Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Cornerstone Macro, returns to Real Vision to articulate his stock market outlook for 2020. Noting ultra-low interest rates, narrow credit spreads, and a record-low level of cyclicality in the S&P 500, Kantrowitz argues that while the stock market is certainly expensive, it may not necessarily be overvalued. He recommends a balanced approach that favors value stocks over growth, cyclical over non-cyclical, and domestic over foreign. Filmed on January 21, 2020 in New York.
The Best Laid Plans: Understanding Elizabeth Warren's Economics
David Bahnsen, founder and CIO of The Bahnsen Group, takes a deep dive into the economic portfolio of Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren. Bahnsen unpacks the potential inconsistencies and contradictions of Warren's plan — with a particular focus on the consequences of a wealth tax. Filmed on January 13, 2020 in New York.
Rob West, founder of Thunder Said Energy – an energy consulting firm, understands that the total decarbonization of the energy industry will be fueled by political attitudes around the world over the next few decades. However, West argues that proponents of ESG investing fail to understand that this transition will involve massive investment in fossil fuels and cooperation with villainized oil majors. He explains his framework for total decarbonization of the energy industry by 2050, and highlights the new technologies and investment vehicles that will be necessary to drive the transition. Filmed on October 18, 2019 in New York.
Will the underlying dynamics of the oil market be the next black swan? Mark Gordon, CIO of the Ascent Oil Fund, joins Real Vision to unpack his data-driven view on why the rising tide of scarcity in oil markets could be the trigger for the next global recession. Gordon's thesis touches on the shale markets, the risks posed by electric vehicles, his outlook for production and exploration stocks, and the recent unrest in Iran and the Middle East. Filmed on January 3, 2020 in New York.
Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, returns to Real Vision in 2020 with a bold bet on the bond market and reviews where he thinks yields are headed next. In this interview with Justine Underhill, Greer examines the current macro environment, highlights emerging inflationary signals, and discusses how traders should position for a bear-steepener in 2020. He also notes a specific ETF – $IEF – to play the thesis and lays out the trade’s risk/reward parameters. Filmed on January 8, 2019.
Stephen Auth, chief investment officer of Federated Investors and author of "The Missionary of Wall Street," sits down with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to explain why he's still bullish on stocks. He estimates that, with low interest rates and high corporate earnings, the S&P 500 still has room to run, with particular opportunities in energy and healthcare. Auth argues, in a secular bull market, a drawdown is a signal to buy rather than sell. Other topics include: inflation, ISM manufacturing data, and the importance of spirituality. Filmed on December 19, 2019, in New York.
Down the A.I. Rabbit Hole: Hedge Funds, Wall St, & Machine Learning
Artificial intelligence and machine learning are poised to "eat the world" — but how, exactly, do they work together on Wall Street to make money for traders? NYU business professor, data scientist, and hedge fund manager Vasant Dhar sits down with fellow hedge fund manager and mathematician Hari Krishnan to take a deep dive into the cutting edge where technology meets markets. Filmed on December 9, 2019 in New York.
Famed economist Dr. Nouriel Roubini sits down with Real Vision's Ash Bennington to discuss the outlook for markets and the global economy in 2020 — including his prescient insight on the risks of war with Iran and the potential for a worldwide energy shock caused by conflict in the Middle East. Roubini also explores global growth, US equities & fixed income, The Fed and global central banks, and the tail risks of China trade, politics, and AI. Filmed on December 10, 2019 in New York.
Jeff Meyers of Cobia Capital is back to discuss a company he has held since the inception of his fund in 2008 — Silicom Ltd. The stock has been beaten up over the past two years after a major deal with IBM fell through in 2018. Now, investors are hesitant to price in revenues from product roll-outs that have already been announced. Meyers explains why the failure of the IBM deal was the exception, not the rule, and that investors have an opportunity to invest before revenues increase in 2020 and 2021. Filmed on January 2, 2020 in New York.
Dr. William Lazonick, co-founder and president of The Academic-Industry Research Network, sits down with Real Vision's Max Wiethe to dissect the evolution of the stock market and the modern American economic system. Citing Boeing as an example, he contends that the stock market is being used to loot previously innovative corporations as insiders and outsiders alike are incentivized to push stock prices higher. He also argues that American competitiveness is being sapped as companies prioritize stock buybacks over investing in research and development, building new infrastructure, and paying off debt. Lazonick explains how this focus on short-term profits has led to unstable employment, sagging productivity growth and a loss of international competitiveness. Filmed on December 6, 2019 in New York.