Real Vision

Real Vision Jul 01, 2022
Risk Management Is the Most Important Thing
The major U.S. equity indexes edged into positive territory after opening in the red, even as a measure of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 53 in June from 56.1 in May, a two-year low, and the latest update to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow gauge came in at negative 2.1% on an annualized basis. Not only is a U.S. recession more likely than a soft landing; we may already be in one. “I’m keeping an open mind, and if we do have a recession it will produce an even more powerful rally, as bull markets are born out of recessions," says Mark Ritchie II. Ritchie II, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about financial markets, the global economy, and capital preservation. We also hear from Mark Minervini about diversified portfolios in a bear market versus a bull market. And we drop in on an exclusive interview between Ash and CEO Mark Lamb about CoinFLEX’s struggle for survival amid the crypto downturn. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AeGKaR. Watch the full conversation featuring Mark Minervini, Jared Dillian, and Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3OAxAcR. Watch Ash’s interview with Mark Lamb here: https://rvtv.io/3yw0ghH.
Real Vision Jul 01, 2022
Doomberg Explains: Understanding the Complex Web of Commodities
What does a chemical factory shutdown in Germany mean for the world economy? What’s the likely outcome of President Biden’s upcoming visit with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia? In an interview with Tony Greer of TG Macro, Doomberg does a deep dive into the delicate underpinnings of the global energy market. A handful of facilities are crucial to the efficient function of global manufacturing, explains Doomberg, and a series of shutdowns could have dire implications for investors. Although commodity prices have retreated, the failure to address long-term infrastructure issues will continue to constrict production and put upward pressure on prices, adds Greer. Recorded on June 27, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 30, 2022
How Do You Solve a Problem Like Stagflation?
Stocks are sliding and bonds are rallying, as investors react to accumulating evidence that inflation will persist even though the economy is slowing down. There’s a word for that kind of scenario: stagflation. “The Fed is facing one of the worst predicaments of its existence,” tweeted Tavi Costa. “The US economy simply cannot handle the Fed’s continued monetary tightening." Costa, a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about the confluence of three macro extremes. We also hear from Hari Krishnan about how there may not be a solution for the Federal Reserve’s dilemma. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AklJeO. Watch the full conversation featuring Hari Krishnan and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QUWOnVhttps://rvtv.io/3xYSJG.
Jun 30, 2022
NFT.NYC Recap: Community Is As Strong As Ever
Undeterred by recent market turmoil, thousands of Web3 enthusiasts gathered in New York City for the fourth annual NFT.NYC Conference. The Real Vision team spoke to founders, builders, investors, and creators about the downturn’s impact on the community. If anything, this in-person event galvanized participants. With the NFT ecosystem evolving and NFT use-cases proliferating, one thing is certain: The future of technology is here. That’s reflected not only in the art world and the entertainment industry but by mainstream financial markets as well. As the intel we gathered reveals, this is an industry very much still in the making, despite this bear market. Recorded June 21-24, 2022.
Jun 30, 2022
When Will Bitcoin Form a Bottom?
Rekt Capital, a technical analyst and a crypto trader, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to study Bitcoin’s history via charts and to develop a better picture of when and how a bottom might be forming. Indeed, although Rekt says Bitcoin is currently oversold from a technical perspective, the bottom may still be weeks if not months out. This is one you won't want to miss for all that juicy price-action analysis. Recorded on June 28, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 30, 2022
The Fed Has Chosen Its Horn
Jerome Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s steadfast commitment to raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet. But investors are increasingly skeptical the central bank can stay the course in the face of a slowing economy. Hari Krishnan, the head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital Management, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the Scylla of inflation, the Charybdis of recession, and the possibility the Fed has no way out of this dilemma. Krishnan notes that there are critical time-lag differentials between Fed actions to control inflation and Fed actions to stimulate growth. And that makes a sharper economic downturn more likely, even with a pause in the Fed’s tightening program, as fed funds futures markets are currently signaling. Recorded on June 27, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 29, 2022
When Rates Rise, Growth Slows
U.S. gross domestic product contracted by 1.6% on an annualized basis during the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s final estimate, as consumer spending was weaker than originally forecast. The sense we’re heading for recession was heightened when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said today at a European Central Bank forum that policymakers won’t let the economy slip into a "higher inflation regime" even if it means raising interest rates to levels that put growth at risk. He maintains U.S. household finances remain strong. “The Fed needs you to capitulate on summer travel in order for inflation to get under control,” says 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale. Darius joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about receding inflation fear and rising recession risk. We also hear from Francis Gannon about how higher interest rates are driving a shift in market focus. And we share a segment from today’s Crypto Unwrapped episode on continuing upheaval in the crypto market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ntyqa7. Watch the full conversation featuring Francis Gannon here: https://rvtv.io/3QUWOnV. Watch the full Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Tascha Che, Katie Talati, and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3NufQyO.
Real Vision Jun 29, 2022
Shortcut: The Glowing Promise of the Uranium Trade
We’ve compiled key takes from Maggie Lake’s conversation with Nick Lawson, CEO of advisory firm Ocean Wall about the potential comeback for uranium and how to position for it.
Jun 29, 2022
An EU Lawmaker Shares Her Notes on Crypto Regulation
Regulating a complex ecosystem like cryptocurrency involves questions of status within the existing financial and monetary infrastructure, market stability, and state sovereignty. Eva Kaili, the Vice-President of the European Parliament, joins Michael Nicoletos, a macro investor, for an in-depth conversation about the framework for regulation and oversight of cryptocurrency in the European Union. Among issues left to be resolved are whether to include NFTs in the proposed rules; how to regulate stablecoins; the supervision of large crypto-asset service providers; anti-money laundering clauses; and the environmental impact of blockchain technology. Recorded on June 24, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 28, 2022
What Does Commodity Price Action Tell Us About the Economy?
The S&P 500 is down nearly 18% year to date, its worst first-half performance since 1970. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in 16 months in June, as inflation continues to extract its due. And Google searches for "recession" have reached a new high, according to Andreas Steno Larsen. “Typically,” he adds, “that only happens during actual recessions. Are we already in one, or is the risk overstated by now?” The fear of slowing growth now supplanting the fear of inflation, markets have fresh fuel to reprice assets across the risk spectrum. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Ash Bennington to talk about inflation, recession, and recent price action, including the particular pressure on convertible bonds. We also hear from Michael Gayed about an emerging counter-trend trade based on a correction for crude oil and commodities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3u7AgGV. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Gayed here: https://rvtv.io/3nnJefp.
Jun 28, 2022
What It's Like To Be an Emerging NFT Artist
How does an artist who got into NFTs only a year ago get featured on OpenSea twice and land a spot on the NFT NYC billboard? Step into the mind of up-and-coming NFT artist Camille Chiang as she talks about how she bootstrapped her way to success in the industry. Her collection, "WACK!," is an homage to her childhood in Hong Kong and is inspired by the everyday people she meets. In conversation with Matthew Kotek, Camille shares her plan to expand the "WACK!" brand into a fashion line. The recent bear market has not affected her timeline. Camille views this downturn as necessary to weed out artists simply riding the hype wave, and she hopes only creators driven by long-term vision will remain. Recorded on June 21, 2022.
Real Vision Jun 28, 2022
It's All About the Business Cycle
Storm clouds are gathering, with rampant inflation driving a historic monetary tightening cycle that threatens economic growth while war rages in Eastern Europe. Are we now on course for a deflationary bust? Doubts about its abilities abound. But investors should be prepared for the outside possibility that the Federal Reserve nails the landing, says Michael Gayed. With cracks starting to show in the commodities market, the author of The Lead-Lag Report expresses some doubts about the sector, warning of the near-religious fervor that fuels its booms. Gayed, the chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, shares his brand of shrewd, contrarian perspectives with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen. Amid tempests like these, keeping your ship steady and sailing in the right direction is a challenge. But the business cycle is inevitable. And it’s nearly impossible to time it perfectly. Recorded on June 24, 2022.