Is a global systemic banking crisis looming? Emil Kalinowski, host of Eurodollar University, provides color on several countries that have tripped the financial crisis circuit. Using BIS data and his own research, Kalinowski explains why a massive deleveraging campaign in countries’ private debt sectors is needed to avoid a “Fourth Turning” era of destruction in the global economy. Despite crisis indicators arising in several highly stable and developed countries, the BIS data provides a starting point to outline the warning signs of when global household sectors and debt servicing ratios go haywire. Interviewed by Maggie Lake on October 4, 2021.
Merger arbitrage is one of the *most* lucrative yet dangerous endeavors on Wall Street. The strategy appears enticingly simple: buying the stocks of companies that are going to be acquired by other companies, with the hope of profiting when the merger closes. Yet in practice, the undertaking can present the would-be arbitrageur with disastrous losses should the deal not go through. Success in merger arbitrage hinges on ascertaining whether or not the deal will close, and in this interview, Deepak Gurnani, founder and managing partner at Versor Investments, shares his rigorous systematic merger arbitrage framework for estimating that critical probability. Gurnani also shows how to use his quantitative tools to augment and de-risk global macro investment strategies by exploiting asset return dispersion within stocks, bonds, and commodities. Interviewed by Real Vision’s Jack Farley.
Sep 28, 2021
Ethereum 2.0 and Its Developments Explained
Ryan Berckmans, investor and Ethereum community member, joins to discuss. Berckmans provides us with a deep dive into the London Hard Fork and EIP 1559, which are changing the structure behind gas fees on the network. He also lays out the timeline and describes the many hurdles that are involved in Ethereum’s transition to phase 2.0, where the network will utilize a proof-of-stake consensus algorithm. While this shift will undoubtedly make Ethereum more scalable, will it have negative implications for the chain’s security and validity? Tune in for Berckmans’ explanation. Interviewed by Ash Bennington on September 9, 2021.
Jeff Snider: Understanding the Shadow Banking System
Jeff Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investments comes back for Round 2 with Real Vision's Maggie Lake to give us a master class in money supply and explain why central banks are doomed to fail when it comes to reviving global growth. He also weighs in on China's Evergrande problem and whether cryptocurrencies are the answer to our current economic woes. Filmed on September 23, 2021.
Sep 20, 2021
Interoperability and Micropayments Are the Internet's Future
If there is an original sin of the internet, Stefan Thomas, co-founder of Interledger and CEO & founder of Coil, would describe it as the development of business models that favored centralized monetization models, which led to troublesome payment systems for both users and content creators. As the emergence of blockchain technology offers an alternative to this, he joins Santiago Velez, co-founder and division lead of R&D at Block Digital Corporation, to outline the importance of interoperability between blockchains and micropayments. Those key features are what Thomas believes will remedy systemic issues and centralization which have taken hold of the modern-day internet. Filmed on September 15, 2021.
Does the world truly need central banks? And what would a financial system without central banking look like? This is the question that Dylan Grice, co-founder of Calderwood Capital, and George Selgin, director at the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, explore in this in-depth, peer-to-peer conversation. Together, they survey historical examples of "free banking," examine key turning points in the development of the monetary system as it's known today, and imagine its potential future. Filmed on September 7, 2021.
Sep 07, 2021
The Play-To-Earn Revolution in Gaming
With Axie Infinity paving the way, Anil Lulla, COO at Delphi Digital; Yan Liberman, managing partner at Delphi Digital; Jeffrey Zirlin, co-founder of Axie Infinity; and Gabby Dizon, CEO and co-founder of Yield Guild Games, join to discuss the new trend taking over the metaverse, which is expanding at a rapid pace. One of the latest developments is the play-to-earn gaming model, in which players can enjoy a video game while earning actual income. In the case of the Philippines, some players earn more than the minimum wage. Dizon and Zirlin were early pioneers in the space while Lulla and Liberman were early investors who recognized the potential. Filmed on August 23, 2021.
Offsetting Interest Rate Risk with Options and Long Vol
After over a decade of massive deflationary forces, the tides may be turning as various demographic and political factors align. How can fixed income investors hedge against inflation and interest rate risk? Nancy Davis, CIO of Quadratic Capital, shares her insights with Larry McDonald, New York Times best selling author and founder of The Bear Traps Report, by examining the inadequacies of existing measures of inflation and how her IVOL ETF implements optionality and long volatility to mitigate potential drawdowns in fixed income investments. Filmed on August 25, 2021.
Aug 24, 2021
Asia's Rapidly Evolving Monetary Landscape
International collaboration, CBDCs on the rise, and the line between commercial and central banks blurring, Charles d'Haussy, author of "Block Kong" and managing director at ConsenSys, joins to discuss. As the former head of Fintech for the government of Hong Kong, d'Haussy has worked closely with several governments and central banks. He lends us an insider perspective into financial developments within the blackbox of China, specifically their work on the digital Yuan as well as broader implications of mass CBDC adoption worldwide. He sees tremendous benefits to such adoption, while addressing common concerns like privacy. He also touches on the Tether controversy within the context of this interesting sector that has arisen out of crypto—"Centralized DeFi," as d'Haussy calls it. Interviewed by Ash Bennington on August 11, 2021.
Brent Johnson and Steven Van Metre: The Unappreciated Risk in the System
In this free-flowing conversation, Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, and Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial revisit their theses and walk through why they remain steadfast in their conclusions about the fate of the U.S. dollar and the monetary system that they believe has yet to materialize. Because they perceive risk in the system that they see as unappreciated by the market, they explain why their extended time horizons are a key factor in the way that they are positioning themselves. Johnson and Van Metre also discuss the reasons that form the foundation of their thesis and their convictions—the historical pattern of fiat currencies' persistence, the credit-based design of the current monetary system, and the global interests in protecting the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. Filmed on August 17, 2021.
For the past decade, many investors who have bought stock indices via passive allocation have done better than those who sought returns via active management. Anneka Treon, managing director and head of the Competence Center at Van Lanschot Kempen, argues that the days of passive investing’s overperformance are soon – if not already – over. Treon explains that, since the global economy has emerged from a short and steep recession, investors can no longer rely on central banks' ability to support asset prices. Moreover, Treon continues, since inflation will prove to be persistent rather than transitory, investors will eventually balk at sovereign bonds such as U.S. Treasuries just as they did in February and March of this year. In this environment, Treon argues that companies with true pricing power will offer investors the ultimate protection from hot and sticky inflation. Interviewed by Jack Farley on August 15, 2021.