Real Vision: The Interview

The smartest minds in finance sit down for incredibly deep-diving discussions. Peer-to-peer conversations between the rock stars of the financial world.
Real Vision Jun 30, 2022
The Fed Has Chosen Its Horn
Jerome Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s steadfast commitment to raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet. But investors are increasingly skeptical the central bank can stay the course in the face of a slowing economy. Hari Krishnan, the head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital Management, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the Scylla of inflation, the Charybdis of recession, and the possibility the Fed has no way out of this dilemma. Krishnan notes that there are critical time-lag differentials between Fed actions to control inflation and Fed actions to stimulate growth. And that makes a sharper economic downturn more likely, even with a pause in the Fed’s tightening program, as fed funds futures markets are currently signaling. Recorded on June 27, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 29, 2022
Shortcut: The Glowing Promise of the Uranium Trade
We’ve compiled key takes from Maggie Lake’s conversation with Nick Lawson, CEO of advisory firm Ocean Wall about the potential comeback for uranium and how to position for it.
Real Vision Jun 28, 2022
It's All About the Business Cycle
Storm clouds are gathering, with rampant inflation driving a historic monetary tightening cycle that threatens economic growth while war rages in Eastern Europe. Are we now on course for a deflationary bust? Doubts about its abilities abound. But investors should be prepared for the outside possibility that the Federal Reserve nails the landing, says Michael Gayed. With cracks starting to show in the commodities market, the author of The Lead-Lag Report expresses some doubts about the sector, warning of the near-religious fervor that fuels its booms. Gayed, the chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, shares his brand of shrewd, contrarian perspectives with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen. Amid tempests like these, keeping your ship steady and sailing in the right direction is a challenge. But the business cycle is inevitable. And it’s nearly impossible to time it perfectly. Recorded on June 24, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 27, 2022
Small-Caps: The Forgotten Asset Class
Since the 1930s, small-cap stocks have outperformed inflation in every single decade. It’s the only asset class to do so. Now, with inflation giving rise to a new interest-rate regime, small-caps could offer investors refuge and opportunity in these difficult and volatile markets, according to Francis Gannon. Gannon is co-chief investment officer of Royce Investment Partners, a firm that’s specialized in small-cap investing since the early 1970s. In conversation with Real Vision’s Maggie Lake, Gannon explains what investors need to know about this asset class and how small-cap stocks fit investor portfolios amid an economic slowdown. Recorded on June 22, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 24, 2022
This Is the Decade of the Bear
Ignore short-term, headline-driven rallies. According to Eric Johnston, the S&P 500 is headed to the low 3,000s during the next six months. And the Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset at Cantor Fitzgerald says investors must brace for lower equity returns over all time horizons, short-, medium-, and long-term. In conversation with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen, Johnston argues that the era of accommodative U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is over, with no more easy money for Wall Street from the Federal Reserve or handouts for Main Street from Congress. The narrative around inflation will change quickly because “the Fed is significantly at risk of overshooting.” Johnston makes the case that rapidly slowing inflation will give a boost to bonds in the medium to long term, and he also advocates for Chinese equities. Recorded on June 17, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 22, 2022
Shortcut: Prepare Your Portfolio for a Treacherous Stretch
Enjoy a selection of thought-provoking segments from Mikael Sarwe’s discussion with Andreas Steno Larsen on how to invest amid persistent inflation, higher rates, and slower growth. Watch the full interview here:
Real Vision Jun 21, 2022
The Glowing Promise of the Uranium Trade
It’s a renaissance. It’s the dawning of a new age. It’s the stuff inside the briefcase in “Pulp Fiction.” However you phrase it, uranium is, again, a highly sought-after commodity. Political power brokers all over the world, feeling the heat at home as war in Eastern Europe continues to constrain global fossil fuel supplies, are recognizing nuclear’s ability to satisfy baseload energy demand on a relatively clean basis. Also, uranium supply and production is limited right now. These are the makings of a generational wealth-creation opportunity, as Ocean Wall CEO Nick Lawson explains to Real Vision’s Maggie Lake. Nick and Maggie talk about nuclear power’s history, including the high-profile accidents. But Vladimir Putin’s weaponization of energy commodities threatens even wider, longer-lasting damage. It’s going to take discipline and patience. But the uranium trade has a new glow, and Nick has the scoop on how to build a position. Recorded on June 15, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 20, 2022
Will It All Add Up To a Global Recession?
Most central banks are moving aggressively to neutralize runaway inflation, a “bogey” world leaders must eliminate. As Michael Howell points out, though, “Other world economies are already in recession," and the U.S. will quickly follow suit. In conversation with Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, Howell, the CEO of Crossborder Capital, paints a bleak picture. “The next six months are going to be pretty ugly” as liquidity conditions continue to deteriorate and economic data continue to disappoint. Michael and Jared also talk about why Federal Reserve policy probably won't change much until early 2023, what's made the Japanese yen weaken so drastically, and how the European Central Bank’s recent moves reintroduce “fragmentation” risk for the European Union. Recorded on June 13, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 16, 2022
Why Bear Markets Are Great Buying Opportunities
Hedging your portfolio is like wearing your seat belt or engaging other safety features in your car, according to Steven Van Metre, who notes that common thread here is “survival.” If you can come out the other side of a bear market or an automobile accident OK, you’ve won. Surviving means the opportunity to buy solid assets at discounted prices. And Van Metre, the founder and president of Van Metre Financial, believes game-changing opportunities are being made right now, as investors are forced to sell to raise cash. In conversation with Harry Melandri, advisor at MI2 Partners, Van Metre singles out the bond market for particular interest right now, with recession on the horizon. He and Melandri also talk about what we should expect as the Federal Reserve pursues its monetary tightening program, including the implications of stagflation and deflation. Recorded on June 7, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 15, 2022
Shortcut: Inflation Is Hotter Than It's Ever Been
David Rosenberg shares his thoughts on inflation, interest rates, and recession and his top strategies for investors in the current environment in a fiery discussion with Maggie Lake. Sign up for Real Vision Plus to watch the entire interview here:
Real Vision Jun 14, 2022
Prepare Your Portfolio for a Treacherous Stretch
Whether central banks can control inflation without crashing the global economy is a question increasingly weighing on investors’ minds. Mikael Sarwe says a cyclical slowdown could very well devolve into recession and that hawkish monetary policy is unlikely to halt inflation. Sarwe, head of macro allocation strategy at Nordea, walks Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen through a technical evaluation of the inflation crisis. As it ripples across the system, investors should look to bonds and high-dividend equities to defend their portfolios, Sarwe posits. Recorded June 9, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 13, 2022
Tales From the Trading Desk
Dave Floyd describes himself as someone whose “temperament and personality is still wired toward short-term price movements.” In other words, he’s a trader. Floyd, the founder of Aspen Trading Group, joins Jared Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to explain what that title means to him. Dave and Jared swap tales from trading desks of the mid-1990s through the 2000s, sharing lessons along the way about specializing in certain asset classes, establishing discipline, and developing a mentality of success. Recorded on June 8, 2022.