Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, is joined by Bob Treue, founder of Barnegat Fund Management, to put on a clinic of idea generation. Due to its consistently high returns, Treue’s fund is ranked by Bloomberg as the world’s #1 fixed-income arbitrage fund. Treue shares with Hendry his process for consistent success and recounts some several of his grand-slam trades -- from arbitraging the spread between U.S. Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts to relative value plays on the yield curve for U.K gilts. Hugh Hendry can be found on HughHendry.com, on Instagram and Youtube as @hughhendryofficial, as well as on Twitter at @hendry_hugh.
Ben Inker -- Jeremy Grantham's Heir Apparent on the Future of Asset Allocation
Everyone knows Jeremy Grantham as the face of GMO, the behemoth money manager that has become legendary for its work on asset allocation, but Ben Inker, head of asset allocation at GMO since 1998, seems to be next in line for the throne. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Inker helps viewers make sense of the post-COVID investment landscape from the perspective of a major asset allocator. Together they discuss everything from the future of the 60/40 portfolio to bonds as an asset class in this new low rate world. They also dig in to US vs. non-US assets, the trouble with popular ex-post facto explanations for FAANG outperformance and narrative bubbles like Tesla, and why the financial sector can be so difficult to value. Filmed on September 21, 2020.
Reinventing the Monetary System with Decentralized Finance
Alex Saunders, CEO and founder of Nugget’s News, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to explain the reinvention of the monetary system through new crypto payments systems based on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stable coins. He tells Raoul the story of his introduction into the crypto world. Saunders also breaks down the expansion of global e-commerce through the explosive growth of decentralized finance. Filmed on September 15, 2020.
Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, gets a soup-to-nuts overview of the commercial real estate industry from Deloitte’s Jim Berry, US Real Estate Leader. He shares an in-depth analysis of the rapid impact of Covid-19 on subsectors of commercial real estate: residential, industrial, office, retail, and hospitality. Filmed on September 17, 2020.
Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, kicks off an exciting two weeks of content by explaining why we are endeavoring to answer the ultimate question, “has everything changed?” As well, Pal switches hats into his role as head of GMI to update viewers on his "unfolding" thesis and his own view on the question, “has everything changed?” He argues that the insolvency phase is being signaled by banks, BBB equities, and bond yields while tech stocks are stubbornly stuck in the hope phase, which has morphed into a dangerous speculation phase. He also runs through his outlook for the roster of major global asset classes and explains why he thinks Bitcoin is “the world’s best trade.” Filmed on September 17, 2020.
Private Credit and the Death Knell of the 60/40 Portfolio
Udayan Mitra, former head of investments at Altera Investments, joins Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss the state of fixed income investing in a world with near-zero interest rates. Mitra argues that yield hunger will force investors further into alternative credit strategies. Mitra lays out the various players in this space – private equity and credit funds, direct lending firms, as well as special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). Mitra then tells Harrison about how higher yields come at the price of reduced liquidity, and the pair weigh this trade-off. Lastly, Mitra shares specific opportunities and risks he sees in this space. Filmed on September 15, 2020.
Are bonds still effective portfolio diversifiers? What can the history of asset-backed securities tell us about their future? These are questions that Tom Rutledge, fixed income strategist at Magnetar Capital, explores alongside Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison. Rutledge outlines the myriad array of problems facing fixed-income investors -- from liquidity constraints to finding yield pick-ups as yields continue to decline. He then describes specific opportunities he sees in industries ranging from hospitality to tech. Filmed on September 3, 2020. Click here for Rutledge’s report, “Specialty Finance: An Investor’s History”: https://rvtv.io/2Rt9jtE
For weeks leading up to the recent dramatic sell-off, the VIX and other measures of equity volatility like the VXN were rising as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite were humming along higher and higher. To long vol traders like Matt Rowe, CIO of Headwaters Solutions, this was a huge tell that something was looming on the horizon. Rowe explains how he prepares his portfolio for these types of events, why mini volatility events can be much more profitable for long vol traders than the market meltdown we saw in March, and also explains why chasing an expanding vol market can be a fatal error. As well, he gives insight into market positioning going into the event, the chances that this mini event could turn into something much larger, and attempts to answer the ultimate question of, “what is the strike of the Fed put?” should this sell-off continue. Filmed on September 4, 2020.
Generally, dividend stocks can be expected to have a tough time in an inflationary G-economy environment. On August 27th in the INK morning report, we looked at iA Financial (IAG) which could do relatively well in a G-economy as dividend payers go thanks to its capital markets exposure. If you are not currently a member, join us for access to INK Reports and let the insiders guide you towards opportunity.
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, is joined by Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial to discuss the most pressing issues on the macro horizon. After exploring whether quantitative easing (QE) and low rates are inflationary or deflationary, Johnson and Van Metre take a deep dive into the plumbing of the Treasury market and specifically the operations of the Fed's FOMC. Van Metre explains why he believes the Fed's policies have actually caused banks to tighten their lending standards rather than loosen them as the Fed intended. The pair then take a look at swap lines and the Eurodollar funding market as well as the effect a credit contraction would have on the U.S. dollar. Lastly, Van Metre talks about his Real Vision journey and how the knowledge he’s gained has helped him as an investor as well as a financial advisor. Filmed on August 24, 2020. For additional charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3gARHG7
Generally, dividend stocks can be expected to have a tough time in an inflationary G-economy environment. Today, INK Research takes a look at iA Financial (IAG) which could do relatively well in a G-economy as dividend payers go thanks to its capital markets exposure.
Bitcoin and Time: The Economics of Absolute Scarcity
Robert Breedlove, CEO and CIO of Parallax Digital, argues that only two things in the universe are absolutely scarce – time and bitcoin. Until the invention of bitcoin, Breedlove says that gold had been the best monetary technology to transfer the value of time, but it is imperfect because it isn’t absolutely scarce. Bitcoin’s absolute scarcity, on the other hand, makes it the perfect monetary technology. He breaks down why the last two centuries of success for paper money is less clear cut than many people understand. Breedlove also discusses the economic theory of the value of time, the relationship between bitcoin and gold, and how bitcoin’s securability could impact monetary policy. Filmed on August 17, 2020.