In the past few years, nobody could have predicted that a pandemic would be the catalyst sending shock waves through the entire global economy, plunging us into a bear market in record time. Some voices though have been screaming from the rooftops about the macroeconomic and structural weaknesses that left markets vulnerable to any potential disruption. One of those voices was Steen Jakobsen, CIO of Saxo Bank. In this interview with Roger Hirst, Jakobsen examines the weaknesses of a buyback-driven and debt-ridden market that have been quickly exposed by coronavirus. They also look into the future at how the crisis will affect real assets, the dollar, the banking system, and why, when all is said and done, we could see both inflation and deflation.
Kiril Sokoloff, chairman and founder of 13D Global Strategy and Research, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and its long-term consequences on monetary policy, investing, and geopolitics. Pal and Sokoloff analyze how a protracted quarantine might slow economic activity to such a degree that central banks become more active than they ever have before, either by monetizing debt or by purchasing risk assets outright. The pair also explore how the crisis might affect the 2020 election, the practice of stock buybacks, and specific assets like oil, gold, and the Japanese Yen. Released March 26, 2020.
What happens to the economics of oil when the global economy shuts down because of coronavirus? Harris Kupperman, CIO and president of Praetorian Capital, breaks down the chaos coronavirus has inserted into global oil markets and provides investors with an investment thesis based on the opportunity that chaos has created. In the context of the global shutdown, Kupperman reveals how the combination of the current oil futures contango, all-time highs in tanker charter rates, and the dearth of crude oil storage could lead to never-before-seen revenues and profits for the tanking companies. He walks viewers through the numbers, explains the underpinning economics of the oil markets, and provides time horizons and potential profit multiples for those looking to find opportunity through uncertain times. Released on March 26, 2020.
With coronavirus wreaking havoc worldwide, it’s a perilous time to be in the market. Businesses around the world are shutting down. Equities are plummeting as investors flee to safety, and central banks, desperate to contain the financial contagion, are reaching into their arsenal to do whatever it takes. Today, Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at the ATAC Rotation Fund, sits down with Michael Venuto, chief investment officer of Toroso Investments, and explores the question that’s on everyone’s mind: Is this a fleeting moment of panic, or are we seeing the conditions for a true doomsday scenario? The pair place the massive sell-off in context, explore whether ETFs are making the violent price swings worse, and take a deep dive into the plumbing of the markets. Filmed on March 10, 2020, in New York.
Gold and Coronavirus: The Party is Just Getting Started
After this week’s massive exhale in the gold price, investors are left wondering whether this was the famed effect of margin call selling that could continue if equities move lower, or an unexplained opportunity to pile in at levels not seen since January. Regardless, with central banks cutting interest rates, the return of QE, and the potential for continued woes in equity markets, the medium-term outlook for gold has seldom looked better. That’s why we are bringing back George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street, to assess gold in a world ravaged by coronavirus. He endeavors to answer the questions of whether we will see gold continue to sell-off due to margin call selling, if the speculative interests that drove the price of gold higher after the last crisis have finally returned to the market, and how gold will perform relative to other precious metals and miners that people often see as levered play on the spot price. Filmed on March 11, 2020 in New York.
Gold mining insiders have generally been slow to buy the pullback. INK Research takes a look a junior producer that has seen some buying and explores what could be driving insiders to pull the trigger.
Crude oil and the energy sector have both been extremely unloved in the past few years, perhaps for good reason. Still, many said the negative sentiment had gone too far and that both were strong contenders to rebound in 2020. But then came coronavirus, and now once again, energy equities and oil are out of favor. To update us on these markets that are squarely in the crosshairs of coronavirus, we have Warren Pies, chief energy strategist for Ned Davis Research. In this interview, Pies explains his no-nonsense approach to examining crude oil and the energy sector in general – providing outlooks for both. He also updates viewers on an idea you may have heard about last year from Real Vision contributors like Harris Kupperman – tankers and IMO 2020. Filmed on March 4, 2020 in New York.
Ultra Money Free: A near million-dollar bet on healthier days
The coronavirus is serving up a wide range of risks. In its March 3rd morning report which also was featured in the Globe and Mail, INK Research looks at Teck Resources (TECK), a stock that could perform well if China gets back on its feet quicker than expected and the world dodges a potential pandemic. To get access to INK Reports as they are published join the Canadian Insider Club, Insider Tracking Advantage Ultra or INKResearch.com
Praying for a Miracle: Coronavirus' Black Swan Risk
Will the coronavirus cause the everything bubble to pop, trigger a global economic depression, and be the impetus for major systemic changes? Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor argues that the current coronavirus outbreak could be the “biggest economic event of our lifetimes.” He reveals his analysis of the real risks presented by the coronavirus outbreak and the ensuing response for people, markets, and institutions. He compares the COVID-19 outbreak to the Spanish Flu from a century ago – pointing out the important similarities and differences. He connects his doom loop thesis to the Black Swan risk that coronavirus represents to the indexification of markets, the coming retirement crisis, and the everything bubble. Finally, he shares his thoughts on the impact a global event could have on gold and cryptocurrencies and shares his hope for a better future born of the COVID-19 chaos. Filmed on March 4, 2020 in New York.