You don’t hear “diversification” and “long volatility” often in the same sentence. Yet, their pairing is exactly what Jason Buck, CIO of Mutiny Fund, advocates as essential for all investors seeking to add long volatility exposure to their portfolios. Alongside Hari Krishnan, fund manager at Doherty Advisors, Buck advocates for an “ensemble” approach to anti-fragility. Buck and Krishnan rigorously examine the benefits of different long vol strategies, such as options, shorting indices, and relative value trades on the VIX. Krishnan explains his quantitative framework for evaluating options, and gives in-depth option trading insights based on their tenor and “moneyness.” Buck and Krishnan discuss how a diversified approach to long volatility can heighten the benefits of long vol exposure, especially during “Minsky Moments” such as coronavirus pandemic markets have been experiencing since earlier this year. Filmed on July 7, 2020.
In many ways, China is at the center of the public health and economic crisis that has gripped the entire world for most of 2020, but recently more focus has been placed on the U.S. and Europe. George Magnus, research associate for the China Centre at Oxford University, helps viewers revert their gaze back towards the global superpower sized elephant in the room. Together with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, Magnus examines the current state of affairs for China from the perspective of the western countries left with a bad taste in their mouths after China’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, but also from the internal perspective of a country looking to restart its growth engine and position itself for a world with fewer allies and a new economy with less reliance on traditional global trade partners. In addition, they examine the health of the Chinese banking system, the return of credit growth in China, and the potential for western sanctions and the outright weaponization of the U.S. dollar. Filmed on July 6, 2020.
Canada's junior mining industry is in a bull market. However, even as investors south of the border are so far shrugging off COVID-19 risks, junior mining investors need to keep an eye out for where the coronavirus is threatening business activity. INK Research has an example in today's report.
The Highest Quality Macro Trades and the Impending End of U.S. Outperformance
Ben Melkman, CEO and founder of Light Sky Macro, returns to discuss the biggest macro themes and trades on the horizon with Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal. In this wide-ranging discussion, they examine everything from COVID and the effects of its handling by the U.S. and Europe to the probability of fiscal union in Europe as well as the potential outcomes of the U.S. election. Melkman and Pal agree that the combination of unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy has to have unwanted consequences somewhere and that this likely will play out in FX markets. Conversely, Melkman pushes back on Raoul’s dollar shortage thesis, arguing that the dollar is in store for a rough 2020 and makes the case for the end of U.S. equity outperformance sooner rather than later. Filmed on Wednesday July 1, 2020.
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, joins Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy for an in-depth discussion on the fate of the world's most important currency: the U.S. dollar. Johnson gives a strategic update on his "Dollar Milkshake" thesis and explains his bullish long-term view of the dollar, based on the outstanding glut of dollar-denominated debt. Alden considers this analysis and introduces a less bullish view, which she bases on the U.S.'s high trade deficit and negative net international investment position (NIIP). Using many detailed charts, Alden and Johnson compare their ideas and reach something of a synthesis between their two views. The pair also reflect on the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, and they also explore whether a move to a multipolar currency world is possible. Filmed on June 16, 2020.