261909282 - 1_mbkmyvs9 - PID 1851201 Hi everyone, Welcome to the real vision daily briefing. It's Wednesday, June 22nd, 2020 to emasculate you with dairy style founder of 42 macro highlighted areas. Hey Maggie, It's good to see you. How are you? I'm doing okay, Do it. Okay. I think everybody kinda watching the fads still we had shape how testifying in front of Congress again, saying kind of reiterating, try be as hawkish as possible, right? Committed, aren't strongly committed to inflation. But it was interesting to watch the stock market seem like it was ignoring you for most of the day we had what looked like a little bit of a rebound going on, but it kind of floor just dropped down a little bit at the end, they rolled over back into the red. Nothing huge in terms of selling, but it's interesting to see that that negative sentiment or just, or just lack of buyers, I guess in the last half hour trade, ten-year bond yield down. So 3.15, we accrue. Price is lower, of course, crypto getting shredded again. What did you make of the market action today? Yeah, Margaret, actually, it was a pretty interesting I mean, it's in the context of what we're observing here in our process of 42 macro is a potential market regime transition from what we call inflation, which is where the market's pricing in an accelerating inflation and growth slowing to what we call deflation, which is where the market is pricing in the simultaneous decelerations or both of those factors we saw there are pretty significant sell off in crude or that we rallied off the lows. Another big draw down in energy prices are, so our energy stocks a, B draw down in crypto. Are you seeing emerging markets? Take it on the chin. So separate and apart from this sort of intraday rally in stocks which it may itself be, be incrementally fueled by the post op ex dynamics. Don't forget, we're two days after pretty chunky OpEx removed a significant chunk about negative Gamma, I think the market is starting to sniff out this move towards deflation. Which revenue? So when you say deflation, because there's this huge conversation and it came up today during the testimony around inflation, the idea that they're trying to bring down, but just because the rate is lower or it's decelerating or they're smaller increases. However, you want to categorize that, that it's still going to get stuck at this really elevated level. That's what people, especially those in the inflation camp are really concerned about when you're talking about deflation. Or is it possible the way you look at it that it can be lower but still kind of stuck at a high level or do you see that thing going back down? Yes. So just in terms from a risk management perspective, in our core process at 42 macro least on the fundamental forecasting side, really anchors on the rate of change of a primary economic variables like the rate of change of growth in the economy, the rate of change of inflation, or the second derivative is what I mean by the rate of change. So yeah, the trend it change in those time series will have an important influence on dispersion across asset classes, both within and across asset classes. Back tested the six ways to Sunday. But when you think about it from the perspective of the Fed, there are actual targets levels that they're concerned about, not just in reported statistics, but also in market-based measures in terms of expectations, et cetera, which pow aligned last week. Further outline this week. Happy unpack those as well. Yeah. What did what jumped out at you, anything VCs were sort of hearing this similar message over and over again. And I know everybody parses everything they say to look for any changes or anything that jumped out at you today from the testimony? Yes. So from the testimony specifically know what I thought. I thought he reiterated everything that quite frankly, I live tweeted about during last Wednesday's FOMC press conference, which is, this is a federal reserve that is content with sending the economy into a, what it hopes would be a mild recession in order to tackle it's what I consider and I think JPL himself considers to be an inflation disease. It's willing to amputate its arm or its leg in order to save the whole body, if you will, from the, from the spoils of inflation. So I think he did a decent enough job reiterating that emit a sea of nonsensical political nonsense around gas prices in regulation, et cetera, et cetera. These PCs, Tim I angle testimonies are always fraught with politics. But when you read the tea leaves, there wasn't actually much substance sort of in terms of incremental information relative to what we heard from her from last Wednesday. Yeah. And it's been interesting to watch the data because as you said, there's conversations really turn very quickly and everyone's talking about recession because we saw as, as many had been predicting, those of you who've been worried about the economy, we're starting to see some of those early warning signs, those more forward-looking indicators, whether it's some of the manufacturing indicator or it's some of the early housing start to turn really in the last week. And so I know that's got everyone thinking about inflation want to play a clip right now. Because as we've been discussing the Fed and how behind the curve they may or may not be. Tn Yang weighed in on the subject in a recent expert view, he did for us here at real vision. Let's listen to a clip it out and I will talk on the other side. Right now the market narrative is very much digest. The fat is behind the curve. But in terms of how fixed income markets should be behaving in kind of a quote, unquote, normal hiking cycle, I would say the behavior's not that bad, right? Your curves of January, black bath Latin in terms of this hiking cycle, which is typically what you would expect if you look on the longer-term things like five-year, five-year, if you look at Home Premium, D6, haven't haven't really gone, gone crazy level. So for sure that there has been a lot of adjustment. Clearly banjos E2E sad. But you're not seeing the typical panic that you will see a credible if they truly want, and you will probably see Tom Freeman. I'm rise a lot more. You actually probably see 100 curves. Steve me in response to fat policy action was because January you see a flattening try and it shows that at least the mark is going to give the fast some credibility that the fatty serious about fighting inflation. To the extent that they may be willing to engineer a recession, has you get the curve flattening? So as of right now again, these are things I want to watch for in terms of whether that's truly a change. But the festival is, is credible in my view because they still, they might be behind the curve, but they're still doing things to address it. And the mark is kind of giving them some credit for it. And that for expert view is available to essential plus n prime members on our website. So people taking the Fed at face value, I suppose that there are more serious about it. I think it's an open question still there is how much they can actually influence what's going on. I mean, you know, they're, they're targeting the demand side. We know there is some supply side issues involved here. Where do you come down on this? And I guess the question is, where are we with the bond market? I mean, a bomber gets giving them some credit, but he's the Fed leading the bond market or the bond market leading the Fed. So right now gets a phenomenal question. And by the way, I generally agree with TN, chance of view. I mean, he's a, he's a another data-driven invest in or out to the side with a lot of data-driven macro risk managers. But just going back to your question, I think what was most concerned about any sort of articulated this several times, particularly in the last week or so, which is the very concerned about long-term inflation expectations in the volatility associated with that becoming quote, unquote, unmoored, if you will, to borrow a phrase from our fringe and bullet yesterday. So Brian, I sent you a chart from our one of our Texas as PAL is fighting to maintain control over the bond market. And what this chart shows in the top panel is just a 10-year 310 tenure three month yield spread. That's observe a proxy for the growth expectation of the economy, if you will. So pals really got growth expectations, at least still reasonably anchor because we have not seen a significant flattening of that curve. You do generally by a, you know, kind of a bull, bull steeper or cerebral flattening, if you will, what you typically see into a, into a. But on the bottom I think that's the more important are. So the middle panel is actually the more important chart which shows the term premium, which is a very wonky sort of academic measure that really is just trying to assess, you know, sort of how much premium investors demand for holding longer-term maturities. Once you x out, you know things like grow the expected growth rate, expected inflation rate, or the inflation risk premium, et cetera, et cetera. And what you're left with is the term agreement. And right now at minus six basis points, were only in the eighth percentile of that on all daily observations going back to the early 1960s on this metric. And so what that's telling you is that the bond market believes the fred has, the Fed still has credibility with the bond market in terms of its inflation forecasts, its growth forecasts, and ultimately its desire to, to, to, to sort of maintain that control by effectively squashing out inflation really quickly and really effectively. Now, if at any point in time, as you can see from the chart going back to the mid to late seventies, all the way through the early eighties that the Fed and you'll start to mill off the burns really lost control. Arthur Burns was that that chair back in the seventies who really let the inflation genie out of the bottle, which obviously polished trying to avoid. He really let that genie out of the bottle when you saw the term premium wine to just under 500 basis points. So if you think about just without any change in growth or inflation expectations, you can have the ten-year treasury yield, Gallup 3, 4 or 5 under base, not P45. It's more like two to 300 basis points higher just on a revision to the term premium, which again is the bond market sort of on your price again of the uncertainty around Fed policy. So this is what powers the hyper concerned about. Because again, if he lets the inflation genie out about it, what's really hard to get that back in? Yeah, and that's it. That is why that is one of the pillars of their mandate. Price stability. We didn't, it was less at the four because of this inflationary slash deflationary period we're in. But a question on bonds scary from the RV site. The ten-year treasury rate peach right at the top of the stock market in early 2000 and mid 2007 per the title of this interview, why do you think rates will keep going higher this time, I would say, do you think we've seen the peak? And if not, what's going to keep them elevated or what's different this time around? Yeah. I think that's a difficult question to answer in this particular juncture. The first part in question which just have we seen the peak and rates. So we're going to see how new highs and rates if inflation continues to misbehave. You know, we've been talking about this for the past month or so, about the potentiality for inflation misbehaving. It did misbehave in the May inflation reading, we did see a step function increase. Terminal Fed funds rate expectations and policy rate expectations across the curve. And ultimately that big shock higher and the umich, you'll five-year forward inflation expectation, which really spook the Fed, is obviously, you know, filtering its way into the bond market so we could continue on in this process. I mean, we've been, I don't need to go into the details on the inflation statistics that will tell you that, that risk is still very much on the table. We saw broadening out of inflation if inflation data or inflation pressure in the most recent meeting, the MAY reading, just to get those statistic at you. Three month annualized median CPI, which is everything in the CPI basket on immediate basis, accelerate it to 6.4% on median bait on a three month annualized basis, fastest rate ever. So the broad base and this of inflation is a real issue and has not been tamed yet, at least not according to the data as it relates to the bond market, have we seen the highs and yields? I think that's a 5050. Toss it right now It's a bit difficult to ascertain that at the present juncture and in generally speaking, just kind of take a step back from a risk management perspective. It's always difficult to catch falling knives and any market, Obviously you catch the falling knife and bond prices here. So just be careful with these types of questions. What's more important is understanding to change the potential change in the regime that we could potentially favorable for the bond market. And that's something we do on a daily basis. 242 macro Brian, if you bring up that chart, deflation is now the second most probable regime. So consistent with our, you know, kind of grid framework which we use the rates of change of growth and inflation to identify what regime the economy is in, we're actually using market signals, core market signals across 42 different markets, Paul, different asset classes. To now castes what rushing the market isn't, what is the market pricing ended? It's been consistently pricing in inflation. It's been the highs most probable regime. And oh, by the way, it is 504 unique data points that go into that process every day to determine what that mark regime is. And now what we're starting to observe is that deflation is In the second most probable regime, which is actually consistent with our forecasts which are calling for a phase transition in the economy to deflation, again, growth, slowing inflation, slowing by sort of mid to late q3. And so to answer the question just very succinctly, if we've seen the highs in bond yields, it's coming right on time. I'm not certainly we see myosin binding. It was because I could see a scenario where inflation to use a surprise, the upside over the next month or two. And if that happens, we're going to see another step function increase in term of Fed funds rate pricing. But if we don't see inflation surprise to the upside, then it's very likely we have seen the highest abundance. And that's what's so hard because this is, you're trying to gauge the supply chain issues in some way. Not the demand, which was a little bit clearer. I mean, it's hard to forecast if China's going to close down because of COVID. Again, these are the things that keep roiling us. I think when it comes to trying to get a handle on that and why so many have gotten the timing on bonds wrongs are people who think bonds are a goodbye year, but they're just, it's just so hard to plug in the timing part and not matter. So I think just echoing dairies to sentiment, be careful in this environment. It's just a really, really difficult one. So the same question we get all the time as you know, dairies when it comes to stocks, it's that same feeling. You know, are we through the worst of it? Is it time to start buying and the way gallon put it in a question here from the RV site, I hope I'm saying your name right. Galen, the average recession has roughly 25 percent decline in SMP earnings as to be earnings are $204 as far as I can see these into the numbers he's using or she's using the average multiple on the S and P 500 is 15 times over time, I think. So serving the multiple doesn't overshoot. That's a 2300 on the S and P. Do you think this is worthwhile thinking? Thank you for walking through thinking by the way, so we can understand where you're coming from with that question. And I think the way I want to put it to dairies is people are looking at this decline from the top right and obviously Gallant also plugging in some some earnings to that. But I've had people on the program say, I don't care what the decline is from the trough to the bottom now because that's not that's not all the information I need to see whether maybe it's not going to go back to that level. You know, you've gotta plug in a lot of other data in. So how are you, What are you thinking about dairies as you try to figure out their trajectory here and the timing for the, for the S and P are four stocks. Absolutely. So if I get fired for my day job of helping professional and retail investors manage macro risks. I'll be a professor somewhere, know maybe back in New Haven where, where I got my degree. But I think this is a perfect question and phenomenal question gallon if we're saying your name right, apologize if we are to kind of unpack a few things, right. So I'll start by just really quickly. Smp earnings on a next 12 month four bases which you should be using to tell value the market and forward-looking basis are currently at $228 per share. That's a new high. We've trended higher. We've not seen any significant earnings revisions and we continue to try and hire on an earnings per share basis. So that, that's, that's an issue. If you think about the significant growth slow down, whether we're likely to, that we've already accumulated in terms of the financial tightening we're seeing, but we're likely to experience and realized terms over the next few months. A couple more things i'd, I'd highlight that we're in this fantastic question. Great teaching opportunity here. The mentioned the word average several times in that average drawdown, average earnings, average multiple, average, average, average. Average is the most dangerous word and finance, write this down. Average is the most dangerous word in finance. And the reason it's so dangerous is because most time series spend very little time at their average. The average itself is just a statistical concept that we don't live in a world of empirically observed averages. We live in a world of deviations to the upside, deviations to the downside. And when you put it in an Excel spreadsheet or in a Python script, it becomes an average, right? And so we have to understand that there's nothing average about this particular setup or about any particular setup on an ex ante basis when you're managing risk and financial markets. So just get it would get rid of it, get yourself away from that. Try to be more bays eating your approach. You need to use things like averages, things like mean, standard deviation, percentiles, etcetera, z-scores to understand to how to contextualize risk and to ex ante basis. But at the end of the day, 2023, June 2020, sorry, June 2022 is the only June 2022 in the sample to only be the only joint weights when you sample. So be aware of them. Awesome, awesome. Thank you so much for that diarrheas and I think that's why. And thank you for the question. These are the kind of things we want you to ask because, you know, this is the kind of sort of growth mindset that's going to help prepare you and help you make better, better informed decisions. And that's what we're all about. So extension for that. Appreciate you and sorry. I go and I actually didn't even answer your question. I went on a rant. My apologies. But to answer your question, no, I do not think this is this is the bottom. Again, we've studied bear markets very extensively afford to macro in fact, in our latest monthly macro scattered reports, a 100 some slides, deep dive presentation on all the different cycles that matter. Thank slides 100 to 104, where we walk through the five major bear markets. Last 100 years. We've got sort of the crash after the 920 nine Eyes want to say there was a 937, 40 to 70, 370 for two thousand, two thousand to an MIC 2007 to 2009. And what we found in those crisis, there are several key takeaways, but two of them I think are most important, which is, you always see the significant bear market rallies drive to crash at each one of those crashes had more than eight to nine? Substantial what I would consider eight plus eight plus or more, some at 20 percent plus or more a bear market rallies. But you always see a significant acceleration of downside convexity towards the end of the process. And I'm not quite sure we've seen that significant acceleration of downside convexity, nor have we really truly priced in some of the positioning cycle dynamics or evaluation cycle dynamics that we've highlighted really since the beginning of the year. Yeah. And this is where it's important. Mean listen, we were also trained to sort of want to try to buy that DEP, want to try to find a bottom because, you know, there will be opportunity when things do change or when we do ship. It's just really difficult. And I would encourage you all, this is where sizing your risk super important as well. We've got a series out about risk control out. Mark Ritchie did a whole sat down with some of the best in the business to talk about all the things you should be considering. A dairy springs it all up as well when you're thinking about something like that. So I encourage you all to go check that out. It's really, really helpful at a time like this. And we're all thinking about the same thing. We all want to grab that opportunity. But you, but you do have to be careful. Question about we get this in speaking of the volatility and how to, if not make money or at least protect what we've got. This question comes up from time to time diarrheas, That's goal. Do you think gold is a good investment in this economic climate from tests on the RV site who have no idea of gold. I've been sitting there for months now. I'm proud to say to them, we as Talking Heads, fiduciary stewards of your trust in, you know, Coast stewards of your Cabo. And we always feel like a pressure to come up with answers. And the reality is I'm going to have any clue what's happening with gold right now. It maybe it as a geopolitical risk premium price in there. But maybe there's also obviously rising real interest rates. Along the curve is weight on gold and recent months. It's bearish from their perspective or our volatility, just momentum signals. So I just assume role with that in the absence of really truly understanding what's fundamentally driving gold. Now, we know what historically has fundamentally drove gold. That's obviously been the Dalit religious rates, but clearly that's not been the, the key, the key driver of the trade, at least in the last six months or so. Yeah. I mean, it's hey, by the way, speaking a real expert, goals, befuddling everybody. I think I got a lot of a lot of people are having a hard time. I mean, there's people, there are people who still have a lot of conviction around goal, but even people who like even some of the commodity guys that we talk to, people who are in that space. Or if there's a lot of cross currents with gold. So it's, it's really tricky right now, but I'll keep well, keep asking about that task because it does come up a lot. Question from Casey on the exchange. This is interesting, okay. I'm reading this in real time. Apparently I'm the only one who still looking at counterparty risk. You're not the only one. Kaci I've been using USB-C to hold dollars since last year. Do you think it's a safe bet with possibly more risk out there? Most are willing to assume I'm really worried about exchange insolvency and I don't want to use an IV ledger. There doesn't seem to be a safe place. I think this really is Giving Voice Darius to what a lot of people are concerned about. They're just, let's remember, the Fed's rolling off its balance sheet. We've just started that process. It's feeling a little calmer this week, but we know last week there was a moment where it it does seem like it's still a very fragile environment. How are you thinking about that? Yes. So the completely agree with the person, they might question, Casey. Casey, I definitely agree with you on concern about counterparty risk. So of the 42 factors, market-based factors in our global macro mismatches, which you use to cast them are crushing process that we discussed earlier. For Alia, spread counterparty risks, at least in the interbank counterparty risk, is one of those factors and it's bullish from the perspective of our volatility, just a momentum signal that is bad, it's bad. And what the Froyo spread measures. This is a spread between unsecured inter-bank lending, unsecured interbank finance, so that, that's an issue. So you're, you're seeing counterparty risk rise across the traditional finance space, which very clearly is a coincident to leading indicator of counterparty risk rising broadly. We're actually probably a lagging indicator because one thing that typically happens when get their liquidity cycle, you know, kind of moving in reverse this liquidity cycle downturn that we're currently mired in. And then we accurately press age. You typically see liquidity dry up on the fringes first. So you go to, you know, it's the **** coins, you know, for lack of a better word than it's the, you know, the main group dozed and it's the main crypto is an arc stocks and it's the main tech stocks. And then, you know, they're going to come after Apple at some point, right? Yet they haven't already in size in. So, yeah, It's kind of how this whole process works. Liquidity, once it's drying up, you run out of places to hide. And that's kinda the point, which is why I've been saying for six months now, cash is king. You don't need to be fully invested at every point in time in the x-axis. You don't need to be fully invested at every interval. What's Matt, what matters most is protecting your hard earned net worth or your clients or net worth if you're a professional investor. And sometimes the decision to raise cash might be counter to your investment mandate or might be counter to your desire to generate return as an individual. But guess what? It's better than losing 30, 40, 50, or 60, 70, 80, 90 percent your money, depending on asset class, you will ever log in at the top. Yeah. Yeah. Great point areas. I want to ask you. Casey mentioned being reluctant to use yf ledger. The painting crypto has just been really, really difficult to watch and, you know, anybody find that space, there are concerns about someone have to step into to bail out or to buy out another firm that was struggling a bit. So what do you do you have any sense of are your indicators? It's I know the track record you've been looking at it for a while. It's still relatively new asset classes. What are we looking at here? Is there's still a lot of downside. We have any sense of where there's any support. Yes, I got it. Was there any support? So we've held 19 case support which has been our sort of, you know, sort of happened way sooner than we thought it would happen. But we always thought that was sort of the, the target zone for crypto. Go back a few months ago on this program, we said that out loud, so don't don't shoot you for saying that because it happened. It is what it is in the market, unconcerned just based on where we are in the broader liquidity cycle, the 19 k is not going to hold. And quite frankly, there is no support beyond 900 care beyond the prior highs of the prior cycle when you lose support, like what? Like a chart that's breaking out to new all-time highs. There is no resistance. You know, you might get technically over bought on a short-term basis, but there's no actual resistance. Same way if you go break 902 K and you break the prior cycle, the eyes which we know, test it this past weekend. If you break those, there's no support, right? People, we're going to start dumping in mass and people are going to start going after various counterparty, various exchanges, various sort of, I forget what they call you to the sort of, um, you know, the sort of risk metrics that we think are safe currently. Are these companies like MST are that people think are safe currently, but they may be ultimately proved to be safe, but may not be, may not feel so safe in the moment. And this is the problem with, I think a lot of the on Chain Analytics generally write like a lot of Leon chain analytics or the analysis that's endemic to the crypto space is fantastic, is actually some of the best analysis out there in the sense that you have full access to all of the data in a way that we do not have in traditional financial markets. So it's actually really thoughtful and deep analysis. But the problem is when the cycle turns, none of the stuff that matters is on chain. You have the liquidity cycle is off-chain, the growth cycle is off chain, the inflation cycles off chain. You know, the profit cycle is off chain. You need someone who understands all these off chain cycles in order to actually get the asset class right. So you're kind of going back sorry for the long way to Dr. Abbott just going back to answer the question. We break support. There is no support. Who knows ultimate closer? No, no Great stuff varies. And the headlines that I was referring to you and will have remember, we're doing crypto, I wrapped it, we have a full detail on that as well as the whole team being all over this. It was the headlines of sand back been freed, setting into bailout basically block phi and wage or digital. Just the latest headline, but we just have had a, you know, there's just a lot going on in that space, so there's a lot of risk. And you know, again, against the fragile market, you can understand why people are concerned. So dairies as we look out, what do you, what are you going to be focused on? So I think it's so interesting now that we're starting to see some things coming in data. But you still have reports of huge demand. We see reports at the airport, people are going crazy to go on a vacation, you know, depending on where you choose the leg, look things up really robust. Or it looks like we're kind of headed off the cliff with the economy and things are going to slow rapidly. What are you looking at as there are for leading indicators that you think are going to be most important, Where should we all be looking? Yes, are the leading indicators that matter most in terms of enforcing their growth and inflation cycle are still very much pointed to the kingdom, the inflation cycle and very much wanted to the downside on the growth cycle, which implies eventually on a wax inflation lagging indicator, inflation cycles likely to roll over. So just in terms of, you know, kind of the things that we're trying to be, that what we're really open to do by having all this cash one, I think the number one thing that's sort of on a lot of institutional investors, you're kinda like myself or thinking that we're basically all licking our lips and I'm rubbing our fingers together for the opportunity to really buy bonds in size and maybe we missed the ultimate low already are. But ultimately we are going to all start to get signals one by one, that that's the next place to rotate into that mean duration. Don't 30-year Treasury market rally 2030 percent from here. By that ultimate time that they ultimately pivots out of this, out of the side of this nonsense. And then on the pivot, I still think that's the number one thing to watch as it relates to when do you start that by risk assets. I think investors keep asking me. I've seen this price here. Each or I've seen this valuation reads therefore must be time to buy or your nose and buy a dollar cost average all the way down and your kids college tuition might. My point is, you're not going to get a low in risk assets until one of two things have happened. If not both, one, the market is ultimately priced and the depths of the full, the full depth of the growth slow down. Maybe you can argue the market is priced in a very mild recession. But if the market goes down into the 2030 present from here, and credit spreads widen another 2300 basis points mirror, it will not be amount recession, there'll be a much deeper recession. So be aware of that because the market is a leading indicator for the economy, not the other way around. In second, you're not going to get to the bottoms, ultimate lows anywhere near the ultimate low risk assets. We priced in the full brunt of the liquidity cycle downturn, which is a coincident indicator to markets. It is not a lagging indicator to markets. This, this sort of cuts out the Fed reducing its balance sheet. You know, treasury General Cao balanced, being sick of the elevated reverse repo, look unlike yelled straight up like a roller coaster ride to the, to the moon. I mean, all these things are happening in real time and they're draining liquidity out of the system incrementally day-by-day, week-by-week. And you cannot price that in it's a technical dynamic that ultimately sucks liquidity out. So until this stuff stops, which again, we don't think it's going to stop anytime soon, but anytime soon, I mean, over the next few months, it's very unlike loosing the lows and risk assets, the ultimate most. And there is our cautionary tale. But you're right because it's a question we get all the time. And again, this is we've been program, we've been in this regime for really long time where there has been, you know, the Fed out there pumping all of this. Or at least a poet and creating these easy money conditions. And we've seen stocks do that. So everyone is conditioned to sort of get in there and a dot cross divergence. I think we need to take a step back and really think about what's happening. So thank you for that dairy as great conversation. Thank you all for the questions. We will be back same time tomorrow with the daily briefing. Andreas and a Larson is going to catch up with Western Nakamura. So be su, be sure to tune in for that. In the meantime, take care and good luck out there. Thanks. Areas.