and shares the generational importance of these assets. Lastly, he breaks down the prospects as he sees them of commercial properties such as malls, hotels, and offices. Filmed on April 14, 2021. Key learnings: The pandemic has caused a paradigm shift in how Americans view housing, and as such, Halaris thinks the boom in residential real estate will continue. On the commercial side, Halaris is much more bearish. He thinks inflation will run hot and therefore is highly constructive on assets such as gold and Bitcoin.