260450352 - 1_h3alhyol - PID 1851201 Hello everyone. Welcome to the real vision daily briefing. It's Thursday, June 16th, 2020 to Maggie lake and here with me today is dairies Dao, founder 42 macro, and RVs own Western Nakamura. And I'm so glad both of you are here with me today because we've had huge moves and important developments across so many asset markets and geographies. I want to try to touch on as many as possible. So we're closing out the US session with major losses inequities. It looks like in the last few minutes they may have ever so slightly come off their lows. I don't even know if we could say that's a good sign or just exhaustion. But the nasdaq closing down 4%, S and P, somewhere around 3%. And we had small caps getting killed today. But I think again, they're a little bit off their low yields on US treasuries, bell backing off as 11-year highs, as recession fears increase, we saw a plunge in US housing starts, a spike in mortgage rates a week. Philly fed add to that emergency ECB meeting an announcement that they're putting a tool in place to limit bond spreads between countries like Germany and Italy. We saw the Swiss Central Bank hike rates for the first time in 15 years. Diet even get to everything. I mean dairies. The magnitude of the moves, the confluence of all these headlines. You know, I mean, it makes me worried. It seems like things are very fragile right now. I'm he can financial markets or handle this all at once. No, absolutely not. And I think that's exactly what we're seeing on the tape, are obviously big down day and starts big down day and crypto following some pretty big down days obviously, I think what's happening right now is the wool entire world, the whole entire professional investment in retail investor communities are readjusting their exposure to markets to acknowledge the fact that this is a Federal Reserve that's comfortable with engineering a recession in order to get inflation under control. And that's a little bit different. There were, a lot of investors have been certainly not us. We've been warned you guys about this for a long time. That's where, that's where a lot of investors have been through out the shear. And so Wesson, that the thing that I didn't add to that list, and what I want you to really talk about is the Bank of Japan meeting today. Today, your time tomorrow for us because it's morning and Asia that you have been talking about this and preparing us and telling us we needed to pay attention to this and why it was so important. And this meeting I think comes at a time that we couldn't have even anticipated is so fragile with so much happening right now. So walk us through what your watching as we wait for this really important policy announcement and why it matters so much. Sure. So basically, it's the timing wise is funny just because bank depends. A last of all, like I was kind of laughing when you go through all of these central banks are like me and all that hiking rates. An MBO, j's the last one to go. So what I've been saying since late January or so was I was flagging that. You have to watch. Thank Japan. They are the only major central bank that is going to be easing, not just not hiking or tightening policy, but easing into goal inflation. And they're going to be the only sector bank left with providing accommodative policies after a decade of doing so and, you know, and then having every central banks kind of remove it. And so what are the consequences of that? What's going to happen? And it can be a bag of Japan and their yield curve control and holding 25 basis points cap on their tenure yield. You know, can they do that, will do that. What happens if they cannot or will not? You're going to see, you know, if they, if they are unable to hold that 25 base point line, then you're going to see a pop in GDB yields, I would say. And then you're gonna see a massive spike in sovereign yield globally. And then that's going to destroy risk assets. And our Monday of this week, we saw a throat slitting cross-asset globally of everything. And that was coinciding with, of course, triggered by CPI on Friday from the US. But, and I was triggered by the DOJ lost control of yield curve which all on Monday. And that's when you saw because Monday was especially that were used to kind of sell offs, you're delayed by Monday was especially bad. That is what happens. This is what I was worried about. So this is why you should care. Meeting hasn't even happened yet. So meeting is on a few hours later today. Chro to press conference is going to be at 03:30 PM after market close, and then we'll see what happens after that. So it's a Western as you're talking. I'm like, I can't help it. Notice that we are the dunes squad here. I mean, I everybody knows I like to Roxanne color. I just couldn't pull it out today. I was like like, I have anxiety about what's happening. I nervous. I don't like what I'm seeing. What we get. We look like we're attending a funeral mass. My excuse. What's up with you with your with your RBI? Are you vibing that as well? Yes. This is kinda funeral. Esc says Mr. Corona, nice little candle. I have some some roses. So basically what this is is I was trying to work on a video for like a guide for DOJ forehead could have done this. Why does this? But my point is that people are putting on the widow maker trade. And for those who are not familiar with that, what that is, is shorting JTB, short JBBs, you die essentially and leave a widow. And so people are putting Nigerian up here at the Bank of Japan, right? Is that why it's so today's rationally, That's why no one wanted to do that because you'd be fundamentally, fundamentally makes perfect sense, right? Mostly dead, 250% debt to GDP. I mean, look little grease when they were blowing up the European Union though there were like a 120% debt GDP bagged. Or Japan is twice that. You are different. Japan will default on its debt that you're not going to, they're not going to be able to pay back its principal of that. So Schroedinger to be, sounds like a fundamentally good answer. Until you have people like this running the Central Bank and buying up half of j to be issuance. And so that most indebted country in the world can borrow far cheaper 40 years out than the United States government can for six months out. And so this short JEB tray, this widow maker trade, what that is, is there are people that are betting that in a few hours, the bagged Japan will be forced to expand the yield curve, which will band that's currently set at 25 based points. And they're going to move it to wherever it is that they move it. And should they do that, that's going to, that's negative 4 bond prices. And that's why you're also seeing a bit in, in the yen. So dollar Yen was, had been searching the endorsed form currency, major currency of the year to date. And that's because you can either do one or the other. You could either cat GDPs and put this artifice a lid on the day to be market. But then the currency gets destroyed because yield spread widened between the US and Japan. Or you allow GDB yields to climb up alongside in tandem with the rest of global yields. Yield spreads collapse and dollar yen would fall and the end would sort of weaken. So that's why he ends and stable. But the reason for this Holst funeral setup is that indeed I agree that widows at the end of they will be made. The question is, will they be widows of traders, spouses, or will they be, or will it be misses Corrado. And we'll find out. We well, grim agreements. That is Scrum is that gallows humor is. It does feel like we are, we are in this battle. The market is in a battle with the Bank of Japan. So, yeah, so what the bank depend does is there, There's two ways that they buy GDPs. One's called the competitive auction, That's a prescheduled central, often prescheduled sort of set amount of, you know, we're going to buy x amount of JBBs at this tenor on this date. And that's going to do fixed rate operation is when they are targeting the tenured ATP yield and their bid for unlimited, we will buy an unlimited amount of bonds to make sure the 10-year GDP heel stays at 25 basis points or lower. This week. On Tuesday and Wednesday, they did a record amount and mostly they were done something along lines of two or 3 trillion yen or through Jamie buying. They did additional buying. They're basically, they're really just running out of options. Like what I was saying on Twitter, what's I just kinda like, you know, when you run out of shampoo and then you just basically fill the shampoo bottle with water and you shake and ladder. That's what the DOJ is doing right now. You don't just reservoir, so yeah, so this yet, so they're really they're really know, a tough spot right now. But if the DOJ doesn't, like if they, if they don't, if they don't, kind of if they maintain current policy, the yen will be, you will get continue to get destroyed. And that's bad for, for everybody, not just for Japan. And then if they do badly, the band and you're going to see a fixed income duration, a sell-off, and that's going to be continued to be bad for risk estimates as well. So it's a very, very tough to see what like I don't really care what the policy is going to be, but what the market response is going to be. Very yeah. I think it's up and again, coming at a time when we've got all these other shocks to the system I think is what's worrying. Dairies weigh in here and we have a question from DJ W on the RV site, what happens to us on if Japan can't hold the yields, yields curve control. I mean, I think this is, this is where it all ties together. That's what you're worried about Westin dairy. So you also do you share those concerns? Yeah. So if you're in my opinion, that's the last remaining tail risk as it relates to the overall bond market. If you go back to Wednesday and oh, by the way, let me before I even go there, the bigger Japan could do whatever they want. They're not constrained by any bounds. It's more just a political decision to remove the wheel curve control policy or intervene in the end in terms of the Ministry of Finance. But just going back to ask. I think that's the last remaining terrorists that the market is concerned about with respect to pricing in the growth slowdown along into the curve. Because I think that one of the, one of the chief tell risk was the bomb arcade sort of undecided at NUS around whether this was a Federal Reserve that was committed to quacking inflation and ultimately doing whatever it takes to borrow a line from our friend druggie in order to get that done. I think prior to Wednesday, the market was sort of 5050 on that in terms of knows this *** going to back off too soon and allow inflation to that long-term inflation expectations to juicer to remain on Ankur or is, is fed willing to do what it takes on the on the growth slowdown, fun to get it done. I think Paul was very clear about that. The last sermon, this, this terrorists outside of the BAHA, clearly what the Bank of Japan, having the second largest sovereign debt market in the world. You know, they're very important player in terms of institutional allocations. With respect to sovereign debt exposure. You know anything about pension funds, including Japanese pension funds, insurers, asset managers, etc. So if you had a sharp re pricing lower in price in JG bees, or sharp re pricing higher in yields, that it's going to have cavernous ripple effects all across global sovereign debt markets, and obviously across global equity markets, etc, just from a valuation perspective. So we gotta get through this calculus. I'm not even sure that this is the appropriate catalyst because they may choose to do nothing and this may remain a risk or an overhang on the market for the next few months. Yeah, that's a great point. And so Westin I mean, that is that is the other option, right? I mean, somebody is people presumably will have to cover some of the positions if if nothing happens, does it feel like that's also a real possibility? And before we let you go, where are we going to see this like what should, aside from following you on Twitter? Because I know you're essentially gonna be live tweeting this, which we thank you for. But you know what a union is it Forex, is it bonds? Is it where are we going to see the break if it happens? Okay, so first of all, I just want to say it because this came up on Twitter earlier. The JG be market, the yield like that you see on be a trading view or whatever it is. It's, you know, there are so many different sorts of fixed income is not like stocks, like listed areas, like options and all that kind of thing. There are may different prices. So don't likes anchor self to one price and think like, okay, they've broken. To me actually just kinda check around different sources, just want to put that out there. But like Darius's is totally right. Like think about like if you're a fixed a competitor, right? You're basically having a worst year of your career. Urinate. And JG bees actually had been the safe haven for fixed income because there's been an actual corona put. So if you're relying on that and you've maybe become complacent. And then suddenly JBBs are not only blowing pass above that 25 basis point, like suppose it floor, but now yours. This guarantee policy is now in question for Friday and all that. That's going to have markets extremely jittery because that was not something that people had sort of had, had been what you've even considering, let it, let alone prescient. And so I think that there's a lot of people on the fence right now. And so there's gonna be a lot of volatility either way. The thing that I'll say is that if they lose, if they do expand the band. With regards to institutional capital flows, micro, originally my answer would have been like, yeah, that you'd probably see a sell off a treasuries are spiking yields. But again, if the reason that they were not buying, if the Japanese pension insurance community, if they were not buying US treasuries and telling US Treasury just throughout March and all that. Because of an ethics volatility issue and a hedging cost issue. And then they end in the DOJ does expand the, the Y C band, then the end will stabilize. And if the yen stabilizes, you might actually get bid into treasuries. So great it, so that's why it's like a, it's very, very split on like the sort of outcomes. What I'll be watching, for the most part is the futures market, the JTB futures market, which represents mostly foreign institutional or foreign investors. And the like, the sort of the spot rate as well as like, you know, trading activity from Japan retail on, on the currency as well, as well as treasury futures and all that and see, to see how much they're kinda correlated. But the last point I'll make, Maggie is that yes, Tara was a or today is a BAHA policy being day. However, when you have a central bank that is involved, actively involved in the markets every single day. Statements, changing policy statements, intraday and all that. Begs Japan is monetary policy meeting every day. But we'll find today. Yeah, so this doesn't end on Friday. This isn't really just the beginning, but this is not going to quell anytime soon. So that's, that's an excellent point. West in and you've just been all over this. It's been such fantastic work. I know that you're going to have a long stretch. I had a view. So everyone follow West in. We'll have them on real vision of course, but follow him on Twitter. But the very latest, and he doesn't give you investment advice. He's just telling you what to pay attention to and why it matters to your portfolio so you can prepare yourself and adjust your risk Western, you're awesome. Thank you. I'm gonna let you go. Thanks a lot. But let's let's dive into some questions here because I mean, there's just so much to cover. And Ross from the exchange asking, you been flagging a transition from inflation to deflation in the US markets, what do you expect to see in market price action or market response that would confirm your view. He's also asking if there's another like down in the S and P. Is that is that something that would confirm it and what would be driving that? So it's sort of a two-fold question. Yes, I'll start with the easy answer first is yes. It's very likely that there's another leg down the S and P. For most of this year, we've we've put out a 3200 to 3400 OK zone for a double bottom in stocks with illness and be above 100. Obviously, you could infer what that means for other assets like Bitcoin, crypto, et cetera. So yes, I do believe there will be a no leg lower. Doesn't necessarily have to see that, you know, over the next several weeks. I mean, there's a couple of sort of a big dynamics with respect to the options market in terms of how chunky, how large this OpEx is likely. It will be on Friday, you know, it's as big as it was going back to March 2020. And obviously as we know that that was a big catalysts in terms of Spark and the doorbell bottom It's thoughts back then certainly wasn't 2018 as well. Obviously the macro setup is very different. We're not, we're very far away in our Pena from a Federal Reserve dovish. So if we do see any sort of I really frankly on OpEx, that's gotta be sold if you're if you want to protect your portfolio. In terms of the transition into deflation. We mean we'd monitor all the same things that we monitor every morning. And 42 macro we refresh, resolve the exact same models. And one of the most important models to determining that would be our global macro risk matrix. And that matrix there 42 different market indicators that we score from the perspective or abolish that he just the momentum signal. And right now the most important, one of the most important setup, those that will give us a clear indication on the market started to pivot to pricing in deflation rather than inflation. Deflation is where both growth and inflation or slowing as opposed to inflation, which is where growth is slowing, but inflation and accelerating to the upside. That pivot will be the sort of four told by some breakdowns, at least from a bullish fans perspective to at least a neutral vast respective across the rates and spreads currencies in our, in our model. And we're just not seeing that yet. It's still quite early in that process. It is. A lot of market veterans say it's never this times different. You know, there's always, there's always, there are lessons to be pulled through and not to get hoodwinked by the idea that things are completely different this time. But is it going to be harder for inflation for that, that deflationary to set in, growth could slow, but inflation likely to slow in the way it normally would when we have all these other factors that are influencing it could be in that more stagflation, airy situation where growth slows, maybe even slams lower, but we're stuck with high inflation because of the supply side that the Fed can't really address. Yeah, that's very true, you know, but I think that's sort of a, you know, I've been very vocal in this program and others all year about how that's a misnomer. And if you understood that that was a misnomer, you also understood that the Fed was going to be more hawkish than the median investor would have anticipated. And it certainly paying the price for, we're not anticipating At this point a juncture. There's a broad base at NUS, inflation in the United States of America that is very separate and apart from the sort of consensus, narrow focus on food and energy prices rising. Obviously, food and energy crisis globally perpetuated by the, you know, the tragic incidents is in Ukraine. But the reality is when you look at inflation on a median basis across every single item in the basket, goods, services, it's actually accelerating to an all time high. You look at it and it's a five-point by a person on a year-by-year basis. That's an all time high. It's up 6.4% on a three month annualized basis. That's an all time high. And then we look at something like core services inflation, which has absolutely nothing to do with food and energy prices. You will, you will get that that's accelerating to 5.2% on a year-over-year basis is the passive current we've seen since June of 91 and up 7.8% on a three month annualized basis. Sfs desperate, we've seen since August of 990. So I'm quite frankly, i'm, I'm really sick of this very narrow focus on supply-driven inflation. When the reality is the US has a demand problem, we dumped $6 trillion of fiscal stimulus into the economy. And we're acting like, you know, nobody did it. We didn't see anything. And oh, by the way, I'm wearing I'm wearing black too. Yeah. Exactly. Because I think that we all feel like it's just appropriate for this moment. There's like a seriousness to what's going on frankly, that I think has us all concerned. So interesting question from Paul and I think this links to the options. And when you see me looking around folks, by the way, i'm I'm looking at all the great questions that are coming in. So keeping come and we'll get to as many as we can. But if not, if you put them on the exchange and throughout all of our shows will try to address them. But you mentioned the option's expiration. Am I talking to Tony Greer earlier this week? He's like Listen, also bracing for down but, but conscious of the fact that you could have a sort of face ripping rally up at some point that may not be sustained, but you know, it's just, it's just a product of the volatility that we're in this. Casey's question, hey guys, about preparing my mindset for the possibility of having money somewhere down the road when it's risky, assets become very illiquid. I also think they mean very sold down. Any tips on accumulating responsibly. Is the rule of not buying more than 2% of daily volume accurate? I'm literally playing a very long game. Thank you for adding that. So I'm not ruling it out. Thanks a lot. It's a great question. Great to include the time frame. I think a lot of people are looking at this kind of market action, saying room, maybe I can pick some stuff up if I am a long-term investor. How do you, how do you think about that? Dairy is given the volatility though, are there any tips on how to do it responsibly? Yeah. I mean, look, if you if you want to pretend like valuation as a catalyst and be my guess and I'm certainly not chastising the mess with the question because I think it's a very reasonable question to ask, but what that, there's two things about the question 1, it tells me that the market psychology hasn't changed enough yet. Bear markets don't bottom when people hop on real vision asking, you know, what, what can I buy? When do I buy? Bear markets bottom when people are puking and concern on real vision about having to sell their house to pay for their kids college tuition. And that's all bear markets bottom. And so, you know, I have this phrase at 42 macro that I think is very appropriate for now. And we'll always be very appropriate from the perspective of managing risk, which is, you don't buy when there's blood in the streets. You buy when there's a catalyst to come clean the blood up. And there's very clearly no catalyst for liquidity cycle perspective or growth cycle perspective. That is over the near term, that's going to cause you from sorted, that's going to spare you from suffering more drawdown of your portfolio if you start to make those kinds of bets today, right? So I think that's a great answer, Casey. So yeah, things achieve from their high, but you need other, other parts of the equation to plug in maybe. And really sort of understand that before you want to, because you can't dollar cost average down into that bear market and it's not going to feel good even if you have a long game and lots of folks it up, Come on, lots of technicians. Mishneh talks about the difficulty of coming back from a draw down. I want to eat. These are such important questions. I'm so happy you're putting them on because this is a really difficult time. People are in a lot of pain. People have lost a lot of money. People are watching their nest egg shrink. And one thing that's really helpful is listening to people who've been through it all, who've learned, survived and learned really hard lessons about risk. Peter branch is one of those voices. Mark Richie sat down with them as part of a series that we have on the website. It's about managing risk. Let's play, clip it out and then we'll talk on the other side. I've been around this business. Well, my 48 here, you know, I'm really looking forward to two more years in which I'd be able to say, I've listed 50 years and the trader, I still love it. That's why I do it. I still love it. But shipping years I've run across a lot of people who really a talk big but never made it. And I've been Rhonda, lot of guys who had to figure it out. They knew what trading and most about when you talk to guys, there really accomplish themself as a traitor, they'd become craftsmen in the business of trading. What you hear is take small losses. What you hear, you Don't worry about the big, the big gain. Your training is not about being right. It's about minute mean minimizing your losses when you're wrong. Well, Peter Grant, that full interview is available on our website for essential plus and pro members. It's a really timely conversation. We're really trying to push in that direction and talk about risks and the difficulty of navigating these really volatile markets. And no one's exactly been through this before because the circumstances are different. But there's a lot a lot of lessons that you can pull for dairies. I know in addition to what you talked about, humans are tweeting about conventional mistakes that people tend to make these times that they really need to be careful about, right? I mean, there is no substitute for experience, whether it be in life in the military, on the grid iron to play football. There's, there's no substitute for how the game slows down when you've been through it all. And so it's very important for young investors, young risk managers, traders, et cetera, to sort of make sure you're paying attention with gray hair in these types of environments because they've seen it all they had been at all. I've seen enough and I've certainly spent many a 100 hour weeks studying the careers of folks like that. And there's sort of three things that I've learned from them that I try to help teach to our subscribers and clients at 42 macro and number one, they'll just do ricotta core risk management lessons Number 1. You can allow your positions can have the same duration. And what I mean by this is you can't be looking out at the same spot in the future. It's expecting all of your traits to work at that specific spot or needing all your traits that work in that same spot, which is sort of goes hand in hand with the number two mistake, which is a lot of investors. Require the same catalyst to work across all their positions like, Oh, I need the Fed balance sheet to expand and have all my loans go up or I need the Fed balance sheet to contract. I have all my shorts go down and my whole portfolio is one full bet which takes me right into the third, third, third 33 risk management sort of corollaries, which is, you know, there's always a range of probable outcomes when you're talking about risk management, risk management is an ex ante exercise. We don't know the future. No one knows the future no matter how much experience or a good data that you might have, because data's always backward-looking. So you want to have a portfolio that's well-constructed to account for the range of probable outcomes. Now there might be a very sort of narrow distribution with a high kurtosis II. There's a very clear sort of like the outcome or there might be a flat distribution with a very limited amount of kurtosis and leptokurtic tails. That tells you, Hey, look, you need to have different types of bets on that might survive. This a go too broad range of outcomes. So that's certainly something we help investors do afford it to macro. And I'm glad we got a chance to listen to Peter Brand's view on that. Yeah. Thanks so much. And so, you know, if if if you're talking, you're nervous and you're talking to your financial advisor, you're listening to this, ask them more than just diversification, right? It's easy to say you need to be diversified, but think about some of this language so that you can see if they're thinking about helping you construct a portfolio. That makes sense against many of these more nuanced questions. I think that's so very useful. Sneak a couple more in here, Doris, why do you think? Yeah, 151, final thing just on diversification isn't about this exposures themselves of the tickers. That's not what diversification is. Diversification is understanding that you want to have different durations for your trades. Yeah, you want to have different catalysts for the traits to work and you want to account for the range of the full range of probable outcomes, tumor growth, inflation, and policy perspective. That's it. Yeah. Well said. Well said. And that's why we're really trying to lean into the learnings from all this when we were learning in real time. But we're trying to get as many people on as we can that can give you some of this information so that you can think about how to survive this, because this kinda feels like what we're at yet. You want to watch your risk and you want to get through this. So you live to fight another day at somebody just said to me today question, how do you explain are not making new lows where QQQ and SPY or making new lows. Are there people bargain hunting in this area? Because that seems like it would be getting crushed with everything else in there right now. There's I mean, there's clearly speculation in the market that we're likely to start to see sort of inflows into the long end of the, the treasury market curve. It's a long integer, you know, sort of more, sort of more core sovereign debt markets. And obviously that's going to start to improve the prospects for something like our, particularly on a relative basis to sort of more cyclical exposures. The kinds of cyclical exposures that investors have crowded into a year-to-date. I'm not so sure that if the S and P 500 goes from where it is today to 3400 or 3200 arcs not going to make new lows, but I certainly wouldn't be betting on, you know, once we do make that market regime transition to deflation and certainly we'll call that out for clients describes a 42 macro. I'm not so sure I will be betting on pressing arc shorts. I think at that point in time you're going to be pressing energy shorts and financial shorts and industrial shorts and all the stuff that has not let the market to lower because that's, that's the recession tree. Yeah. I last question. I think we're going to have time for dx. Y appears to have peaked. What's dairies his take on this? Yeah, It may have. I mean, I've been I didn't explicitly neutral on the dollar for about a month. Now, we're very raging long dollar and sort of short anti dollar exposures like emerging-market local currency debt, a frontier markets, et cetera. And we both those, those, those gains a few weeks ago. And quite frankly, I think it's very difficult to have a understanding where the dollar is. Because on one hand, clearly the, the liquidity cycle, you know, particularly coming out of the Federal Reserve relative to something like ECB is actually getting incrementally dollar supportive and certainly has this week. But on the other hand, when you talk about going into a recession and the ultimate damage that's likely to do to the prophet cycle and the growth. I look here in the US, there's about $7 trillion of growth capital that's flooded into the United States of America in the last couple years that I think might actually go find a home elsewhere in cheaper markets and markets that look like they might have less hawkish central banks or central banks that are further along in their typing curve in or about the pivot. And so to me, I honestly don't know the answer to that and that's 11 final lesson I leave everybody with, you don't need to know the answer to everything. You have a process and the process is good and it's repeatable. And sometimes you don't get the right answer that you hope to get out of it from a financial manager perspective, then just leave it alone and just keep it on your whiteboard. You don't have to put it in your portfolio. You have to be long and short. Everything at all times. You want to go to where your best ideas are and you want to size them appropriately across your different themes and different durations in different catalysts. Excellent advice, stereos, thank you so much for that. These are really, these are really trying times. And so people just have to sort of try to, try to keep your head and try to remember what your time horizon is. And for some people, hopefully that's long-term and they'll have some powder try to get through this and there'll be some opportunities. She's going to be here Same time tomorrow with Michael guy. Think of a better person to close the week out with Michael spent much of his career trying to build instruments to deal exactly with this kind of volatility. So I'm so curious to see what he has to say about what's going on. He was actually my guest this week on our podcast, my life and for trays where he explains his work and how has life experience let him down that path. It was a really honest and moving conversation about overcoming loss. I hope you can all go check it out. Peter brands is there, as well as a whole bunch of other people that we have on our showed it sort of a different side of their trades. There are two best in there to worst. And really it's about how they overcame difficult times like the one we're in, what they learned from their trades, the best and the worst. So it's, it's really interesting sort of human side of their story, but also some really, really good advice to takeaway so you can get that wherever you download your podcast, Check it out, use the number four when you searched on my life and for trades. So michael be here giving all of his advice on the market. And of course, as we said, you know where to find dairies on Twitter, Westerns going to be live tweeting around the Bank of Japan. It's going to be a really important day tomorrow, so hang in there, take care and good luck out there that you're not connected. I close a file, say that. Sure. Just want to say thank you. To Rob Hall and you guys and your whole team at real vision, the amount of sort of data and information and strategy, and real wisdom that's coming out of a free program or some of the programs you guys have behind the paywall in such a very, very anxiety time like this is incredible. I mean, go back to 2008 when all you had was CNBC or even the last few years? Well, yeah, it was a lot of dog barking by nonsensical investors who constantly pound on the table and, you know, it didn't take him victory laps in this like that. What we're getting right now is a world-class education that is designed to help people. And I just want to thank you guys for that because it's really awesome. That's so nice for you to say that diarrheas and that really is the mission that they built the company to try to sort of educate people on. That's why I joined. Because there's a lot of information that they just don't even the most well meaning outlets sometimes just don't have the time. It takes a long time. I mean, I talked to David Rosenberg for an hour yesterday. That's a long time and these people are coming on because they're very concerned and they I think, want to share what they know and they don't want people to lose their shirts. So we can only do it because all of you come on to try to help everyone. So I think it's a collective effort, it's a community and we're super pumped about it. Hopefully we can all get through it. I think we will. There's always the other side, right? So despite our, despite our Blackout beds where we're optimistic, information is power. So take it and come back with us tomorrow guys. Thanks so much.