What happens when an upheaval so massive forces financial markets, governments, and society to rethink how our systems work? Michael Krieger, author of the Liberty Blitzkrieg, joins Real Vision to explain what coronavirus and the response to the outbreak has revealed about the condition of American systems – from financial markets to the health care system. Tracing the story of financial markets and societal trends over the past two decades, Krieger outlines how our systems have been pushed to the brink – focusing on emergency policy responses and the everything bubble. He also provides viewers with potential solutions to the systemic decay that has been brought to the forefront by the coronavirus outbreak.
Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management, joins Mike Green of Logica Capital to discuss the broader economic and financial conditions markets are experiencing amid coronavirus’ chaos. The pair discuss the current macro environment, volatility, government policy responses - both monetary and fiscal. Through their breakdown of a broad array of topics, Peters and Green tackle topics ranging from global supply chains to the merger of human and machine intelligence.
In the past few years, nobody could have predicted that a pandemic would be the catalyst sending shock waves through the entire global economy, plunging us into a bear market in record time. Some voices though have been screaming from the rooftops about the macroeconomic and structural weaknesses that left markets vulnerable to any potential disruption. One of those voices was Steen Jakobsen, CIO of Saxo Bank. In this interview with Roger Hirst, Jakobsen examines the weaknesses of a buyback-driven and debt-ridden market that have been quickly exposed by coronavirus. They also look into the future at how the crisis will affect real assets, the dollar, the banking system, and why, when all is said and done, we could see both inflation and deflation.
What happens to the economics of oil when the global economy shuts down because of coronavirus? Harris Kupperman, CIO and president of Praetorian Capital, breaks down the chaos coronavirus has inserted into global oil markets and provides investors with an investment thesis based on the opportunity that chaos has created. In the context of the global shutdown, Kupperman reveals how the combination of the current oil futures contango, all-time highs in tanker charter rates, and the dearth of crude oil storage could lead to never-before-seen revenues and profits for the tanking companies. He walks viewers through the numbers, explains the underpinning economics of the oil markets, and provides time horizons and potential profit multiples for those looking to find opportunity through uncertain times. Released on March 26, 2020.
Credit Chaos and Fool's Yield: Updating the Thesis
Dan Rasmussen, the CIO and Founder of Verdad Capital Advisers, speaks with his colleague Greg Obenshain, Verdad’s director of credit, to examine the credit market sell-off over the past two months. They focus on the recent widening of spreads and other areas of financial markets hit hardest by the recent acceleration. Rasmussen asks Obenshain what the biggest factors for returns in corporate credit are, the turmoil in the credit markets has impacted the energy sector, and where they see the biggest opportunities for investors will be coming out of the crisis. They also update Verdad’s Fool’s Yield thesis that the company has been writing about since January 2020 and that Rasmussen has presented to Real Vision members in the past few months. Filmed on March 17, 2020 over Skype.
What happens when leveraged companies that have little tolerance for risk encounter one of the greatest exogenous shocks in macroeconomic history? This is the question that Mike Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Logica Capital Advisors, and Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, attempt to answer in a wide-ranging conversation about the long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. They argue that the knock-on effects of this crisis are made worse by very high debt levels and that, while the coronavirus will sweep away thousands of overindebted entities, resilient market actors will nevertheless be able to emerge from this chaos stronger than ever. Filmed on March 11, 2020, in New York.
Coronavirus & Zombie Ideas: How Policymakers Respond to Crisis
Paul Krugman, Nobel laureate, PhD economist, and political commenter, joins Vincent Catalano of Stuyvesant Capital Management to discuss how coronavirus mayhem has plunged financial markets, global economies, and geopolitics into chaos. Through the lens of his new book, “Arguing with Zombies: Economics, Politics, and the Fight for a Better Future,” Krugman argues that in response to coronavirus’ economic impact, the Federal government should give financial aid to state governments, local governments, and even citizens directly. Krugman and Catalano examine the role that fiscal and monetary policy play together, the importance of leadership in crises, and the potential for the enaction of seemingly extreme policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak. Filmed on March 17, 2020 in New York.
With coronavirus wreaking havoc worldwide, it’s a perilous time to be in the market. Businesses around the world are shutting down. Equities are plummeting as investors flee to safety, and central banks, desperate to contain the financial contagion, are reaching into their arsenal to do whatever it takes. Today, Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at the ATAC Rotation Fund, sits down with Michael Venuto, chief investment officer of Toroso Investments, and explores the question that’s on everyone’s mind: Is this a fleeting moment of panic, or are we seeing the conditions for a true doomsday scenario? The pair place the massive sell-off in context, explore whether ETFs are making the violent price swings worse, and take a deep dive into the plumbing of the markets. Filmed on March 10, 2020, in New York.
Gold and Coronavirus: The Party is Just Getting Started
After this week’s massive exhale in the gold price, investors are left wondering whether this was the famed effect of margin call selling that could continue if equities move lower, or an unexplained opportunity to pile in at levels not seen since January. Regardless, with central banks cutting interest rates, the return of QE, and the potential for continued woes in equity markets, the medium-term outlook for gold has seldom looked better. That’s why we are bringing back George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street, to assess gold in a world ravaged by coronavirus. He endeavors to answer the questions of whether we will see gold continue to sell-off due to margin call selling, if the speculative interests that drove the price of gold higher after the last crisis have finally returned to the market, and how gold will perform relative to other precious metals and miners that people often see as levered play on the spot price. Filmed on March 11, 2020 in New York.
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal reports from self-quarantine on Little Cayman to break down this jaw-dropping week of volatility, rate-cutting, and continued contagion. Using charts published today in his renowned research publication, Global Macro Investor, Raoul analyzes the ongoing spread of the COVID-19 virus. He examines the plumbing of the markets in what could be the beginnings of a full-fledged liquidity crisis. Raoul unpacks his macro outlook on stocks, bonds, credit, gold, and the dollar. Filming in real time, Raoul then adds a post-script about the astonishing rate cut by the Fed. Filmed on March 15, 2020, on Little Cayman. Find Raoul's latest GMI report on the coronavirus outbreak here: https://rvtv.io/2vv2h04
In today's report, INK Research looks at Enbridge (ENB) where an insider bought last week near two-year lows. For patient investors, those lows may yet again be tested, offering potentially cheaper entry points.
Konstantin Boehmer, portfolio manager of global fixed income at McKinsey Investments, joins Ed Harrison to present his long-term macro thesis, based on emerging trends in ESG investing. Boehmer explains that his investment thesis is not about the ESG movement within the investment industry specifically, but rather it is about generational changes and lifestyle choices people are already making. Identifying patterns in business and technology cycles over the last 250 to 300 years, he argues that mankind is on the brink of another technological golden age. Along with the evolution in technology adoption he predicts, he also foresees cultural changes that will lead to actionable investment opportunities based on new priorities in how people choose to live their lives. Filmed on February 13, 2020 in Toronto.