Innovation

This channel has a focus on stories that involve companies and people that are trying to either disrupt markets or accelerate growth in established industries.

Real Vision Apr 16, 2021
The Exponential Age: Crypto's Fast and Furious Rise
Raoul Pal returns in his role as the founder of Global Macro Investor to update Real Vision members on the exponentially large role crypto is playing within his macro framework. Raoul argues that crypto is a "black hole" that is sucking in all of the world's talent and value at a speed that no one can comprehend and that its capacity to generate phenomenal returns for investors is not temporary but rather part of a durable long-term trend that is at the vanguard of what he calls "The Exponential Age." Raoul contends that since central banks have suppressed the volatility of currencies and interest rates, large "macro" on heavy swings in these variables no longer offer the opportunity they once did and that it is in the world of crypto where these outsized returns can be found. Filmed on April 10, 2021. Key learnings: Raoul sees the migration of value to the digital world as an exponential trend that offers opportunities for investment return that are no longer possible in traditional capital markets
Real Vision Apr 14, 2021
Inflation Fake Outs, Oil Update, and Entrenched Interests as a Play on Fiscal
Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, returns to Real Vision to discuss why he thinks inflation fears are perhaps pre-mature but that fiscal stimulus and the corresponding household net worth will play out in consumer spending and inflation around two quarters out. Even if we get inflation, Pies argues that inflation will have to be a lot higher for longer before it affects Fed policy. The mixed signals being sent from crude oil also factor in as a red flag for inflation because rising crude oil prices are a leading indicator of inflation. Warren is still positive on the reopening but believes many of the reopening stocks have repriced accordingly. He likes "entrenched interests" that already have deep ties to Washington D.C. to play increased fiscal. Filmed on April 12, 2021. Key Learnings: Outlooks for higher inflation and crude oil prices are potentially pre-mature. The reopening is going strong but reopening assets have repriced accordingly. Entrenched interests with deep histories of doing business with the federal government are Warren’s play on increased fiscal spending.
Real Vision Apr 13, 2021
Dan Suzuki: A Regime Shift in the Investment Cycle
Dan Suzuki, Deputy CIO at Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a deep dive re-evaluation of portfolio asset allocations as the global economy is poised to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic economic shutdown. Suzuki suggests that what worked in the last decade – growth over value, U.S. exposure over international, large cap stocks over small cap, and investing in tech dominated companies – may not work in the coming cycle, and such allocations need to be rotated. Filmed April 7, 2021. Key Learnings: Coming out of the economic shutdowns, the market is starting to price in a much faster tightening cycle than the Fed is considering, spurring the need to re-analyze portfolio allocations. A suggested portfolio rotation includes more international exposure over U.S., small cap over large cap and mega cap companies, and a smaller allocation to technology and high-growth sectors.
Real Vision Apr 12, 2021
Jens Nordvig: The Death of Fixed Income
Danish-born economist Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data, a data and analytics firm for institutional investors that specializes in foreign exchange markets and macroeconomic policy, joins Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal for a deep-dive conversation on the global economic outlook; the impact of the vaccine rollout on the U.S., Europe and emerging markets; and the likelihood of multi-year fiscal stimulus. Nordvig sees monetary policy frameworks evolving in ways that are unfriendly toward bonds, like Average Inflation Targeting (AIT), causing a fundamental rethinking among investors for owning fixed income assets. Filmed April 7, 2020. Key Learnings: A multi-decade bull market in fixed income lasted longer than many expected due to negative interest rate policy, and the COVID shock made central banks across the globe max out monetary policy. Interest rates are currently unattractive to many kinds of investors, and the economic outlook is such that risk assets look attractive, including cryptocurrency. Follow @jnordvig @ExanteData. Visit Exante Data (https://www.exantedata.com/).
Real Vision Apr 12, 2021
Jens Nordvig: The Death of Fixed Income
Danish-born economist Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data, a data and analytics firm for institutional investors that specializes in foreign exchange markets and macroeconomic policy, joins Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal for a deep-dive conversation on the global economic outlook; the impact of the vaccine rollout on the U.S., Europe and emerging markets; and the likelihood of multi-year fiscal stimulus. Nordvig sees monetary policy frameworks evolving in ways that are unfriendly toward bonds, like Average Inflation Targeting (AIT), causing a fundamental rethinking among investors for owning fixed income assets. Filmed April 7, 2020. Key Learnings: A multi-decade bull market in fixed income lasted longer than many expected due to negative interest rate policy, and the COVID shock made central banks across the globe max out monetary policy. Interest rates are currently unattractive to many kinds of investors, and the economic outlook is such that risk assets look attractive, including cryptocurrency. Follow @jnordvig @ExanteData. Visit Exante Data (https://www.exantedata.com/).
Real Vision Apr 08, 2021
Buyer Beware: Are Markets Set Up for a Pullback?
Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to share his insights on the inflationary pressures and drawdown risks he’s observing. Boockvar discusses his take on why weekly jobless claims in the U.S. continue to be high while job openings are also at record highs, highlighting how enhanced unemployment benefits may be competing with wages and how this puts inflationary pressure on labor. He also analyzes Jamie Dimon’s statement of the economic boom running all the way into 2023 and points out that another leg up in rates, a potential tapering by the Fed, and the end of large-scale fiscal spending could all prove to upend that notion. Harrison and Boockvar also explore the potential influence that supply chain disruptions could have on earnings, a corporate tax grab under Biden, and the impact of high margin debt on markets.
Real Vision Apr 08, 2021
The Value vs. Growth Stalemate: SPACs, Rising Yields, and Long/Short in a Post-GME World
Tobias Carlisle, principal and founder of Acquirer's Fund, returns to Real Vision to share his analysis on the "growth vs. value" divergence that has been at the vanguard of 2021's equity price action. Carlisle breaks down what "value" means to him using the classic valuation metrics (price-to-book, price-to-sales, price-to-earnings, etc.) as well as more nuanced factors such as balance sheet strength and quality of earnings. Carlisle analyzes how rising yields impact the value spread and shares specific stocks that his portfolio is long or short on. Key learnings: Carlisle sees the recent surge in value as part of a larger narrowing of the "value spread" relative to growth. He notes that "junkier" value has outperformed quality value, and rather than turning his attention to energy stocks, airlines, and cruiseliners, Carlisle is focusing on quality "Tech 1.0" businesses. On the short-side, Carlisle sees lots of excess in SPACs and software-as-a-service companies that have yet to make a profit.
Real Vision Apr 01, 2021
Clete Willems: How A Rivalry Between China and the U.S. Is Dominating Global Trade
Clete Willems, a former senior member of Trump's trade team and now a current partner at law firm Akin Gump, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a deep-dive conversation about global trade relations. Willems outlines how a rivalry between China and the United States is dominating global trade, geopolitical and national security policy, and how the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated tensions between the two behemoths. He also notes Trump's focus on trade and bilateral trade deficits in dealing with China has been replaced by a focus on foreign policy, geopolitical competition, and national security in the Biden administration. Willems believes this pivot means "values" will move to the center of the rivalry between China and the U.S., making human rights conditions, government control in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and global supply chains all potential flash-points. Filmed March 31, 2021. Key Learnings: While the switch from a trade focus to a foreign policy focus by US leaders may not cause any change in trade negotiations, it will simultaneously heighten tensions and allow the US to "recruit" allies in Europe and elsewhere to counter China. Russia has receded from view as a global strategic rival but remains a potent force because of its military and Europe’s dependence on natural gas. Europe's dependence on trade with China and natural gas from Russia as well as tensions with the US over Digital Services Tax make it an unpredictable force in global trade negotiations. But the poor trade relationship the U.S. has with India makes it the biggest wildcard in global trade policy.
Real Vision Mar 31, 2021
Preston Pysh: Understanding Bitcoin from a Macro Perspective
Preston Pysh, founder of The Investors Podcast Network, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss value and valuation in the context of central bank policy at its limit. Pysh shares his journey from U.S. Army veteran to value investor and Buffettologist to crypto and Bitcoin advocate. As a value investor, he found it hard to continue looking narrowly at 'value' when he had serious doubts about the entire currency regime, given today's aggressive monetary policies. Eventually, that led Pysh to Bitcoin as an alternative store of value—and he believes Bitcoin is going to make markets free and open again. Filmed March 26, 2020. Key Learnings: Pysh explains some valuation metrics of Bitcoin and why he looks at it in four-year cycles given the supply halving schedule, which he calls the quantitative tightening cycle. He highlights that a long-term chart of the price of Bitcoin looks similar to Metcalfe's Law, which he uses as a Bitcoin price projection metric.
Real Vision Mar 30, 2021
Is The Dollar Headed Higher?
Veteran macro investor Michael Nicoletos returns to Real Vision to share the opportunities and risk he sees across a wide array of assets including currencies, equities, interest rates, commodities, and crypto. He shares with Real Vision's Jack Farley his view that central bank balance sheet expansion will likely continue to result in skyrocketing asset inflation and that the United States dollar is poised to benefit from rising interest rates. He argues that emerging markets face serious challenges in this potentially bullish-dollar regime and analyzes the recent chaos in Turkey. He compares the burgeoning fiscal and monetary stimulus in the United States with the shortcomings of the European Union’s efforts to implement fiscal stimulus. Linking macro to crypto, Nicoletos explains his views on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, and several other altcoins. Filmed on March 24, 2021. Key learnings: Nicoletos' view on central bank liquidity leads him to be very bullish on dollar-denominated assets as well as Bitcoin. Since the U.S. stimulus efforts will accelerate economic recovery, Nicoletos sees the U.S. dollar poised to outperform the Euro and the currencies of emerging markets.
Real Vision Mar 26, 2021
Kevin O'Leary: Digging into Mr. Wonderful's Investment Philosophy
Famed investor Kevin O'Leary, aka Shark Tank’s Mr. Wonderful, joins Real Vision’s Raoul Pal to discuss his investment philosophy and why he rebalanced his portfolio to include 70% equities and 30% fixed income. He increased his weighting in gold to 5%, took a position in Bitcoin for the first time, and stresses the importance of ethical mining and why investors need to know where their Bitcoin is mined. When it comes to private market investments, O'Leary looks for direct-to-consumer companies as he has seen a digital pivot in America during the coronavirus pandemic, and he aims to find companies that have figured out social media and customer acquisition costs. Filmed March 22, 2021. Key Learnings: O'Leary builds his own index as chairman of O'Shares ETFs and shares his balance of U.S. and European stocks: O'Shares U.S. Quality Dividend (OUSAX), O'Shares U.S. Small-Cap Quality Dividend ETF (OUSMX), O’Shares Global Internet Giants (OGIGX) and O'Shares Europe Quality Dividend ETF (OEURX). He has studied throughout history how equities provide a bit of protection in the beginning of inflationary times because they have pricing power when
Real Vision Mar 23, 2021
Nick Kokonas: Derivatives Trader Turned Fine Dining Visionary
Nick Kokonas, founder and CEO of Tock, joins Jason Buck, co-founder and CIO of The Mutiny Fund, to share the lessons he has learned on his path from a derivatives trader, to a restauranter, and to a technologist and fine dining innovator. Kokonas recounts his beginnings in finance in Chicago's trading pits, where he witnessed firsthand the perils of selling tail-risk, or extremely out-of-the-money options. Kokonas and Buck exchange outlooks on options trading and "the Greeks," before Buck prompts Kokonas to share how he founded restaurants such as Trio, Roister, and Alinea (the only restaurant in all of Chicago to retain three Michelin stars). Kokonas shares how identifying and solving the multitude of problems that befall the restaurant industry let him to create Tock. Filmed on March 19, 2021. Key learnings: Most restaurants waste a tremendous amount of time and money, and Kokonas uses the skills he gained as an options trader to spot inefficiencies and innovate in common practices such as dropping checks, making reservations, and ordering ingredients.