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The major U.S. equity indexes edged into positive territory after opening in the red, even as a measure of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 53 in June from 56.1 in May, a two-year low, and the latest update to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow gauge came in at negative 2.1% on an annualized basis. Not only is a U.S. recession more likely than a soft landing; we may already be in one. “I’m keeping an open mind, and if we do have a recession it will produce an even more powerful rally, as bull markets are born out of recessions," says Mark Ritchie II. Ritchie II, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about financial markets, the global economy, and capital preservation. We also hear from Mark Minervini about diversified portfolios in a bear market versus a bull market. And we drop in on an exclusive interview between Ash and CEO Mark Lamb about CoinFLEX’s struggle for survival amid the crypto downturn. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AeGKaR. Watch the full conversation featuring Mark Minervini, Jared Dillian, and Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3OAxAcR. Watch Ash’s interview with Mark Lamb here: https://rvtv.io/3yw0ghH.
Shortcut: The Glowing Promise of the Uranium Trade
We’ve compiled key takes from Maggie Lake’s conversation with Nick Lawson, CEO of advisory firm Ocean Wall about the potential comeback for uranium and how to position for it.
Jun 29, 2022
An EU Lawmaker Shares Her Notes on Crypto Regulation
Regulating a complex ecosystem like cryptocurrency involves questions of status within the existing financial and monetary infrastructure, market stability, and state sovereignty. Eva Kaili, the Vice-President of the European Parliament, joins Michael Nicoletos, a macro investor, for an in-depth conversation about the framework for regulation and oversight of cryptocurrency in the European Union. Among issues left to be resolved are whether to include NFTs in the proposed rules; how to regulate stablecoins; the supervision of large crypto-asset service providers; anti-money laundering clauses; and the environmental impact of blockchain technology. Recorded on June 24, 2022.
What Does Commodity Price Action Tell Us About the Economy?
The S&P 500 is down nearly 18% year to date, its worst first-half performance since 1970. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in 16 months in June, as inflation continues to extract its due. And Google searches for "recession" have reached a new high, according to Andreas Steno Larsen. “Typically,” he adds, “that only happens during actual recessions. Are we already in one, or is the risk overstated by now?” The fear of slowing growth now supplanting the fear of inflation, markets have fresh fuel to reprice assets across the risk spectrum. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Ash Bennington to talk about inflation, recession, and recent price action, including the particular pressure on convertible bonds. We also hear from Michael Gayed about an emerging counter-trend trade based on a correction for crude oil and commodities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3u7AgGV. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Gayed here: https://rvtv.io/3nnJefp.
Storm clouds are gathering, with rampant inflation driving a historic monetary tightening cycle that threatens economic growth while war rages in Eastern Europe. Are we now on course for a deflationary bust? Doubts about its abilities abound. But investors should be prepared for the outside possibility that the Federal Reserve nails the landing, says Michael Gayed. With cracks starting to show in the commodities market, the author of The Lead-Lag Report expresses some doubts about the sector, warning of the near-religious fervor that fuels its booms. Gayed, the chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, shares his brand of shrewd, contrarian perspectives with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen. Amid tempests like these, keeping your ship steady and sailing in the right direction is a challenge. But the business cycle is inevitable. And it’s nearly impossible to time it perfectly. Recorded on June 24, 2022.
Russia defaulted on its external debt for the first time in more than a century, a technical breach brought about by historic sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s war-making machine. Equity indexes turned lower in afternoon trade following last week’s big rally but have basically shrugged off this development. Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vison’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about broader implications of Russia’s default on the global bond and energy markets. Boockvar and Larsen also discuss recent economic data and when we might expect to start seeing negative monthly prints in key indicators such as durable goods orders and retail sales. We also hear from Francis Gannon about why it may take a while for a market bottom to form. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yns8V6. Watch the full interview featuring Francis Gannon here: ttps://rvtv.io/3QUWOnV.
INK Ultra Money Free: Bear market buying. Canadian resource and financial insiders take the other side of the Powell pullback. If you are not a member, visit our Discord channel to download this week's set of INK morning reports for free. Invite link: https://discord.gg/Mn4dgVsxCt
Since the 1930s, small-cap stocks have outperformed inflation in every single decade. It’s the only asset class to do so. Now, with inflation giving rise to a new interest-rate regime, small-caps could offer investors refuge and opportunity in these difficult and volatile markets, according to Francis Gannon. Gannon is co-chief investment officer of Royce Investment Partners, a firm that’s specialized in small-cap investing since the early 1970s. In conversation with Real Vision’s Maggie Lake, Gannon explains what investors need to know about this asset class and how small-cap stocks fit investor portfolios amid an economic slowdown. Recorded on June 22, 2022.
All three major U.S. equity indexes were up more than 2% heading into Friday’s close, even as the University of Michigan’s reading of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June. As its inflation-fighting efforts threaten growth, the Federal Reserve released results of its periodic “stress tests” showing that all subject banks passed. “Bear in mind,” tweeted Jim Bianco, “the Fed does NOT test for a massive policy error leading to soaring interest rates and huge losses. In other words, these tests, created and conducted by the Fed, assume the Fed never makes a mistake.” Bianco, the founder and president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about markets, the economy, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. We also hear from Eric Johnston about the market’s perception of the U.S. central bank and its ability to meet its own targets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yirRmq. Watch the full conversation featuring Eric Johnston and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3bpLTT0.
Ignore short-term, headline-driven rallies. According to Eric Johnston, the S&P 500 is headed to the low 3,000s during the next six months. And the Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset at Cantor Fitzgerald says investors must brace for lower equity returns over all time horizons, short-, medium-, and long-term. In conversation with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen, Johnston argues that the era of accommodative U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is over, with no more easy money for Wall Street from the Federal Reserve or handouts for Main Street from Congress. The narrative around inflation will change quickly because “the Fed is significantly at risk of overshooting.” Johnston makes the case that rapidly slowing inflation will give a boost to bonds in the medium to long term, and he also advocates for Chinese equities. Recorded on June 17, 2022.
Jun 23, 2022
What To Expect From the Ethereum Merge
Ethereum is nearing the end of a multi-year initiative to overhaul its consensus mechanism. But seamlessly migrating an operating protocol from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) is not a simple task. Galaxy Digital's Christine Kim joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to explain how developers plan to bring PoS to Ethereum via a “merge” of Ethereum's Mainnet and the Beacon Chain. Challenges and risks attend this kind of transition. But there are also many advantages, such as improved scalability and less centralization. What's next for Ethereum as we enter into a new era? Christine and Ash also talk about the bear market’s impact on the crypto ecosystem and Lido's staked ETH tokens (stETH). Recorded on June 17, 2022.