Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management, joins Mike Green of Logica Capital to discuss the broader economic and financial conditions markets are experiencing amid coronavirus’ chaos. The pair discuss the current macro environment, volatility, government policy responses - both monetary and fiscal. Through their breakdown of a broad array of topics, Peters and Green tackle topics ranging from global supply chains to the merger of human and machine intelligence.
In the past few years, nobody could have predicted that a pandemic would be the catalyst sending shock waves through the entire global economy, plunging us into a bear market in record time. Some voices though have been screaming from the rooftops about the macroeconomic and structural weaknesses that left markets vulnerable to any potential disruption. One of those voices was Steen Jakobsen, CIO of Saxo Bank. In this interview with Roger Hirst, Jakobsen examines the weaknesses of a buyback-driven and debt-ridden market that have been quickly exposed by coronavirus. They also look into the future at how the crisis will affect real assets, the dollar, the banking system, and why, when all is said and done, we could see both inflation and deflation.
Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to explore what happens when a biological crisis turns into a financial crisis. They explain why they both think this liquidity crisis is far from over and why, as the deleveraging continues, the dollar will continue to reign supreme. They also examine whether shorting equities is worth the risk, how much juice is left in the bond trade, and if it’s too early to go into gold. Filmed on March 20, 2020, over Skype.
Credit Chaos and Fool's Yield: Updating the Thesis
Dan Rasmussen, the CIO and Founder of Verdad Capital Advisers, speaks with his colleague Greg Obenshain, Verdad’s director of credit, to examine the credit market sell-off over the past two months. They focus on the recent widening of spreads and other areas of financial markets hit hardest by the recent acceleration. Rasmussen asks Obenshain what the biggest factors for returns in corporate credit are, the turmoil in the credit markets has impacted the energy sector, and where they see the biggest opportunities for investors will be coming out of the crisis. They also update Verdad’s Fool’s Yield thesis that the company has been writing about since January 2020 and that Rasmussen has presented to Real Vision members in the past few months. Filmed on March 17, 2020 over Skype.
Coronavirus & Zombie Ideas: How Policymakers Respond to Crisis
Paul Krugman, Nobel laureate, PhD economist, and political commenter, joins Vincent Catalano of Stuyvesant Capital Management to discuss how coronavirus mayhem has plunged financial markets, global economies, and geopolitics into chaos. Through the lens of his new book, “Arguing with Zombies: Economics, Politics, and the Fight for a Better Future,” Krugman argues that in response to coronavirus’ economic impact, the Federal government should give financial aid to state governments, local governments, and even citizens directly. Krugman and Catalano examine the role that fiscal and monetary policy play together, the importance of leadership in crises, and the potential for the enaction of seemingly extreme policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak. Filmed on March 17, 2020 in New York.
With coronavirus wreaking havoc worldwide, it’s a perilous time to be in the market. Businesses around the world are shutting down. Equities are plummeting as investors flee to safety, and central banks, desperate to contain the financial contagion, are reaching into their arsenal to do whatever it takes. Today, Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at the ATAC Rotation Fund, sits down with Michael Venuto, chief investment officer of Toroso Investments, and explores the question that’s on everyone’s mind: Is this a fleeting moment of panic, or are we seeing the conditions for a true doomsday scenario? The pair place the massive sell-off in context, explore whether ETFs are making the violent price swings worse, and take a deep dive into the plumbing of the markets. Filmed on March 10, 2020, in New York.
Part of every financial scandal, bubble, and crash is the presence of misaligned incentive structures. The precarious position of the banking system has many investors and firms scrambling for safety - even some of the largest financial institutions in the world like Deutsche Bank. David Enrich, business investigation editor for the New York Times, joins Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to discuss his new book, “Dark Towers: Deutsche Bank, Donald Trump, and an Epic Trail of Destruction.” He traces the growth and evolution of the German bank from its founding to today. Enrich outlines the system of misaligned incentives bank executives created, examines Deutsche’s relationship with President Donald Trump, and details the unreasonable risks the bank has taken on since the 2008 financial crisis. Filmed on March 4, 2020 in New York.
In today's report, INK Research looks at Enbridge (ENB) where an insider bought last week near two-year lows. For patient investors, those lows may yet again be tested, offering potentially cheaper entry points.
Konstantin Boehmer, portfolio manager of global fixed income at McKinsey Investments, joins Ed Harrison to present his long-term macro thesis, based on emerging trends in ESG investing. Boehmer explains that his investment thesis is not about the ESG movement within the investment industry specifically, but rather it is about generational changes and lifestyle choices people are already making. Identifying patterns in business and technology cycles over the last 250 to 300 years, he argues that mankind is on the brink of another technological golden age. Along with the evolution in technology adoption he predicts, he also foresees cultural changes that will lead to actionable investment opportunities based on new priorities in how people choose to live their lives. Filmed on February 13, 2020 in Toronto.
As the coronavirus continues to wreak havoc on the markets – or so it seems – the price-action has been particularly dramatic in the energy sector. The carnage in equities has been on display to anyone paying attention, but today we’re focusing on the more opaque, but much larger, market of fixed income. Dan Zwirn, CEO and CIO of Arena Investors, is a major player in the credit space. Back by popular demand, he returns to discuss the ongoing rout in high-yield energy bonds. Zwirn analyzes the risks and opportunities he sees in leveraged loans, CLOs, private lending, and other assets within the credit universe. He also shares how he generates put optionality to hedge downside risk, while still getting paid. This interview was filmed on March 9, 2020 in New York, during one of the largest selloffs in history. To learn more about Dan Zwirn's thinking on the credit markets, check out his research report here: https://rvtv.io/2IFeX7n
Crude oil and the energy sector have both been extremely unloved in the past few years, perhaps for good reason. Still, many said the negative sentiment had gone too far and that both were strong contenders to rebound in 2020. But then came coronavirus, and now once again, energy equities and oil are out of favor. To update us on these markets that are squarely in the crosshairs of coronavirus, we have Warren Pies, chief energy strategist for Ned Davis Research. In this interview, Pies explains his no-nonsense approach to examining crude oil and the energy sector in general – providing outlooks for both. He also updates viewers on an idea you may have heard about last year from Real Vision contributors like Harris Kupperman – tankers and IMO 2020. Filmed on March 4, 2020 in New York.
Even before Ben Bernanke made the official declaration that the Fed is in fact targeting inflation, economists and governments around the world have counted on it to manage ever increasing debts. Jeff Booth, author of “The Price of Tomorrow,” argues that they are fighting an inevitably losing battle. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Booth makes the case that secular deflationary trends will be the ultimate undoing of monetary policy and technology is driving this deflation at an increasing rate. He touches on several of the most culpable technologies, the potential issues society will face as a result, and the asset classes and businesses in the best position to take advantage of this trend. Filmed on February 25, 2020 in New York.