Whitney Tilson, founder and CEO of Empire Financial Research, talks to Ed Harrison about how a few big risks he took early in his career allowed him to grow his fledgling hedge fund. Heeding the advice of Warren Buffet provided him the perspective to identify the opportunities in non-consensus equities through the dotcom bubble. Tilson shares why that perspective helped develop his investment process. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on September 13, 2019 entitled “The Endless Hunt for Value.”
Value investor Whitney Tilson, founder and CEO of Empire Financial Research and the former managing partner of hedge fund Kase Capital, details his transformation from momentum trader to an investor living by Warren Buffett’s dictum that “it’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” In this conversation with Ed Harrison, Tilson explains why he sees WeWork pulling its IPO and eventually going bankrupt, lays out the case for Amazon and Fannie Mae, and speaks to the outlook for beaten-up European financials. Filmed on September 9, 2019 in New York.
Wayne Himelsein, CIO of Logica, explains to Mike Green of Thiel Macro why he believes that markets are not prepared for a likely “phase shift” from a low volatility world to one where volatility is dramatically more pronounced for an extended period of time. Himelsein has found a way to be long volatility, and has constructed a portfolio with minimal costs of carry during the bull market, but which is designed protect his clients through the next financial crisis. Filmed on August 27, 2019 in Los Angeles.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, tells Ed Harrison why he is bullish on gold, but not a “gold bug.” Chandler argues that the yellow metal is set for a breakout considering its recent bull run, rising geopolitical tensions, and the abundance of negative yielding bonds. He argues that gold will not be the basis for a new financial system, but rather will evolve as a financial alternative. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on August 19, 2019 entitled “Long Gold, Short Renminbi.”
Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset strategy at Nomura Holdings, sits down with Ed Harrison to examine the recent equity market volatility. He argues that both hedge funds and pension funds are crowding into an end-of-cycle-trade — anticipating that U.S. interest rates going to zero. McElligott runs down the contrarian bet and looks at the other side of the crowded trade, specifically mentioning Treasuries duration, and out-of-the-money options. McElligott also talks about a potential September equities drawdown. Filmed on August 26, 2019 in New York.
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, and Luke Gromen, author of Forest for the Trees, sit down for a conversation on investing in physical gold versus gold contracts. Gromen argues that the demand for physical gold has far outpaced the demand for gold contracts because of China trying to defend the value of the renminbi. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on February 11, 2019 entitled “The New Drivers of Gold Prices.”
Glenn Reynolds, chief global strategist at CreditSights, joins Vincent Catalano, CIO of Redmount Capital Partners, to talk about what an inverted yield curve actually means. Reynolds argues that recent inversion are different from those in the past, and explains why that matters to investors. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on June 27, 2019 entitled “Does the Yield Curve Matter?”
Hari Krishnan does not like ETFs. In this piece, the author and Doherty Advisors portfolio manager argues that products like the HYG give investors a false sense of security. In an adverse market environment, such products could see outsized declines, as the lack of liquidity in the underlying assets finally begins to matter. Krishnan also touches on the best way to hedge against a potential liquidity crisis. Filmed on August 7, 2019 in London.
Bradley Safalow, founder of PAA Research, presents his short thesis on pet insurance provider Trupanion. He breaks down the company’s “flawed” business model, and discusses how much downside risk he sees for the stock, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on August 13, 2019.
Stephen Auth, CIO of Federated Global Equities, joins Ed Harrison to discuss the timing of his career and the 1980s bull market. Auth details his introduction to financial markets, an opportunity that he took advantage of during the “Wild West of Wall Street,” and how he staked out his reputation as a bull. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on July 31, 2019 entitled, “Ignore the Bond Market?”
Diego Parrilla, managing partner at Quadriga Asset Partners, joins Real Vision to talk about the relationship between the bubbles and anti-bubbles. He describes how misconceptions such as the market’s faith in central banks and the desperate search for yield amplify both phenomena. Parilla then reveals the biggest risk to the global financial system, his timeline for the endgame, and how investors can position defensively. Filmed on August 7, 2019 in London.