Do higher yields actually lead to higher realized returns in private markets? Dan Rasmussen is the founder of Verdad Advisors — a firm that applies a private equity investing framework to public markets in an effort to replicate private market returns and reduce risk. He joins Real Vision to shed light on the phenomena of “fool’s yield.” Rasmussen argues that investors have been seduced by the promise of boosted returns and ignored the myriad of risks in the opaque investment space rife with deteriorating credit quality, obfuscated default rates, and a major lack of regulation. Filmed on January 16, 2020 in New York.
The Best Laid Plans: Understanding Elizabeth Warren's Economics
David Bahnsen, founder and CIO of The Bahnsen Group, takes a deep dive into the economic portfolio of Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren. Bahnsen unpacks the potential inconsistencies and contradictions of Warren's plan — with a particular focus on the consequences of a wealth tax. Filmed on January 13, 2020 in New York.
David Rosenberg returns to Real Vision to discuss the interplay between yield and price in an era of record-low interest rates. In conversation with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, he warns about the decade-long asset inflation in stocks as well as in bonds, which he perceives as a liquidity cycle not backed by fundamentals. He predicts central banks will remain dovish and reveals why he is constructive on gold, commodities, energy stocks, and a number of long-duration treasuries. Filmed on January 13, 2020, in Toronto.
Addicted to Yield: Wall Street's Dirty Little Secret
New York Times' bestselling author, former M&A investment banker, and long-time financial journalist, William Cohan, joins Ed Harrison to discuss the perilous state of U.S. credit markets, quantitative easing, junk bonds, and the ever-expanding pool of global debt. Predicated on the idea that persistently low interest rates have fueled distortions in the pricing of risk, Cohan argues that Wall Street has been developing a dangerous dependency that won't end profitably for the majority of investors. Filmed on January 7, 2020, in New York.
2020's Intersection of Markets, Macro, and Politics
Jason Trennert, chairman of Strategas Partners, sits down with Vincent Catalano to explain how Wall Street research house is looking ahead to the coming year. Trennert shares his analysis of markets, the macro landscape, and the political environment heading into the 2020 election. Filmed on December 16, 2019 in New York.
Famed economist Dr. Nouriel Roubini sits down with Real Vision's Ash Bennington to discuss the outlook for markets and the global economy in 2020 — including his prescient insight on the risks of war with Iran and the potential for a worldwide energy shock caused by conflict in the Middle East. Roubini also explores global growth, US equities & fixed income, The Fed and global central banks, and the tail risks of China trade, politics, and AI. Filmed on December 10, 2019 in New York.
Dr. William Lazonick, co-founder and president of The Academic-Industry Research Network, sits down with Real Vision's Max Wiethe to dissect the evolution of the stock market and the modern American economic system. Citing Boeing as an example, he contends that the stock market is being used to loot previously innovative corporations as insiders and outsiders alike are incentivized to push stock prices higher. He also argues that American competitiveness is being sapped as companies prioritize stock buybacks over investing in research and development, building new infrastructure, and paying off debt. Lazonick explains how this focus on short-term profits has led to unstable employment, sagging productivity growth and a loss of international competitiveness. Filmed on December 6, 2019 in New York.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, and Tracy Shuchart of family office Capital Benoit have teamed up on a new report exploring the role of monetary policy in advancing the shale industry. In this conversation with Real Vision's Ed Harrison, DiMartino Booth and Shuchart (perhaps best known as @chigirl on Twitter) examine the stunning correlation between the Fed's balance sheet and U.S. oil production, the explosion of high yield issuance in the sector, and the impending wall of maturity. Filmed on December 11, 2019 in New York. You can find more detail in their report here: https://www.realvision.com/schuchart-dimartino-booth-report.
Joel Greenblatt, managing principal and co-chief investment officer at Gotham Asset Management, sits down with the iconic Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer to talk value investing, the efficient market hypothesis, human psychology, negative interest rates, and education in the modern age. Greenblatt breaks down the simple strategy that led to his tremendous success and explains how it can be applied in today's high-tech, complicated markets. Filmed on November 6, 2019 in New York.
Jim Litinsky, founder and CEO of JHL Capital Group, joins Jim Grant to discuss how his value-based investment process has led him to increasingly creative corners of the financial markets. Litinsky and Grant examine the state of the financial world in the context of extreme monetary policy and geopolitical turbulence. Litinsky outlines his outlook for markets and details the turn of events that led his firm to own the only environmentally-friendly rare earth metals producer in the world. Filmed on November 6, 2019 in New York.
Are ultra-low interest rates putting monetary “beer goggles” on financial markets? Danielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence sits down with Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, to discuss the systemic risks to the global financial system. They deconstruct the growing challenges facing central banks. Boockvar examines the explosion of collateralized-loan-obligations (CLOs), predicts a grim future for companies with extreme debt/EBITDA ratios, and argues that the Fed’s liquidity injections have created a cycle of financial addiction to low interest rates. Filmed in New York on November 20th, 2019.