Why China Will Avoid Crisis by Any Means Necessary
After years living abroad in China and Vietnam, professor Chris Balding has returned to the U.S. because of concerns for his safety due to his role in exposing the data collection operations of Shenzen Zhenhua Data Technology. In this interview with Michael Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Balding lays out the initial findings from his expository research and updates viewers on the current state of affairs in China. Together they examine geopolitical tensions between China and the rest of Asia as well as China’s current relationship status with Europe and Russia. They also help viewers make sense of what is happening on the Chinese homefront and the macro factors driving capital flows into the country. Filmed on September 15, 2020. More information about the Chinese data gathering operation described in the interview can be found here: https://rvtv.io/33Cmxd7 and https://rvtv.io/3ktuDvg
Private Credit and the Death Knell of the 60/40 Portfolio
Udayan Mitra, former head of investments at Altera Investments, joins Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss the state of fixed income investing in a world with near-zero interest rates. Mitra argues that yield hunger will force investors further into alternative credit strategies. Mitra lays out the various players in this space – private equity and credit funds, direct lending firms, as well as special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). Mitra then tells Harrison about how higher yields come at the price of reduced liquidity, and the pair weigh this trade-off. Lastly, Mitra shares specific opportunities and risks he sees in this space. Filmed on September 15, 2020.
Are bonds still effective portfolio diversifiers? What can the history of asset-backed securities tell us about their future? These are questions that Tom Rutledge, fixed income strategist at Magnetar Capital, explores alongside Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison. Rutledge outlines the myriad array of problems facing fixed-income investors -- from liquidity constraints to finding yield pick-ups as yields continue to decline. He then describes specific opportunities he sees in industries ranging from hospitality to tech. Filmed on September 3, 2020. Click here for Rutledge’s report, “Specialty Finance: An Investor’s History”: https://rvtv.io/2Rt9jtE
Peter Borish, president of Computer Trading Corporation and long-time partner of Paul Tudor Jones, sits down with former Point72 head performance coach, Dr. Gio Valiante, to get at the heart of what it takes to not only succeed in the business of trading, but to thrive and excel. Since his storied early career successfully calling and the profiting from the 1987 crash and trading alongside PTJ, Borish has flourished mentoring and developing new trading talent. Together these extremely successful coaches put forward their lists of the top traits and behaviors that keep popping in the best traders they work with. Borish also comments on the importance of philanthropy and his own work with Robin Hood and argues that in these unprecedented times, quants and computers are in for a rude awakening as massive paradigm shifts have thrown decades of macro data and back testing out the window. Filmed on September 10, 2020.
Michael Nicoletos, CIO and co-founder of Appletree Capital, is joined by John Floyd, head of macro strategies at Record Currency Management, to analyze the mounting pressures on the Turkish Lira as well as other emerging market (EM) currencies. Floyd breaks down his bearish thesis on the Turkish Lira (TRY), citing Turkey's deeply negative real rates, dwindling FX reserves, and a banking sector deeply indebted to foreign creditors on a dollar- or euro-denominated basis. Floyd and Nicoletos then discuss the knock-on effects of a Turkish Lira collapse as so many European banks (especially Spanish ones) are heavily exposed to Turkey. Lastly, Floyd shares with Nicoletos the various trades to express this view. Filmed on September 9, 2020. For John Floyd's report, click here: https://rvtv.io/3bMJSMN
James Altucher, author and former hedge-fund manager, speaks to Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, about his recent head-turning op-ed, “NYC is Dead Forever – Here’s Why.” James lays out his thesis in detail, arguing that a work-from-home economy is a death-knell for everything that is quintessentially “New York” -- from hot dog stands to Broadway shows. James and Ash discuss the consequences on commercial real estate as well as how this scenario might affect other asset classes. They explore the worst-case scenario and the potential silver linings. Filmed on September 2nd, 2020.
Marc Cohodes is well known as a confident and vocal short-seller willing to fight harder and dig deeper into a company than anyone else in the business. But when he sees the buying opportunity of a lifetime, he’s just as willing to get to work on the long side and spread the good news. In this interview with Raoul Pal, Cohodes explains why the combination of a booming e-commerce business, the massive call option of tokenization, and the tZERO blockchain network have him extremely bullish on Overstock even after riding the stock from $3 to $90 in its most recent run. As well, they discuss Marc’s other “all in” call on Camping World, a company that, much like Overstock, has him licking his chops and continuing to buy alongside insiders who have not stepped out of the market in spite of the general frothiness that abounds. Cohodes also updates viewers on the personal and emotional rollercoaster that has been his MiMedx short. Filmed on September 1, 2020.
If you haven’t been living under a rock, you’ve probably heard the narrative that cities are dead and that white collar workers, now unburdened by the ability to work from home, are fleeing to the suburbs as fast as they can. Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at Housing Wire, explains to Real Vision’s Ash Bennington why it is nothing more than an interesting narrative. He goes on to add that, aside from a few pockets in New York and San Francisco, the relative strength in the suburban housing market is being driven by the only factors that matter -- demographics and mortgage rates. Bennington and Mohtashami also drill down on the relationship between bond yields and mortgage rates and the knock-on effects into housing demand that you could see depending on different scenarios for those rates. Filmed on August 26, 2020.
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, is joined by Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial to discuss the most pressing issues on the macro horizon. After exploring whether quantitative easing (QE) and low rates are inflationary or deflationary, Johnson and Van Metre take a deep dive into the plumbing of the Treasury market and specifically the operations of the Fed’s FOMC. Van Metre explains why he believes the Fed’s policies have actually caused banks to tighten their lending standards rather than loosen them as the Fed intended. The pair then take a look at swap lines and the Eurodollar funding market as well as the effect a credit contraction would have on the U.S. dollar. Lastly, Van Metre talks about his Real Vision journey and how the knowledge he’s gained has helped him as an investor as well as a financial advisor. Filmed on August 24, 2020. For additional charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3gARHG7
COVID-19: The World's Crash Course in Data Analysis and Modeling
For much of the population, analysis and projections of COVID-19 cases, mortality, and the associated policy response have brought forward the importance of statistical analysis and modeling techniques that many have never learned and, at best, probably haven't used since long past college years. This has resulted in heated debate, politicization, and huge differences in policy decisions and attitudes across jurisdictions. In this Interview, Christina Ramirez, professor of biostatistics at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, sits down with Michael Green of Logica Capital Advisors to help viewers understand the constantly evolving story that the data is telling. Together, they examine the quality of the available data sets, how the consequences of lockdowns have born themselves out in other data like reports of child abuse, and how data indicates that as our knowledge and experience has grown, so too has our ability to combat the pandemic. Viewers can find more info about Christina Ramirez's work and access her updated data sets and charts here: https://github.com/cmramirez/Covid-plots. Filmed on August 19, 2020.
What happens when the monetary and fiscal engines run too hot? This is the question that Larry McDonald, New York Times bestselling author and founder of the Bear Traps Report, explores with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal. McDonald and Pal start by analyzing the valuations of high-flying tech stocks and discuss whether they will continue to soar or make an early landing. The pair then examine in detail the remarkable price action seen over the past few months in commodities such as precious metals, lumber, and natural gas. McDonald compiles this appreciation as evidence to explore his thesis that excessive stimulus could serve as a “cobra effect” to augur a hyperinflationary economic collapse. Filmed on August 18, 2020. For more of Larry McDonald’s charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3hwFEv3
There will always be debate surrounding what is the best way to gain exposure to precious metals. Should you buy gold miners, an ETF, maybe trade futures? It can all seem very complicated, but what if you want to do it the way it has been done for centuries -- owning physical metal with your name on it stored in a vault in a secure location? Mark Yaxley, general manager at Strategic Wealth Preservation (SWP), sits down with friend and client Raoul Pal to answer that very question and discuss how SWP has made it easy to buy, sell, and store precious metals in the Cayman Islands in a safe, legal, and affordable way for countless clients from all over the world. Together, they also discuss the state of the physical gold market, Mark and Raoul’s outlooks for the asset class, differences between coins and bars from assorted global producers, and the types of clients Mark is seeing step into the physical market at this exciting time for precious metals. Filmed on August 19, 2020. To find out more about SWP or open a physical metals account, go to www.swpcayman.com/realvision.