Foreign Exchange

Strategies and developments relating to currencies and the foreign exchange markets

Real Vision Sep 23, 2019
European Banks: Value Play or Value Trap?
Is there a case for buying beaten-down European bank stocks? AK explains what’s been going wrong, and examines whether there’s now a case for taking a second look.
Real Vision Sep 19, 2019
The European Conundrum
Andreas Steno Larsen, joint head of macro strategy at Nordea Markets, sits down with Roger Hirst to discuss the European banking system’s current predicament and the implications of the ECB’s recent announcement of “QE Eternity.” He runs down the risks facing Europe to explain his forecast for what the next five years will look like for the Eurozone. Steno Larsen also shares his thesis regarding whether central banks can stay one step ahead of the markets. Filmed on September 13, 2019 in London.
Real Vision Sep 18, 2019
China's Uncertain Currency Situation
Russell Clark of Horseman Capital explains to Roger Hirst why the Chinese are in a sticky currency situation. Clark argues that as the global economy sputters and the trade war rages on, there is a risk that the Chinese authorities will be pushed to further devalue the renminbi. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on July 11, 2019 entitled “Will Chinese Devaluation Be the Black Swan.”
Real Vision Sep 16, 2019
How to Save the Euro
Thomas Mayer, founder and managing director of the Flossbach von Storch Research Institute, speaks to Ed Harrison about the impact that the creation of the European Union has had on the precarious economic conditions in Europe. Mayer outlines the unsustainable dynamic of the cross-border bank deposits between the central banks of EU member states like Germany and Italy. He also makes the argument that digitalizing the euro might be the solution to the problems facing Europe’s monetary union. Filmed on August 30, 2019 in Cologne, Germany. Learn more about Macro Insiders here: http://www.realvision.com/macro-insiders
Real Vision Sep 12, 2019
The Yield Curve: Shredding the Slope
In his Real Vision debut, Mark Orsley, head of macro strategy at Prism FP, explains why the increasingly crowded bet on a steepening yield curve trade might work over the short-term. He adds, however, that over long-term, the risk-reward of an investment based on interest rates’ “convergence to zero” could make sense as well. Orsley puts his macro view in the context of what he sees as a dovish Fed pivot and deteriorating economic fundamentals in the U.S. Filmed on September 10, 2019 in New York.
Real Vision Sep 12, 2019
Black Swans, Gold, and Anti-Gold
Rick Rule, president and CEO of Sprott US Holdings, talks about how gold behaves in a liquidity or solvency crisis. Rule argues that gold and gold stocks do not behave as we might expect when trust suddenly evaporates from a system after a traumatic financial event. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on November 27, 2018 entitled “The Golden Portfolio Hedge.”
Real Vision Sep 09, 2019
A Boring Trade Idea
Chad Morganlander of Washington Crossing Advisors provides an update on his economic view and discuss why “boring” companies look attractive in the current environment. In this interview with Alex Rosenberg, Morganlander highlights the positive attributes of one particular company, Hormel Foods, and reviews why its shares should outperform over the next year. Filmed on September 6, 2019.
Real Vision Sep 04, 2019
Trump and the Fed's Trillion Dollar Decision
David Stockman, the former director of the Office of Management and Budget under Ronald Reagan, argues that the Fed’s decision to rapidly expand its balance sheet in response to the financial crisis set the table for a breakdown in global economics and politics. Stockman argues that the knock-on effects from the Fed’s decade-old decision could have significant consequences. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on February 25, 2019 entitled “The Economic Danger Posed by Trump.”
Real Vision Aug 30, 2019
Three Trades for Fall
Coming off of an unusually volatile summer, Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group provides an overview of recent market moves and forecasts what lies ahead in September. He breaks down the options markets for the S&P 500, before moving on to two major currency pairs. Filmed on August 28, 2019 in Denver.
Real Vision Aug 29, 2019
The Late-Cycle Contrarian
Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset strategy at Nomura Holdings, sits down with Ed Harrison to examine the recent equity market volatility. He argues that both hedge funds and pension funds are crowding into an end-of-cycle-trade — anticipating that U.S. interest rates going to zero. McElligott runs down the contrarian bet and looks at the other side of the crowded trade, specifically mentioning Treasuries duration, and out-of-the-money options. McElligott also talks about a potential September equities drawdown. Filmed on August 26, 2019 in New York.
Real Vision Aug 19, 2019
Long Gold, Short Renminbi
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, returns to Real Vision with a warning that the dollar appears to be topping out. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Chandler also touches on the euro, the British pound, and the overall macro factors he sees driving markets today. He also provides his thesis for going long gold, and short the Chinese renminbi. Filmed on August 13, 2019 in New York.
Real Vision Aug 19, 2019
From Brooklyn to Wall Street
John Taylor of Taylor Global Vision talks about his introduction to finance through foreign exchange while at school in Switzerland. Armed with his Brooklyn-bred street smarts, Taylor shares the stories of his first successful trade and how he became an expert forecasting market cycles. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on February 13, 2019 entitled, “The Cycles of Success.”