Reinventing the Monetary System with Decentralized Finance
Alex Saunders, CEO and founder of Nugget’s News, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to explain the reinvention of the monetary system through new crypto payments systems based on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stable coins. He tells Raoul the story of his introduction into the crypto world. Saunders also breaks down the expansion of global e-commerce through the explosive growth of decentralized finance. Filmed on September 15, 2020.
Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, kicks off an exciting two weeks of content by explaining why we are endeavoring to answer the ultimate question, “has everything changed?” As well, Pal switches hats into his role as head of GMI to update viewers on his "unfolding" thesis and his own view on the question, “has everything changed?” He argues that the insolvency phase is being signaled by banks, BBB equities, and bond yields while tech stocks are stubbornly stuck in the hope phase, which has morphed into a dangerous speculation phase. He also runs through his outlook for the roster of major global asset classes and explains why he thinks Bitcoin is “the world’s best trade.” Filmed on September 17, 2020.
Why China Will Avoid Crisis by Any Means Necessary
After years living abroad in China and Vietnam, professor Chris Balding has returned to the U.S. because of concerns for his safety due to his role in exposing the data collection operations of Shenzen Zhenhua Data Technology. In this interview with Michael Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Balding lays out the initial findings from his expository research and updates viewers on the current state of affairs in China. Together they examine geopolitical tensions between China and the rest of Asia as well as China’s current relationship status with Europe and Russia. They also help viewers make sense of what is happening on the Chinese homefront and the macro factors driving capital flows into the country. Filmed on September 15, 2020. More information about the Chinese data gathering operation described in the interview can be found here: https://rvtv.io/33Cmxd7 and https://rvtv.io/3ktuDvg
Juliette Declercq, founder of JDI Research, believes that September is shaping up to be the biggest month of the year for macro. Using her basket of tested macro indicators, Declercq helps viewers make sense of the current macro environment and argues that reflation and the recovery are still very much underway. She also breaks down the potential for a more benign second wave of COVID, her current outlook for both fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a few trades and assets that she likes in the current environment. Filmed on September 11, 2020.
Peter Borish, president of Computer Trading Corporation and long-time partner of Paul Tudor Jones, sits down with former Point72 head performance coach, Dr. Gio Valiante, to get at the heart of what it takes to not only succeed in the business of trading, but to thrive and excel. Since his storied early career successfully calling and the profiting from the 1987 crash and trading alongside PTJ, Borish has flourished mentoring and developing new trading talent. Together these extremely successful coaches put forward their lists of the top traits and behaviors that keep popping in the best traders they work with. Borish also comments on the importance of philanthropy and his own work with Robin Hood and argues that in these unprecedented times, quants and computers are in for a rude awakening as massive paradigm shifts have thrown decades of macro data and back testing out the window. Filmed on September 10, 2020.
Michael Nicoletos, CIO and co-founder of Appletree Capital, is joined by John Floyd, head of macro strategies at Record Currency Management, to analyze the mounting pressures on the Turkish Lira as well as other emerging market (EM) currencies. Floyd breaks down his bearish thesis on the Turkish Lira (TRY), citing Turkey's deeply negative real rates, dwindling FX reserves, and a banking sector deeply indebted to foreign creditors on a dollar- or euro-denominated basis. Floyd and Nicoletos then discuss the knock-on effects of a Turkish Lira collapse as so many European banks (especially Spanish ones) are heavily exposed to Turkey. Lastly, Floyd shares with Nicoletos the various trades to express this view. Filmed on September 9, 2020. For John Floyd's report, click here: https://rvtv.io/3bMJSMN
Keith Dicker, founder and CIO of IceCap Asset Management, joins Real Vision to give a strategic overview of the U.S. Dollar. Dicker breaks down the Eurodollar system to analyze the pressures on non-dollar currencies: negative rates, extreme debt borrowings, and government deficits spiraling out of control. Dicker takes a look at what is in store for the Turkish Lira as well as other emerging market currencies and discusses the fate of the DXY currencies as well. Dicker then provides a guidepost for how investors can position themselves to take advantage of asymmetric opportunities. Filmed on September 8, 2020. For additional charts from Dicker's long dollar fund (which he co-manages with Brent Johnson), click here: http://icecapassetmanagement.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2020.05.21-Special-Presentation-Santiago-IceCap.pdf
If you haven’t been living under a rock, you’ve probably heard the narrative that cities are dead and that white collar workers, now unburdened by the ability to work from home, are fleeing to the suburbs as fast as they can. Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at Housing Wire, explains to Real Vision’s Ash Bennington why it is nothing more than an interesting narrative. He goes on to add that, aside from a few pockets in New York and San Francisco, the relative strength in the suburban housing market is being driven by the only factors that matter -- demographics and mortgage rates. Bennington and Mohtashami also drill down on the relationship between bond yields and mortgage rates and the knock-on effects into housing demand that you could see depending on different scenarios for those rates. Filmed on August 26, 2020.
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, is joined by Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial to discuss the most pressing issues on the macro horizon. After exploring whether quantitative easing (QE) and low rates are inflationary or deflationary, Johnson and Van Metre take a deep dive into the plumbing of the Treasury market and specifically the operations of the Fed's FOMC. Van Metre explains why he believes the Fed's policies have actually caused banks to tighten their lending standards rather than loosen them as the Fed intended. The pair then take a look at swap lines and the Eurodollar funding market as well as the effect a credit contraction would have on the U.S. dollar. Lastly, Van Metre talks about his Real Vision journey and how the knowledge he’s gained has helped him as an investor as well as a financial advisor. Filmed on August 24, 2020. For additional charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3gARHG7
Fleckenstein and Rule: Miners Are a Call on Unintended Fed Policy
Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital, sits down with Rick Rule, president and CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc., to talk about the macro drivers of the recent precious metals bull market and what to look for when investing in miners. Using their decades of experience in the industry, Rule and Fleckenstein explain why regardless of a specific price target and because precious metals investments as a percentage of the total market for savings and investments is far below the average over the past 50 years, reversion to the mean has precious metals exposed investments poised to march higher. Rule provides his explanation as to why Warren Buffet, who has called gold a pet rock in the past, has recently allocated a portion of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio in Barrick Gold Corporation. Fleckenstein argues that there is a problem with using traditional NAV-based analysis and provides viewers with strategies to find hidden value when analyzing miners and to avoid the pitfalls that many investors fall victim to when investing in the space. Filmed on August 19, 2020.
The Unwinding: Gold, The Credit Cycle, and the Monetary System
History is often overlooked and misunderstood, especially financial history. Dan Oliver of Myrmikan Capital, LLC and Simon Mikhailovich, managing director of The Bullion Reserve, explain the role of gold and the credit cycle through history, comparing today to the credit crises that have occurred roughly every 100 years since the 1720's – the Mississippi Bubble in France, Europe's reckoning with a post-Napoleon order in the 1820's, and the post-World War I calamities of the 1920's and 1930's. Using history to set the table for their discussion of gold, central banking, and the credit cycle, Dan and Simon break down how these forces push the monetary system down the dangerous "goat path" towards unwinding. Despite the seemingly dour circumstances, Oliver and Mikhailovich explain why there is still hope for wealth preservation and even incredible returns for those investors who choose not to continue down the "goat path." Filmed on August 18, 2020.
In the coronavirus pandemic, many companies have seen their revenue streams vanish and their balance sheets implode. How can businesses survive in the brave new world of COVID-19? This is the question that Tony Alvarez III, European Practice Leader at Alvarez and Marsal LP, and James Rasteh, CIO and Founder of Coast Capital, seek to answer in their exploration into business restructuring. Alvarez and Rasteh explore how companies can adapt, survive, and undergo productive change. Alvarez shares a glimpse into the world of business restructuring few else can offer, as he tells Rasteh about the many times he and his firm have rescued companies from the brink of bankruptcy. Filmed on August 10, 2020.