The Exponential Age: Crypto's Fast and Furious Rise
Raoul Pal returns in his role as the founder of Global Macro Investor to update Real Vision members on the exponentially large role crypto is playing within his macro framework. Raoul argues that crypto is a "black hole" that is sucking in all of the world's talent and value at a speed that no one can comprehend and that its capacity to generate phenomenal returns for investors is not temporary but rather part of a durable long-term trend that is at the vanguard of what he calls "The Exponential Age." Raoul contends that since central banks have suppressed the volatility of currencies and interest rates, large "macro" on heavy swings in these variables no longer offer the opportunity they once did and that it is in the world of crypto where these outsized returns can be found. Filmed on April 10, 2021. Key learnings: Raoul sees the migration of value to the digital world as an exponential trend that offers opportunities for investment return that are no longer possible in traditional capital markets
Inflation Fake Outs, Oil Update, and Entrenched Interests as a Play on Fiscal
Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, returns to Real Vision to discuss why he thinks inflation fears are perhaps pre-mature but that fiscal stimulus and the corresponding household net worth will play out in consumer spending and inflation around two quarters out. Even if we get inflation, Pies argues that inflation will have to be a lot higher for longer before it affects Fed policy. The mixed signals being sent from crude oil also factor in as a red flag for inflation because rising crude oil prices are a leading indicator of inflation. Warren is still positive on the reopening but believes many of the reopening stocks have repriced accordingly. He likes "entrenched interests" that already have deep ties to Washington D.C. to play increased fiscal. Filmed on April 12, 2021. Key Learnings: Outlooks for higher inflation and crude oil prices are potentially pre-mature. The reopening is going strong but reopening assets have repriced accordingly. Entrenched interests with deep histories of doing business with the federal government are Warren’s play on increased fiscal spending.
Keith Dicker, founder and chief investment officer of IceCap Asset Management, returns to Real Vision to explain why he disagrees with the "reflation" narrative that has buoyed commodity prices and emerging market currencies. Dicker argues that rising yields will draw capital into the U.S. from regions whose capital had not fully recovered from the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and was further impaired by the COVID-19 recession. Key learnings: Dicker sees signs that the reflation trade is grinding to a halt and argues that renewed strength in the U.S. dollar could emerge. He is constructive on dollar-denominated assets and thinks a melt-up in U.S. equities is possible. Dicker thinks emerging market currencies and commodity prices such as copper and oil could encounter weakness as global growth slows down.
INK Ultra Money Free: Oil patch bulls get a buying opportunity at MEG Energy
INK Research assesses how MEG Energy (MEG) might do as the Biden Administration kicks off its push to rebuild America. Is the oil patch set for another leg higher? Join us via INKResearch.com or CanadianInsider.com as we let the insiders point us to opportunity in the months ahead.
Gold, Active Management, and Macro Hedge Funds: The Alaska Permanent Fund's Unconventional Allocation
The Alaska Permanent Fund is the $75 billion sovereign wealth fund of the state of Alaska, and since oil was discovered in Alaska in the 1970s, the APF has been receiving royalties and investing that capital on behalf of Alaskan citizens. Every year, it pays out a dividend—a form of UBI—to the citizens, who also do not pay any state income tax. In this interview with Sean Fieler, president and CIO of Equinox Partners, Marcus Frampton, CIO of the APF, explains his own unconventional views on investing and how he is bucking the trend in the large institutional investor space. Together, they discuss why Frampton has allocated the APF in gold, active management, and macro hedge funds while resisting the urge to chase private equity like many of his peers. They also discuss Frampton's personal investing style and why he is so attracted to micro-cap stocks and OTC markets. Filmed on March 31, 2021. Key Learnings: Institutional investors, who are the major forces in global markets, are largely driven by the actuarial projections of consultants and, with a few exceptions like Marcus Frampton and the APF, tend to cluster into similar portfolios and assets.
As we explain in our latest Top 20 Mining and Cryptocurrency Stock Report, if interest rates continue to rise, project value creation will become critical for driving investment returns. In the March 31st morning report, INK Research looks at one of its top-ranked gold stocks that could be well positioned to grow the value of its Nevada assets. Join us today via INKResearch.com or CanadianInsider.com for access to our morning and Top 20 reports.
If interest rates continue to rise, project value creation will become critical for junior miners. Today, INK Research looks at one of its top-ranked gold stocks that could be well positioned to grow the value of its Nevada assets.
Preston Pysh: Understanding Bitcoin from a Macro Perspective
Preston Pysh, founder of The Investors Podcast Network, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss value and valuation in the context of central bank policy at its limit. Pysh shares his journey from U.S. Army veteran to value investor and Buffettologist to crypto and Bitcoin advocate. As a value investor, he found it hard to continue looking narrowly at 'value' when he had serious doubts about the entire currency regime, given today's aggressive monetary policies. Eventually, that led Pysh to Bitcoin as an alternative store of value—and he believes Bitcoin is going to make markets free and open again. Filmed March 26, 2020. Key Learnings: Pysh explains some valuation metrics of Bitcoin and why he looks at it in four-year cycles given the supply halving schedule, which he calls the quantitative tightening cycle. He highlights that a long-term chart of the price of Bitcoin looks similar to Metcalfe's Law, which he uses as a Bitcoin price projection metric.
Veteran macro investor Michael Nicoletos returns to Real Vision to share the opportunities and risk he sees across a wide array of assets including currencies, equities, interest rates, commodities, and crypto. He shares with Real Vision's Jack Farley his view that central bank balance sheet expansion will likely continue to result in skyrocketing asset inflation and that the United States dollar is poised to benefit from rising interest rates. He argues that emerging markets face serious challenges in this potentially bullish-dollar regime and analyzes the recent chaos in Turkey. He compares the burgeoning fiscal and monetary stimulus in the United States with the shortcomings of the European Union’s efforts to implement fiscal stimulus. Linking macro to crypto, Nicoletos explains his views on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, and several other altcoins. Filmed on March 24, 2021. Key learnings: Nicoletos' view on central bank liquidity leads him to be very bullish on dollar-denominated assets as well as Bitcoin. Since the U.S. stimulus efforts will accelerate economic recovery, Nicoletos sees the U.S. dollar poised to outperform the Euro and the currencies of emerging markets.
Kevin O'Leary: Digging into Mr. Wonderful's Investment Philosophy
Famed investor Kevin O'Leary, aka Shark Tank’s Mr. Wonderful, joins Real Vision’s Raoul Pal to discuss his investment philosophy and why he rebalanced his portfolio to include 70% equities and 30% fixed income. He increased his weighting in gold to 5%, took a position in Bitcoin for the first time, and stresses the importance of ethical mining and why investors need to know where their Bitcoin is mined. When it comes to private market investments, O'Leary looks for direct-to-consumer companies as he has seen a digital pivot in America during the coronavirus pandemic, and he aims to find companies that have figured out social media and customer acquisition costs. Filmed March 22, 2021. Key Learnings: O'Leary builds his own index as chairman of O'Shares ETFs and shares his balance of U.S. and European stocks: O'Shares U.S. Quality Dividend (OUSAX), O'Shares U.S. Small-Cap Quality Dividend ETF (OUSMX), O’Shares Global Internet Giants (OGIGX) and O'Shares Europe Quality Dividend ETF (OEURX). He has studied throughout history how equities provide a bit of protection in the beginning of inflationary times because they have pricing power when