In this interview with Jason Buck of The Mutiny Fund, famed short-seller Marc Cohodes of Alder Lane Farm pulls no punches as he diagnoses the true culprits behind the exponential volatility in stocks such as GameStop: extreme leverage and the hedge funds who use it in order to juice returns. Cohodes argues that hedge funds like Point72 and Melvin Capital are creating significant systemic risk for all market participants, most notably themselves, and he congratulates the retail trades on r/WallStreetBets but warns them that, generally, buying a stock merely because it has high short interest is a very bad idea. He closes by sharing with Buck his personal journey during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Filmed on February 1, 2021. Key learnings: The stock market is not a game – it is a serious thing for serious people. The reckless use of leverage ought to be constrained by regulators, and all investors, institutional as well as retail, should be prepared to lose if they are wrong.
Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal makes an emergency update to all Real Vision members on his current views as founder of GMI. The combination of market maker positioning, hedge fund positioning, retail positioning, excessive leverage, market technicals, and real economic risk from COVID are the biggest set of sell signals Raoul has ever seen, and although he understands why everyone is jumping on the current anti-establishment narratives around Robinhood, he believes people are missing the bigger story here of unprecedented market risk. All the stars are aligning, and Raoul is extremely concerned about what could unfold as soon as this week. In addition to outlining the major risks looming large, he updates his positioning and makes the case for owning equity puts, bonds, dollars, gold and bitcoin. Filmed on January 30, 2021.
Byrne Hobart, writer at The Diff, joins Taylor Pearson, co-chief investment officer of Mutiny Fund, for a wide-ranging discussion on everything from monopolization within technological companies to "Straussian" readings of Jerome Powell and Anthony Fauci to what the 800-year chart of real interest rates indicates about the history of capital markets. Hobart scrutinizes what the tendency of technological firms to mimic the major winners in the space means for the future of technological innovation and the venture capital industry as well as the capital that tracks it. After Pearson asks Hobart about the notion of "optionality" as applied to Airbnb, they discuss their risk/reward analysis of Bitcoin as well as the recent companies that went public via special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). Filmed on January 8th, 2021. Key learnings: This interview contains many contradictory propositions such as the notion that bubbles can be useful and that citizens living during the fall of an empire have a better quality of life than those that lived during its rise. Hobart argues that SPACs as a whole offer little upside and that Bitcoin has a favorable (if skewed) risk/reward profile.
Is Chesswood Group stock back on a journey to higher ground?
For Chesswood Group (CHW) shareholders, it has been a long ride down from the stock's peak in 2013. However, the stock of the commercial equipment finance company has been mounting a comeback this year and insiders have been buying. Could a short-squeeze help fuel the stock higher?
Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to explore what happens when a biological crisis turns into a financial crisis. They explain why they both think this liquidity crisis is far from over and why, as the deleveraging continues, the dollar will continue to reign supreme. They also examine whether shorting equities is worth the risk, how much juice is left in the bond trade, and if it's too early to go into gold. Filmed on March 20, 2020, over Skype.
Imagine being furnished with generational wealth under one condition – you must choose only one asset allocation for your portfolio and stick with it for 100 years. Where would you even start? Chris Cole, CIO and founder of Artemis Capital Management, returns to Real Vision to answer that very question. He sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence to discuss the optimal portfolio construction for the long run, regardless of market condition. With uncertainty everywhere despite all-highs in the market, Cole discusses how to navigate Charlie Munger’s "death of the efficient frontier." He explains the allegory of the Hawk and Serpent and breaks down the construction of his 100-year portfolio. Cole and Booth provide viewers with the tools to traverse the "incremental death of alpha," and markets that are increasingly subject to the amplified volatility of increasingly passive investments. This piece is a much-watch for the pension fund or endowment that has no long-volatility exposure in their portfolio. Filmed on February 7, 2020 in Austin, Texas. To find Chris's report: https://docsend.com/view/taygkbn
Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) was a dog of the INK Canadian Insider Index when it left on November 15th during the semi-annual rebalancing. It was removed because its price was too low. Now, INK Research wonders if this dog may have its day in 2020.
Andrew Freedman, CFA, communications sector head at Hedgeye, explains why the battle between streaming services is set to explode in November. In this interview with Jake Merl, Freedman updates his pairs trade on Netflix and Disney, examines why cord-cutting and content wars are bullish for Roku, and notes his outlook for the three stocks. Filmed on October 29, 2019.
Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group sees $BBBY’s recent price spike as a great opportunity to get short. Since Mark Tritton’s appointment as CEO was announced on October 9th, the stock is up over 40%, and Floyd sees this as too much too fast for the relatively untested executive. With over 60% of the float currently shorted, Floyd lays out an alternative method of playing the setup using call spreads. Filmed on October 23, 2019 in Bend, Oregon.