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All three major U.S. equity indexes were up more than 2% heading into Friday’s close, even as the University of Michigan’s reading of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June. As its inflation-fighting efforts threaten growth, the Federal Reserve released results of its periodic “stress tests” showing that all subject banks passed. “Bear in mind,” tweeted Jim Bianco, “the Fed does NOT test for a massive policy error leading to soaring interest rates and huge losses. In other words, these tests, created and conducted by the Fed, assume the Fed never makes a mistake.” Bianco, the founder and president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about markets, the economy, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. We also hear from Eric Johnston about the market’s perception of the U.S. central bank and its ability to meet its own targets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yirRmq. Watch the full conversation featuring Eric Johnston and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3bpLTT0.
INK Ultra Money Free: As gloom hangs over markets to start the week, we look at the bearish and bullish cases for gold, as well as highlighting some non-resource areas of the market where insider remains upbeat. Join us as we let the insiders guide us to opportunity in challenging markets and get access to INK report downloads under this video for our members.
U.S. equity indexes ground generally higher through the trading session Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 breaking into the green but the Nasdaq Composite struggling in negative territory. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped by six basis points to 2.88%, as bonds caught a bid on economic growth concerns. Recent data from China indicate President Xi’s “COVID Zero” policy is exerting a tremendous drag on the domestic economy, with down-the-line impacts on the global economy sure to follow, including supply-chain snarls. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein warned of a "very, very high risk" of a US recession. Eric Johnston, head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset for Cantor Fitzgerald, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about short-, medium-, and long-term direction for stocks, recent macro data, and earnings. We also hear from Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, about whether the Fed has not just the policy tools but the general resolve to do what has to be done to end inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3wsV3Ff. Watch the full interview featuring Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jim Bianco here: https://rvtv.io/3MmeBlg.
Stocks Rally as Investors Shrug Off Consumers' Concerns
Markets rebounded sharply Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its first positive trading session after six consecutive down days. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said engineering a soft landing would involve “some pain,” as the central bank remains on track for 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July. U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest in more than a decade, as April data from the University of Michigan survey showed a drop from 65.2 to 59.1. The average per-gallon price of gasoline hit a new high and continues to weigh on the minds of Americans. And the geopolitical situation promises more constraints on key energy and food supplies. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the energy market’s impact on the broader market. We also hear from Alex Gurevich, who says there’s a 0% chance of a soft landing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3NfvoGC. Watch the full interview featuring Alex Gurevich and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3w9TH38.
U.S. Stocks Rally on Strong Start to Earnings Season
The major U.S. equity indexes were all up more than 1% late in Monday’s regular trading session, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite leading the way with a 1.85% gain. Stocks today seem to reflect a strong start to earnings reporting season. According to Bloomberg, 38 of the 48 S&P 500 components that have reported so far have posted positive surprises. Earlier in the day, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched 2.93%, a level the benchmark rate hasn’t seen since 2018, as bond investors continue to price in the impact of Federal Reserve efforts to fight inflation. U.S. natural gas prices eased off after hitting 13-year highs ahead of an unusual April snowstorm in the Northeast. Crude oil slid nearly 5% on Tuesday, as the International Monetary Fund cut its 2022 and 2023 global growth forecasts. And broader concerns about global resource constraints amid the war in Eastern Europe linger. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the stock market rally, commodities, energy, and inflation, and the problem the Federal Reserve faces in trying to stabilize prices without triggering a recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3vsVH5c.
Inside the "Savagely Unhealthy" U.S. Housing Market
A record inventory shortage has created what some are calling a housing bubble and is driving feeding-frenzy-like bidding wars for listings. HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami talks to Real Vision’s Ash Bennington about an intensifying U.S. housing crisis. The market right now, as Mohtashami sees it, is “the unhealthiest” it’s been since 2010. Hopeful buyers and current renters are in tight spots, but homeowners are sitting pretty with a convenient hedge against inflation, he notes. Mohtashami addresses common misconceptions about the housing market, including the idea that increased construction will solve the shortage. He also speculates on what an inverted yield curve might mean for the sector. Recorded March 31, 2022.
Insider stocks jump in Q1 INK Preview 1 April 2022
The INK Canadian Insider Index was a top performer in the first quarter thanks to exposure to energy stocks. In terms of our morning report, we kick the second quarter off with copper producer Amerigo Resources (ARG).