This starting point leaves no stone unturned in attempting to spot unrecognized political and policy developments that could not only shape markets, but also entire countries and regions. A great starting point for macro and political enthusiasts.
Yields Surge to Pre-Pandemic Levels as Investors Anticipate Fed Action
Bond yields rose across the curve Tuesday and stocks sank, as investors began to price in the potential impact of as many as four Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022. The U.S. 10-year yield jumped to 1.865%, the highest it’s been since January 2020, and the German 10-year bund moved to within one basis point of turning positive for the first time since 2019. U.S. equity indexes were off nearly 2%, while European stocks fell about 1%. The CBOE Volatility Index (known as the “fear gauge”) surged as much as 20% intraday. Meanwhile, Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices continued to rise on strengthening global demand and tightening tensions in the Middle East. Still, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Alfonso Peccatiello of The Macro Compass welcomes back Nordea Markets Global Rates Strategist Andreas Steno Larsen for a European perspective on what's driving markets today. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3fD6xhw
Jan 18, 2022
Breedlove vs. Green: Hard Money, Bitcoin, and Political Failings
This is your chance to benefit from an exchange of ideas between two brilliant modern thinkers. Mike Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, is a well-known Bitcoin bear. On the other hand, Robert Breedlove, founder of the “What Is Money?” podcast, is one of its most vehement proponents. Their disagreements originate from deeper convictions surrounding the proper methods of organizing society and the economy: Laissez-Faire versus centrally planned. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington moderates this fiery debate between Breedlove and Green on the roles of money and the state. The discussion begins on Bitcoin and weaves into larger political and socio-economic topics within which Bitcoin could play a significant role. Recorded on January 7, 2022.
Mario Draghi was not in the house: INK daily preview Jan 12
As we conclude in our US market report, we probably won't be going back to the old monetary policy garage. If that is the case and if we have hit peak Fed hawkishness, precious metals could rally. In today's morning report, we look at one PGE-focused stock that has been hitting our screens.
Hikes Won't Cool Inflation, but the Fed Has No Other Choice
Wall Street’s economists have issued their predictions for 2022, and most expect to see slower U.S. growth and easing inflation this year. Cem Karsan disagrees. In a view that also differs from host Darius Dale, he believes fiscal stimulus will continue to give the U.S. economy a boost in the short term and that tighter monetary policy won’t lower inflation as quickly as the Fed hopes. Longer term, he’s bearish. The CIO of Kai Volatility Advisors says rate hikes will reduce liquidity, ultimately leading to an economic slowdown, but it will be a long time before consumer prices see a dip. Recorded on December 27, 2021.
With the Fed’s plans to wind down pandemic-era stimulus and raise rates three times next year, this ‘Best of Essential’ interview questions the central bank’s role and analysis of the economy. Raoul has known David Rosenberg for over 20 years, and he has always been one of his favorite analysts on the business cycle. In this episode of The Journey Man, Raoul tests his thoughts of an impending economic slowdown with David. As ever, David doesn’t mince his words and argues that the Fed’s forecasts, along with most analysts’, are likely dead wrong and that inflation concerns should take a backseat because deflation is set for a comeback. Recorded on September 24, 2021.
Did the Fed Topple Your Assets? Advice for Your Wallet
As the Fed wages its battle against inflation by signaling raising interest rates in 2022 at a faster pace than expected, Liz Young, Head of Investment Strategy at SoFi, explains who the winners and losers are from the Fed’s decision and how we should position our investments. Will a hike in interest rates accelerate the growth of cryptocurrencies? In the UK, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years from 0.1% to 0.25%, which may increase the mortgage costs of some homeowners. In the meantime, businesses around the world continue to suffer from the spread of Covid and the Omicron variant. Liz Young speaks about these issues, the macro environment, our investment future, the clean energy trends, and the supply chain woes. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3F6i6ca
In the most highly anticipated decision of the year, the Fed said it would ramp up its pace of tapering and hike rates three times in 2022. So what does that mean for your investments? Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, shares his thoughts on how investors should position themselves as we head into the New Year. Will Bitcoin be a hedge to an uncertain future? Interviewed by The Macro Compass author Alfonso Peccatiello. Want to submit questions? Drop them here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/325Am6A
Dec 07, 2021
Universal Tokenization: The Road to a Limitless Blockchain
Many new crypto start-ups who collect money in exchange for the distribution of their token seem to think this does not classify as a “security”, according to Douglas Borthwick, chief marketing officer and head of business development at INX Limited. The SEC disagrees. Borthwik is working to create vital infrastructure for the “tokenization of everything” world of tomorrow. He and the team at INX are working to get ahead of the curb in regards to regulation. Their vision for which sorts of assets could exist on blockchain in the future expands beyond financial assets. Perhaps we could see passports, social security, and driver’s licenses all represented as NFTs unique to the individual. The “tokenization of everything” revolution could be larger than we think. Interviewed by Ash Bennington on December 2, 2021.
Taper tantrums, scary headlines, Omicron fears, and cold winters are making consumers very nervous. Michael Kao and Warren Pies agree that oil prices are going much higher. Nothing goes up in a straight line, but fundamentals support a rise in the price of oil, says Kao. Pies argues that if the Omicron variant turns out to be more deadly and more transmissible than expected, the world is in for a much bigger mess that will impact oil and other risk assets. Kao and Pies analyze the significance of the U.S. decision to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to lower prices, likening it to “spitting in the Ocean.” Pies suggests that bad policies are being implemented at the government level and by officials who think the oil and gas era is over. "If politics and optics are going to drive policy that is a scary place to be,” says Pies. What is the role of OPEC+ in this? Will other countries follow the U.S. decision to release reserves, or will they back out? These important questions are answered by Kao and Pies for investors who decide to bet on oil. Recorded on November 30, 2021.
Dec 03, 2021
The Revolution Will Be Digitized
Chief Experience Officer at Ledger Ian Rogers's career is THE golden thread of the digitization of everything from music to culture, fashion and money. I’m actually hard pressed to write a descriptor for this video as we covered so much ground in so many areas, and this was exactly the conversation I wanted to have with Ian! We even managed pick each other’s brains to think through the enormity of what is happening and what it might mean. Ian was the outsider, who is now the ultimate insider but is disrupting everything from this coveted position and is clearly having a lot of fun doing it. Amazing conversation. Enjoy! Best, Raoul.
When it comes to inflation, the pandemic has bred several narratives around the topic. Guest host and CEO of Alpha Architect Wes Gray sits down with Discipline Fund CIO Cullen Roche to discuss the complex causes of inflation, the impact of stimulus checks on the economy, and real estate as an inflation-hedge option. Roche explains that in a modern monetary system, “the money supply has a very elastic quality to it, where the money supply can grow and shrink as we need it to... so inflation, in the long-term is sort of the tradeoff for having a flexible money supply.” He also believes that there seems to be a certain degree of gaslighting from a lot of people who are trying to argue that fiscal policy did not cause inflation. Find out more on this episode of The Interview. Recorded on November 15, 2021.