Policy Disruption

This starting point leaves no stone unturned in attempting to spot unrecognized political and policy developments that could not only shape markets, but also entire countries and regions. A great starting point for macro and political enthusiasts.

Real Vision Jan 23, 2020
Expensive But Not Overvalued
Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Cornerstone Macro, returns to Real Vision to articulate his stock market outlook for 2020. Noting ultra-low interest rates, narrow credit spreads, and a record-low level of cyclicality in the S&P 500, Kantrowitz argues that while the stock market is certainly expensive, it may not necessarily be overvalued. He recommends a balanced approach that favors value stocks over growth, cyclical over non-cyclical, and domestic over foreign. Filmed on January 21, 2020 in New York.
Real Vision Jan 21, 2020
Canadian Banks: "The Anchor That Drags Your Whole Portfolio Down"
Kevin Muir, editor of the Macro Tourist newsletter, sits down with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to discuss why he believes interest rates and inflation, long tempered by dovish monetary policy, will rise once again. He sees Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a good way to hedge against the U.S. dollar’s inflationary risk and recommends shorting both the Canadian dollar and Canadian banks. He also explains his bullish thesis on energy stocks, which he argues is a bargain at current prices. Filmed on January 13, 2020, in Toronto.
Real Vision Jan 21, 2020
Canadian Banks: "The Anchor That Drags Your Whole Portfolio Down"
Kevin Muir, editor of the Macro Tourist newsletter, sits down with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to discuss why he believes interest rates and inflation, long tempered by dovish monetary policy, will rise once again. He sees Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a good way to hedge against the U.S. dollar’s inflationary risk and recommends shorting both the Canadian dollar and Canadian banks. He also explains his bullish thesis on energy stocks, which he argues is a bargain at current prices. Filmed on January 13, 2020, in Toronto.
Real Vision Jan 20, 2020
The Best Laid Plans: Understanding Elizabeth Warren's Economics
David Bahnsen, founder and CIO of The Bahnsen Group, takes a deep dive into the economic portfolio of Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren. Bahnsen unpacks the potential inconsistencies and contradictions of Warren's plan — with a particular focus on the consequences of a wealth tax. Filmed on January 13, 2020 in New York.
Real Vision Jan 17, 2020
The Bond Bullion Bonfire
David Rosenberg returns to Real Vision to discuss the interplay between yield and price in an era of record-low interest rates. In conversation with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, he warns about the decade-long asset inflation in stocks as well as in bonds, which he perceives as a liquidity cycle not backed by fundamentals. He predicts central banks will remain dovish and reveals why he is constructive on gold, commodities, energy stocks, and a number of long-duration treasuries. Filmed on January 13, 2020, in Toronto.
Real Vision Jan 16, 2020
Distressed Sovereign Debt: The Final Frontier of Active Management
Hans Humes, CEO of Greylock Capital, has participated in more sovereign debt restructurings than perhaps anyone else on the planet. He breaks down the current sovereign debt landscape with particular focus on Argentina’s newest restructuring. Humes also examines distressed sovereign debt as an asset class, explaining why the political nature of crisis, ever-evolving legislation, and headline-driven markets will leave ample opportunity for the chosen few who swim in these deep waters. Filmed on January 10, 2020 in New York.
Real Vision Jan 15, 2020
Bond Market Secrets: Offsetting Asymmetric Downside Risk
Gershon Distenfeld co-heads a fixed-income team at AllianceBernstein that manages over $300 billion in assets. He joins Real Vision to discuss how the high-yield credit space can function as an alternative to the stock market and why the best bond investors focus on avoiding losers rather than picking winners. He underscores the importance of fixed-income diversification and gives his thoughts on leveraged loans, collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). Filmed on January 10, 2020, in New York.
Real Vision Jan 13, 2020
Decarbonization: The Divestment Death Cycle
Rob West, founder of Thunder Said Energy – an energy consulting firm, understands that the total decarbonization of the energy industry will be fueled by political attitudes around the world over the next few decades. However, West argues that proponents of ESG investing fail to understand that this transition will involve massive investment in fossil fuels and cooperation with villainized oil majors. He explains his framework for total decarbonization of the energy industry by 2050, and highlights the new technologies and investment vehicles that will be necessary to drive the transition. Filmed on October 18, 2019 in New York.
Real Vision Jan 13, 2020
Profiting from Mispriced Credit Risk
Daniel Zwirn, CEO of Arena Investors, kicks off Debt Week by bringing his unique credit framework to Real Vision. Zwirn argues that a decade of cheap money has worsened credit quality, but that nevertheless there are lucrative fixed-income opportunities on the long- as well as short-side. He warns of the risks he sees in leveraged loans (as well as the CLOs that package them), noting the "asset-liability mismatch" as one of his most severe concerns. Other topics include: regulatory change, interest rate risk, and idiosyncratic plays in energy and real estate. Filmed on January 6, 2020, in New York.
Real Vision Jan 10, 2020
Oil & The Next Recession
Will the underlying dynamics of the oil market be the next black swan? Mark Gordon, CIO of the Ascent Oil Fund, joins Real Vision to unpack his data-driven view on why the rising tide of scarcity in oil markets could be the trigger for the next global recession. Gordon's thesis touches on the shale markets, the risks posed by electric vehicles, his outlook for production and exploration stocks, and the recent unrest in Iran and the Middle East. Filmed on January 3, 2020 in New York.
Real Vision Jan 10, 2020
Has the Bond Market Finally Turned?
Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, returns to Real Vision in 2020 with a bold bet on the bond market and reviews where he thinks yields are headed next. In this interview with Justine Underhill, Greer examines the current macro environment, highlights emerging inflationary signals, and discusses how traders should position for a bear-steepener in 2020. He also notes a specific ETF – $IEF – to play the thesis and lays out the trade’s risk/reward parameters. Filmed on January 8, 2019.
Real Vision Jan 09, 2020
The Consequences of Clearing Macro Overhangs
Jay Pelosky of TPW Investment Management sits down with Real Vision's Ed Harrison to discuss his investment framework for 2020. Looking at macro factors that could surprise market participants, Pelosky breaks down why the investors and institutions are unprepared for the level of inflation he expects to bear out in 2020. Additionally, Pelosky explains why an unexpected inflationary event could send the equity markets soaring and shock the bond market into downturn. Filmed on December 20, 2019 in New York.