In many ways, China is at the center of the public health and economic crisis that has gripped the entire world for most of 2020, but recently more focus has been placed on the U.S. and Europe. George Magnus, research associate for the China Centre at Oxford University, helps viewers revert their gaze back towards the global superpower sized elephant in the room. Together with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, Magnus examines the current state of affairs for China from the perspective of the western countries left with a bad taste in their mouths after China’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, but also from the internal perspective of a country looking to restart its growth engine and position itself for a world with fewer allies and a new economy with less reliance on traditional global trade partners. In addition, they examine the health of the Chinese banking system, the return of credit growth in China, and the potential for western sanctions and the outright weaponization of the U.S. dollar. Filmed on July 6, 2020.
By both surprise and necessity, Modern Monetary Theory is here at our doorstep. And with neither major party remaining as the party of ‘fiscal responsibility’, it seems there is little standing in the way of MMT becoming the premise for US government spending initiatives. That’s why it is more important than ever to understand the thinking behind MMT and the common misconceptions surrounding it -- and to prepare your portfolio for its increased acceptance by politicians who view it as an invitation to spend. In this interview with Marshall Auerback of the Levy Economics Institute, Stephanie Kelton breaks down the arguments put forward in her new book, “The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy”. Together they discuss why MMT does not give governments carte blanche to spend indiscriminately. Kelton also articulates why comparing government debts to private debts is flawed. She explores the varying gradations of monetary sovereignty as it relates to constraints on countries potentially using MMT as an economic framework. Finally, Kelton touches on the ‘job guarantee vs. UBI’ debate and much more in this interview that is sure to be a learning experience for MMT skeptics and believers alike. Filmed on July 2, 2020.
The Highest Quality Macro Trades and the Impending End of U.S. Outperformance
Ben Melkman, CEO and founder of Light Sky Macro, returns to discuss the biggest macro themes and trades on the horizon with Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal. In this wide-ranging discussion, they examine everything from COVID and the effects of its handling by the U.S. and Europe to the probability of fiscal union in Europe as well as the potential outcomes of the U.S. election. Melkman and Pal agree that the combination of unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy has to have unwanted consequences somewhere and that this likely will play out in FX markets. Conversely, Melkman pushes back on Raoul’s dollar shortage thesis, arguing that the dollar is in store for a rough 2020 and makes the case for the end of U.S. equity outperformance sooner rather than later. Filmed on Wednesday July 1, 2020.
David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research joins Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, to break down his view of the economy, financial markets, and their direction over the next six to eighteen months. Rosenberg notes the success of working from home and the negative implications it has for commercial real estate – both residential and office. He points to internet infrastructure, consumer staples, healthcare, and big tech as sectors that are poised to do well over the next year and predicts that elevated personal savings rates, a reduction in capital expenditures, and a credit downgrade cycle will contribute to weaker GDP numbers for 2020. He argues that the Fed has enabled the zombification of the corporate sector though artificially low interest rates, and Rosenberg and Harrison consider whether the actions of the Fed could trigger insolvency and liquidity crises by suppressing price discovery in the market. Rosenberg also touches on Japan, Canada, and gold in the context of COVID-19 and monetary policy responses to the pandemic. Filmed on June 23, 2020. To register for Rosenberg Research’s free trial, visit https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/clients/register.
The U.S. dollar may be the most important "security" in the world and the cycle of its relative strength is a fantastic indicator of global economic health and the performance of a handful of asset classes. That's why Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners has been using this cycle to inform his outlook for decades. In today's interview, Brigden updates viewers on the dollar cycle and argues that we are entering a period of sustained dollar weakness. He examines dollar charts showing the technical support levels that are dangerously close to breaking, explores correlations with other major indicators, and breaks down the fundamental backdrop of fiscal and monetary excess that all seem to point to a dollar downturn. Filmed on June 10, 2020.
Mark Cuban -- This Feels a Lot Like the Internet Bubble
During the peak of the internet bubble, Mark Cuban famously structured a collar trade to hedge his massive exposure to Yahoo. Although Yahoo ended up blowing through the strike price on his call options, Cuban is more than satisfied with exiting that trade at the price he did while also having protected himself from a market completely disconnected from fundamentals. In this conversation with New York Times best-selling author and The Bear Traps Report founder Larry McDonald, Cuban explores the eerie similarities between that market and today’s. They also discuss the reopening for the NBA and beyond, Cuban's economic outlook amid unprecedented uncertainty, and the current political situation in the U.S. that has many asking, "When will Mark Cuban run for president?" Filmed on June 3, 2020. Find more information about Larry McDonald's work at http://www.thebeartrapsreport.com.
Gerard Minack, director of Minack Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, for a wide-ranging discussion on the future of rates, corporate earnings, and inflation. The pair analyzes the growth prospects for economies around the world, ranging from Europe to China to the U.S., and identify patterns within equity, debt, and currency markets. Minack shares his thoughts on credit quality, negative interest rates, and debt monetization as he looks forward to see the opportunities that lie ahead on the macro horizon. The pair also analyzes the Australian housing market and discusses risks such as heightening geopolitical tensions and the prospect of a second wave of COVID-19. Filmed on June 3, 2020.
The Electrodollar: Venture Capitalism, Technology, and Silicon Valley
Venture capitalist, Bill Tai, has been at the intersection of venture capitalism and innovation since the early days of Silicon Valley before the orchards were replaced with technology company corporate headquarters. He joins Real Vision's Raoul Pal to provide his uniquely qualified perspective, having experience on both the technology development and financing sides of Silicon Valley. Tai and Pal discuss data science, Tai's explanation of the "waves of innovation," and where Tai sees the next wave of innovation currently developing. Tai also talks about his early investment in Bitcoin, his view of digital assets separate from Bitcoin including CryptoKitties, digital currencies like Libra, and what he calls "the Electrodollar." Filmed on May 27, 2020.
Russell Clark, CIO of Horseman Capital Management, sits down with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to discuss the new risk-reward paradigm he sees on the horizon. Clark explains why he believes that the past decade – characterized by low growth, falling commodity prices, and a strong dollar – is coming to an end. Clark and Pal look at ratios such as gold/oil and growth/value to interest rates, and Clark suggests that a prolonged wave of commodity price appreciation could become the new normal once aggregate demand returns to pre-crisis levels. Clark also discusses China and its Belt and Road Initiative in great detail. Clark and Pal consider the potential returns of assets within emerging markets, as well as commodities such as gold and oil. Filmed on May 26, 2020.
Stephen Clapham, founder of Behind the Balance Sheet, analyzes the unique challenges that companies worldwide are facing during the ongoing pandemic. Using forensic accounting, Clapham surveys the financial landscape to identify risks and opportunities. He argues that the crisis will force companies to prioritize shoring up their balance sheet, and that as a result, stock buybacks will be diminished and return on equity across various sectors will suffer. Clapham reviews how companies have been juicing their earnings with "adjusted" figures, and he argues that this pandemic is a catalyst for a "great reset" in which executives use the ongoing crisis as an excuse to accurately tally their companies' earnings. Across a longer time horizon, Clapham expects inflationary pressures to mount as central banks continue to monetize debt and as major players in consolidated industries – such as hospitality, retail, and airlines – gain pricing power. Find out more about Stephen Clapham's work at https://www.behindthebalancesheet.com/. Filmed on May 27, 2020.
DoubleLine's Global Bond Strategy: A Global Rates and FX Masterclass
Bill Campbell is the portfolio manager responsible for the Global Bond Strategy Fund at bond behemoth DoubleLine Capital. In this interview with Real Vision's Ed Harrison, Campbell takes viewers on a tour of global rates and FX markets. Together they take a wholistic view of the European continent, examining the state of the European Union's core and periphery countries, the UK and Brexit, the opportunity outside of the EU within Germany's sphere of influence, and the important legal proceedings to watch concerning joint Euro bond issuance. As well, Campbell breaks down a host of emerging and developed markets including China, Australia, New Zealand and many more. Filmed on May 21, 2020.
Epidemics and Society: From the Black Death to the Coronavirus
The word "unprecedented" has been used frequently crisis to describe the ongoing pandemic, but Professor Frank Snowden, professor of history of medicine at Yale University and author of Epidemics and Society: From the Black Death to the Present, disagrees with this characterization. Snowden tells Pedro da Costa about how pandemics have imperiled societies, ranging from The Plague of Athens, to the Black Death, to the 1918 Spanish Flu. He traces how infections across history have shaped human destinies and identifies repeatable patterns in how they affect societies. Filmed on May 7, 2020.