This starting point leaves no stone unturned in attempting to spot unrecognized political and policy developments that could not only shape markets, but also entire countries and regions. A great starting point for macro and political enthusiasts.
Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, is joined by Bob Treue, founder of Barnegat Fund Management, to put on a clinic of idea generation. Due to its consistently high returns, Treue’s fund is ranked by Bloomberg as the world’s #1 fixed-income arbitrage fund. Treue shares with Hendry his process for consistent success and recounts some several of his grand-slam trades -- from arbitraging the spread between U.S. Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts to relative value plays on the yield curve for U.K gilts. Hugh Hendry can be found on HughHendry.com, on Instagram and Youtube as @hughhendryofficial, as well as on Twitter at @hendry_hugh.
Ben Inker -- Jeremy Grantham's Heir Apparent on the Future of Asset Allocation
Everyone knows Jeremy Grantham as the face of GMO, the behemoth money manager that has become legendary for its work on asset allocation, but Ben Inker, head of asset allocation at GMO since 1998, seems to be next in line for the throne. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Inker helps viewers make sense of the post-COVID investment landscape from the perspective of a major asset allocator. Together they discuss everything from the future of the 60/40 portfolio to bonds as an asset class in this new low rate world. They also dig in to US vs. non-US assets, the trouble with popular ex-post facto explanations for FAANG outperformance and narrative bubbles like Tesla, and why the financial sector can be so difficult to value. Filmed on September 21, 2020.
Reinventing the Monetary System with Decentralized Finance
Alex Saunders, CEO and founder of Nugget’s News, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to explain the reinvention of the monetary system through new crypto payments systems based on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stable coins. He tells Raoul the story of his introduction into the crypto world. Saunders also breaks down the expansion of global e-commerce through the explosive growth of decentralized finance. Filmed on September 15, 2020.
Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, kicks off an exciting two weeks of content by explaining why we are endeavoring to answer the ultimate question, “has everything changed?” As well, Pal switches hats into his role as head of GMI to update viewers on his "unfolding" thesis and his own view on the question, “has everything changed?” He argues that the insolvency phase is being signaled by banks, BBB equities, and bond yields while tech stocks are stubbornly stuck in the hope phase, which has morphed into a dangerous speculation phase. He also runs through his outlook for the roster of major global asset classes and explains why he thinks Bitcoin is “the world’s best trade.” Filmed on September 17, 2020.
Why China Will Avoid Crisis by Any Means Necessary
After years living abroad in China and Vietnam, professor Chris Balding has returned to the U.S. because of concerns for his safety due to his role in exposing the data collection operations of Shenzen Zhenhua Data Technology. In this interview with Michael Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Balding lays out the initial findings from his expository research and updates viewers on the current state of affairs in China. Together they examine geopolitical tensions between China and the rest of Asia as well as China’s current relationship status with Europe and Russia. They also help viewers make sense of what is happening on the Chinese homefront and the macro factors driving capital flows into the country. Filmed on September 15, 2020. More information about the Chinese data gathering operation described in the interview can be found here: https://rvtv.io/33Cmxd7 and https://rvtv.io/3ktuDvg
Juliette Declercq, founder of JDI Research, believes that September is shaping up to be the biggest month of the year for macro. Using her basket of tested macro indicators, Declercq helps viewers make sense of the current macro environment and argues that reflation and the recovery are still very much underway. She also breaks down the potential for a more benign second wave of COVID, her current outlook for both fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a few trades and assets that she likes in the current environment. Filmed on September 11, 2020.
Are bonds still effective portfolio diversifiers? What can the history of asset-backed securities tell us about their future? These are questions that Tom Rutledge, fixed income strategist at Magnetar Capital, explores alongside Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison. Rutledge outlines the myriad array of problems facing fixed-income investors -- from liquidity constraints to finding yield pick-ups as yields continue to decline. He then describes specific opportunities he sees in industries ranging from hospitality to tech. Filmed on September 3, 2020. Click here for Rutledge’s report, “Specialty Finance: An Investor’s History”: https://rvtv.io/2Rt9jtE
Michael Nicoletos, CIO and co-founder of Appletree Capital, is joined by John Floyd, head of macro strategies at Record Currency Management, to analyze the mounting pressures on the Turkish Lira as well as other emerging market (EM) currencies. Floyd breaks down his bearish thesis on the Turkish Lira (TRY), citing Turkey's deeply negative real rates, dwindling FX reserves, and a banking sector deeply indebted to foreign creditors on a dollar- or euro-denominated basis. Floyd and Nicoletos then discuss the knock-on effects of a Turkish Lira collapse as so many European banks (especially Spanish ones) are heavily exposed to Turkey. Lastly, Floyd shares with Nicoletos the various trades to express this view. Filmed on September 9, 2020. For John Floyd's report, click here: https://rvtv.io/3bMJSMN
Keith Dicker, founder and CIO of IceCap Asset Management, joins Real Vision to give a strategic overview of the U.S. Dollar. Dicker breaks down the Eurodollar system to analyze the pressures on non-dollar currencies: negative rates, extreme debt borrowings, and government deficits spiraling out of control. Dicker takes a look at what is in store for the Turkish Lira as well as other emerging market currencies and discusses the fate of the DXY currencies as well. Dicker then provides a guidepost for how investors can position themselves to take advantage of asymmetric opportunities. Filmed on September 8, 2020. For additional charts from Dicker's long dollar fund (which he co-manages with Brent Johnson), click here: http://icecapassetmanagement.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2020.05.21-Special-Presentation-Santiago-IceCap.pdf
For weeks leading up to the recent dramatic sell-off, the VIX and other measures of equity volatility like the VXN were rising as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite were humming along higher and higher. To long vol traders like Matt Rowe, CIO of Headwaters Solutions, this was a huge tell that something was looming on the horizon. Rowe explains how he prepares his portfolio for these types of events, why mini volatility events can be much more profitable for long vol traders than the market meltdown we saw in March, and also explains why chasing an expanding vol market can be a fatal error. As well, he gives insight into market positioning going into the event, the chances that this mini event could turn into something much larger, and attempts to answer the ultimate question of, “what is the strike of the Fed put?” should this sell-off continue. Filmed on September 4, 2020.
Alexander Leishman, founder and CEO of River Financial, joins Real Vision to break down his venture, River.com, and his perspective on the crypto space. Leishman talks about the problems that River solves for investors as the first bitcoin financial institution. He explains the complex world of bitcoin banking services including the coming technical innovations, the diverse set of clientele crypto banking can serve, and the future adoption of crypto by the corporate world. Additionally, Leishman shares his thesis for the future of bitcoin itself, arguing that if bitcoin continues on its current trajectory, it could replace the US Dollar as the world reserve currency. Filmed August 25, 2020.
James Altucher, author and former hedge-fund manager, speaks to Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, about his recent head-turning op-ed, “NYC is Dead Forever – Here’s Why.” James lays out his thesis in detail, arguing that a work-from-home economy is a death-knell for everything that is quintessentially "New York" -- from hot dog stands to Broadway shows. James and Ash discuss the consequences on commercial real estate as well as how this scenario might affect other asset classes. They explore the worst-case scenario and the potential silver linings. Filmed on September 2nd, 2020.