Policy Disruption

This starting point leaves no stone unturned in attempting to spot unrecognized political and policy developments that could not only shape markets, but also entire countries and regions. A great starting point for macro and political enthusiasts.

Real Vision Sep 23, 2019
Former Fed Insiders on Dollar Repo Madness
Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief strategist at Quill Intelligence, interviews George Goncalves of The Bond Strategist in his first appearance on Real Vision. As two former insiders at the Dallas Fed, Danielle and George deconstruct the US Dollar liquidity problems and help clarify the major structural issues confronting the repo markets. Filmed on September 18, 2019 in New York. Please see Danielle & George’s note here - https://www.realvision.com/fed-insiders-on-dollar-repo-madness-report.
Real Vision Sep 23, 2019
European Banks: Value Play or Value Trap?
Is there a case for buying beaten-down European bank stocks? AK explains what’s been going wrong, and examines whether there’s now a case for taking a second look.
Real Vision Sep 20, 2019
Europe's Lurking Asset Allocation Crisis
Philipp Vorndran, investment strategist at Flossbach Von Storch for a decade and former chief investment strategist at Credit Suisse Asset Management, speaks bluntly about Europe’s money management business and the approach he is taking at his firm to maximize total return for investors. He shares his global perspective in the face of an uncertain outlook for investment in European-based companies. In addition to detailing his firm’s asset allocation strategies, Vorndran also tackles the need for physical gold, and addresses the coming crisis in European pension companies who are universally under-leveraged to equities. Filmed on August 30, 2019 in Cologne, Germany. Learn more about Macro Insiders here: http://www.realvision.com/macro-insiders
Real Vision Sep 19, 2019
How to Build an Investment Thesis
Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group is known for his expertise in technical analysis, but in this episode, Floyd explains why technicals alone aren’t enough to build an airtight investment thesis. He highlights the other factors he uses in combination with technical analysis, and breaks down what these indicators are saying for bonds, currencies, and equities. Filmed on September 18, 2019 in Bend, Oregon.
Real Vision Sep 19, 2019
The European Conundrum
Andreas Steno Larsen, joint head of macro strategy at Nordea Markets, sits down with Roger Hirst to discuss the European banking system’s current predicament and the implications of the ECB’s recent announcement of “QE Eternity.” He runs down the risks facing Europe to explain his forecast for what the next five years will look like for the Eurozone. Steno Larsen also shares his thesis regarding whether central banks can stay one step ahead of the markets. Filmed on September 13, 2019 in London.
Real Vision Sep 19, 2019
What the Fed Cut Means for the Treasury Trade
Tony Greer, editor in chief of The Morning Navigator, breaks down the FOMC’s decision to cut interest rates and discusses why he thinks it’s business as usual for markets. In this interview with Alex Rosenberg, Greer walks through the recent spikes in both oil prices and the repo market respectively, highlights the trade war’s impact on the bond market, and reviews where he expects the 10-year Treasury note to head next. Filmed on September 18, 2019.
Real Vision Sep 18, 2019
The Monetary Policy Endgame
Simon White, co-founder of Variant Perception, explains his view that as interest rates approach the zero bound, conventional monetary policy tools do not achieve their intended goals, but instead create deflationary pressures. He argues that in a negative-rate world, the private sector increases savings rates to combat their lack of income - causing an even bigger deflationary push. White believes that conventional monetary policy is nearing its limits, and MMT will unleash a flurry of inflation as politicians take control of policy. Filmed on September 13, 2019 in London. Variant Perception’s whitepaper on MMT can be accessed at this link: https://rvtv.io/2kEGXzQ
Real Vision Sep 18, 2019
Bonds: The Fed & Trade Wars
Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, updates his home-run trade on Treasuries and reviews his current outlook for recession. In this interview with Jake Merl, Sri highlights the upcoming FOMC meeting, discusses why the trade war is the main driver for the bond market, and notes his expectations for the 10-year Treasury yield. Filmed on September 17, 2019.
Real Vision Sep 18, 2019
China's Uncertain Currency Situation
Russell Clark of Horseman Capital explains to Roger Hirst why the Chinese are in a sticky currency situation. Clark argues that as the global economy sputters and the trade war rages on, there is a risk that the Chinese authorities will be pushed to further devalue the renminbi. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on July 11, 2019 entitled “Will Chinese Devaluation Be the Black Swan.”
Real Vision Sep 17, 2019
When Monetary Policy Isn't Enough
Christophe Ollari, founder of Ollari Consulting, predicts that we have seen the peak of monetary easing for this cycle. In its place, Ollari argues that policy will tilt toward a new sort of “Social QE” - involving central banks and governments in Europe, Japan, and the U.S. acting in concert. Ollari explains the political ramifications of this shift in policy, and speaks to what it means for markets. Filmed on September 13, 2019 in London.
Real Vision Sep 16, 2019
How to Save the Euro
Thomas Mayer, founder and managing director of the Flossbach von Storch Research Institute, speaks to Ed Harrison about the impact that the creation of the European Union has had on the precarious economic conditions in Europe. Mayer outlines the unsustainable dynamic of the cross-border bank deposits between the central banks of EU member states like Germany and Italy. He also makes the argument that digitalizing the euro might be the solution to the problems facing Europe’s monetary union. Filmed on August 30, 2019 in Cologne, Germany. Learn more about Macro Insiders here: http://www.realvision.com/macro-insiders
Real Vision Sep 05, 2019
A Unique Bond Rally Play
Dan Russo, CMT, chief market strategist at Chaikin Analytics, presents a unique real estate analytics company as a way to play the rally in bonds. In this interview with Jake Merl, Russo walks through the bullish signals from his proprietary model, discusses how much upside he expects for the stock, and notes key risks to the trade. Filmed on September 4, 2019.