The home of stock ideas and strategies that run against the herd in search of undervalued companies cheap or ideas left for dead by other investors but which have the potential to deliver above average returns.
What happens when the monetary and fiscal engines run too hot? This is the question that Larry McDonald, New York Times bestselling author and founder of the Bear Traps Report, explores with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal. McDonald and Pal start by analyzing the valuations of high-flying tech stocks and discuss whether they will continue to soar or make an early landing. The pair then examine in detail the remarkable price action seen over the past few months in commodities such as precious metals, lumber, and natural gas. McDonald compiles this appreciation as evidence to explore his thesis that excessive stimulus could serve as a "cobra effect" to augur a hyperinflationary economic collapse. Filmed on August 18, 2020. For more of Larry McDonald's charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3hwFEv3. Find more information about Larry McDonald's work at http://www.thebeartrapsreport.com.
Karora Resources knocks out Buffett's Barrick Gold
Warren Buffett made waves last week with a Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) stake in Barrick Gold (ABX). On the same day, INK announced that Barrick is being dropped from the INK CIN Index in the quarterly rebalancing that takes place after the close today. Barrick is being replaced by the smaller Karora Resources (KRR) which is highlighted in today's report. Join the Canadian Insider Club Ultra to get this report, all future INK morning reports and access to all INK Ultra Money videos including Real Vision.
Fleckenstein and Rule: Miners Are a Call on Unintended Fed Policy
Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital, sits down with Rick Rule, president and CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc., to talk about the macro drivers of the recent precious metals bull market and what to look for when investing in miners. Using their decades of experience in the industry, Rule and Fleckenstein explain why regardless of a specific price target and because precious metals investments as a percentage of the total market for savings and investments is far below the average over the past 50 years, reversion to the mean has precious metals exposed investments poised to march higher. Rule provides his explanation as to why Warren Buffet, who has called gold a pet rock in the past, has recently allocated a portion of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio in Barrick Gold Corporation. Fleckenstein argues that there is a problem with using traditional NAV-based analysis and provides viewers with strategies to find hidden value when analyzing miners and to avoid the pitfalls that many investors fall victim to when investing in the space. Filmed on August 19, 2020.
Karora Resources knocks out Buffett's Barrick Gold
Warren Buffett made waves last week with a Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) stake in Barrick Gold (ABX). On the same day, INK announced that Barrick is being dropped from the INK CIN Index in the quarterly rebalancing that takes place after the close today. Barrick is being replaced by the smaller Karora Resources (KRR) which is highlighted in today's report.
The Unwinding: Gold, The Credit Cycle, and the Monetary System
History is often overlooked and misunderstood, especially financial history. Dan Oliver of Myrmikan Capital, LLC and Simon Mikhailovich, managing director of The Bullion Reserve, explain the role of gold and the credit cycle through history, comparing today to the credit crises that have occurred roughly every 100 years since the 1720's – the Mississippi Bubble in France, Europe's reckoning with a post-Napoleon order in the 1820's, and the post-World War I calamities of the 1920's and 1930's. Using history to set the table for their discussion of gold, central banking, and the credit cycle, Dan and Simon break down how these forces push the monetary system down the dangerous "goat path" towards unwinding. Despite the seemingly dour circumstances, Oliver and Mikhailovich explain why there is still hope for wealth preservation and even incredible returns for those investors who choose not to continue down the "goat path." Filmed on August 18, 2020.
David Samra, Portfolio Manager of Artisan Partners’ International Value Fund, speaks with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison about the subtle art of value investing. Samra, who defines value investing simply as buying something well below its intrinsic value, shares the four criteria he and his fund use when looking at stocks: undervaluation, quality, financial strength and management alignment. He and Ed also discuss how investors can avoid the pitfalls of so-called "value-traps" – i.e. when a stock is cheap because there’s a reason it's cheap. Lastly, Samra analyzes two companies that are in his fund’s portfolio: ABB and Compass Group PLC. Filmed on August 3, 2020.
The neoliberal model of free trade, open borders, and liberalized capital flows is under assault. Traditional economic models with rational agents and efficient markets don't accord with reality, and people are starting to notice. Even recent advances in behavioral economics have failed to capture this disconnect. Mark Blyth, William R. Rhodes Professor of International Economics at Brown University, and Eric Lonergan, macro hedge fund manager at M&G Investments, explore and seek to resolve these conflicts in their new book, "Angrynomics." Blyth and Lonergan examine how the outsourcing of economic management to grey-suited bureaucrats is fomenting a populist backlash that is redrawing political battle lines and molding the destiny of different asset classes in ways few fully grasp. They analyze the recent largesse of central banks as a sort of asymmetric put-option which rewards those who hold assets and punishes those who don't. Blyth and Lonergan also explore potential solutions, which include dual interest rates, citizens' wealth fund, and - yes - even helicopter money. Filmed on July 8, 2020.
The Wirecard Debacle: Shades of Enron and WorldCom
Individual market cycles, and particularly their crescendos and finales, have unique characteristics that we use to categorize and differentiate them from other past cycles – the dotcom bubble, the housing crisis, and now, potentially the COVID crisis. One thing that they all have in common, though, is the failure of major companies from either mismanagement or fraud. In this interview, Roddy Boyd of the Foundation for Financial Journalism and Real Vision’s Ed Harrison examine financial impropriety through the lens of Wirecard, the German mobile payments company that has transitioned from a source of German pride to an embarrassment, exposing shoddy work by the lawyers, auditors and regulators tasked with investigating potential frauds and protecting the public. Whether Wirecard is in fact a fraud seems to be clearer with every passing day, but many questions still remain – will the bad actors both inside and outside the company be held accountable, will the company go belly up or be saved by governments increasingly willing to protect companies that are “too big to fail”, and will Wirecard be another shining example of the malfeasance and mismanagement that always seems to be exposed at the end of a market cycle? Filmed on June 24, 2020.
David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research joins Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, to break down his view of the economy, financial markets, and their direction over the next six to eighteen months. Rosenberg notes the success of working from home and the negative implications it has for commercial real estate – both residential and office. He points to internet infrastructure, consumer staples, healthcare, and big tech as sectors that are poised to do well over the next year and predicts that elevated personal savings rates, a reduction in capital expenditures, and a credit downgrade cycle will contribute to weaker GDP numbers for 2020. He argues that the Fed has enabled the zombification of the corporate sector though artificially low interest rates, and Rosenberg and Harrison consider whether the actions of the Fed could trigger insolvency and liquidity crises by suppressing price discovery in the market. Rosenberg also touches on Japan, Canada, and gold in the context of COVID-19 and monetary policy responses to the pandemic. Filmed on June 23, 2020. To register for Rosenberg Research's free trial, visit https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/clients/register.
We are now more than a decade past the GFC, and Fannie Mae is finally exiting conservatorship – a legal concept where a guardian oversees the finances of an individual or company. Whitney Tilson, founder and CEO of Empire Financial Research, and Gabriella Heffesse, chief operating officer of ACG Analytics, take a deep-dive into Fannie Mae, the mortgage giant that securitizes just under half of all mortgages in the United States. They analyze the investment opportunity Fannie Mae presents, comparing the junior preferred shares to the common tier equity, and the different risk/reward proposition each level of the capital stack offers. Tilson and Heffesse review the history of Fannie Mae, from its being placed into conservatorship to the "net worth sweep" to the ongoing attempts to implement a "recap and release" plan. In addition, this serves as a timely case study on the multi-year playbook for government bailouts and conservatorship for national champion companies that could once again show up in Washington with outstretched hands and empty pockets. Filmed on June 10, 2020.
Stephen Clapham, founder of Behind the Balance Sheet, analyzes the unique challenges that companies worldwide are facing during the ongoing pandemic. Using forensic accounting, Clapham surveys the financial landscape to identify risks and opportunities. He argues that the crisis will force companies to prioritize shoring up their balance sheet, and that as a result, stock buybacks will be diminished and return on equity across various sectors will suffer. Clapham reviews how companies have been juicing their earnings with "adjusted" figures, and he argues that this pandemic is a catalyst for a "great reset" in which executives use the ongoing crisis as an excuse to accurately tally their companies' earnings. Across a longer time horizon, Clapham expects inflationary pressures to mount as central banks continue to monetize debt and as major players in consolidated industries – such as hospitality, retail, and airlines – gain pricing power. Find out more about Stephen Clapham's work at https://www.behindthebalancesheet.com/. Filmed on May 27, 2020.
Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management shares with Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal his investing framework. He and Raoul explore just how late we are in the credit cycle and look at risks and opportunities that lie ahead. Marks discusses the principles that made him one of the world's greatest investors – discipline, contrarianism, and selectivity – and reflects how these principles serve as guiding stars during this time of unprecedented uncertainty. Marks' specialty is putting capital to work when others have lost their nerve – or, as he describes it, "to catch falling knives" – and he shares with Raoul how he plans on identifying and selecting value at a time when the Fed’s recent actions have clouded the investment landscape by artificially distorting security prices. Filmed on May 12, 2020.