256939452 - 1_du06e578 - PID 1851201 Welcome to the real vision daily briefing. It is today, Friday, May 27th, 2022. And I'm a blast steam Lawson and I'm very happy to host my first version of, of the daily briefing here. Today I'm joined by or I will tell us all you doing well. I'm fantastic. I'm really pleased you're doing. This. Should be fun, it be great. It will be great. Role. It's been another, I'd say, decent day for risk assets today, nasdaq is up, I think 3% ish. Crude oil is trading above 119 dollars a barrel and we still have bronchials, flat-lining. I even falling to me. This may be a hint that markets have sort of started to look past the inflation scale and look towards growth instead, what do you make of all this busy and markets this week? I, I kinda think that we need to be careful because this month and rebalance, right, everyone. We were told it was going to be huge. I had technical signals that said the market could bounce on a short-term basis like daily stuff my weekly stuff still says is more downside. So I'm not sure whether this becomes the false hope. It feeds on itself. I mean, who the **** knows, but there's a massive rebalanced going on, which is why it's all squeezing. It's a long weekend in the US, so everyone had to jam the order book in today. So the question is, does it sell off after Memorial Day? Does it continues to go for a bit and then sell off or is that was that the low? It feels that I've looked at past episodes of all of this. When the feathered pivoting or the economies weakening, bond yields contents come down further before that happens. Because we've only just really pivoted show break-even that come down quite a lot. But we'll get on the hills themselves but only just started. So I feel like it's too early to have the kind of celebration of the better gonna pivot and everything else. But I think that's all coming. Yeah, I think that's the $1 million question right now whether the Fed will pivot this year. And if we look at the most important data point that we received today, in my view, the core PCE prices, Then I actually think that we have some compelling evidence that inflation is starting at these two flat line, or even outright fall in year over year terms, right? We are basically pass the peak and year over year terms. If you ask me, what do you make of the inflation picture and the consequences for the Federal Reserve when you watch these data prints out today? Yeah. Look, I agree with you and I've been following what you'd been segments which are like, I think inflation peak is in just a year on the Occam's LatLng structural inflation. I think the year only Occam's are going to be, we'll say inflation come down pretty sharply. Now. I also think there's massive demand destruction going on in the economy to when I look at monetary conditions, not just using the Goldman Sachs index, but if I add in. So if I use at the rate of change of mortgages, 2-year rates, oil, gasoline, and the dollar. That's the largest monetary tightening and all recorded history that's underway. And I've put a piece out and relevant today. It should come out shortly about some of their stuff. And I think we have the potential to sets up to c negative inflation next year. And I think the one thing that needs to happen for that to occur is for crude oil to fall, doesn't have to pull a lot. But then the year when he accomplished by March of next year, that crude oil is going to be a massive, make it negative year on year. So and, and that's not going against the crude oil story, which is the structural supply issue. It only has to trade lower for a period of time down to 70 bucks, 80 bucks. And before you know it, the inflation number absolutely collapses. So I'm kind of with you on that. Yeah. And we've even had a member of the Federal Reserve committee out saying that there is a possibility of a pause from September and onwards. And of course, the market will look at such commons and tried to get a grasp of what's going on within the Federal Reserve or the already now pondering whether to pause or not. But one thing I wanted to touch upon when you mention the word demand destruction is to which extent various asset classes have priced in this ongoing demand destruction that we're currently faced with. Because I think that's a very fair assessment of what's going on. And I made a chart earlier today on the relationship between equities and the ISM Manufacturing Index in the US, about 47 right now it's pricing. Yeah, exactly. So the interesting thing here is whether the recession is already called Buy equities first of all, and secondly, whether bonds will follow. What do you make of that? Well, like you, I map out a ton of these relationships. Equities, copper, inventory to sales, a lot of the forward-looking stuff. All this recession, some of them are severe recession. Anything that has monetary conditions in a PPI inverted versus ISM, is it lags? That's putting the ISM of 30. So it feels that most of the risk assets have priced it. There are two that haven't. Pretty much only 21 is oil. And one is bond market. Yeah. So the bond market has been following basically oils rates of change more than it has anything else. And I can understand that because the inflation fixation, but I think that that evaporates and we've seen a very similar setup. I've done a lot of historical analysis of these. What causes the Fed to change path. So I started with 1974. 1974 was very similar to now we had a, we had a supply issue in oil, which is the Arab oil embargo. We had prices rise, CPI was rising, the Fed were hiking, the dollar was rallying, and then growth collapsed. And the ISM went from 56 to 134 months. That's what I'm getting in my data to suggest as possible. The next one was 84. And the Fed cut in the middle of that with inflation still out there. Soon as the ISM touched 50. Same in 1984, same in the 2000s, same in 2001, same in 2018. So I think that the key thing is here is if the ISM comes below 50, they start to worry about the jobs mandate. And we're already hearing the tech companies saying we're going to lay off people. Amazon said they were wildly overstaffed. So that last shoe to drop, it happened in 20182001. And I think it was yeah, obviously 970 for was the lawsuits drop as the oil market? Yeah. I think that's the compass. Well, I even saw referring to what you said about tech companies. The Swedish company Kleiner, laying off people with the prerecorded message this week. I mean, what's going on there? But I think you're absolutely right that we've seen a peak In in employment are already now aswell or at least we started we're starting to see the early signs of a slowdown of the employment cycle as well. And we know that that cycle lacks a lot of the indicators that we've already touched upon. I think the key question here roll. And I wanted you to pick your brain on that topic as well, is whether the FET will be more hesitant in pivoting due to the fact that we are still running clearly above the inflation target cells. What do you make of that discussion? Yeah, So this came up at the roundtable. There's a narrative which is, well, if inflation is still high, we need to see it coming down to 3% or whatever before they do anything. So I went back and checked every time in history. That never happens. In 2001, they were cutting all the way through from that, from oil going from a 100 bucks to a 140 bucks. 2018, there were cutting and they paused and a cup with the oil price coming up. Most of these examples, when you go back in play, even the 1970s, inflation was still going up, an oil was still going up. While they were cutting. In 1974, they were cutting from about July. And really inflation didn't roll over to early next year. Yeah. So I, I think it's a red herring. I think they will focus on inflation, but they realized that demand is the bigger driver. And as soon as demand starts showing that it's coming down, either economy stop shrinking or heading that way. That's when they pivot and that was 2018 and nutshell, I'm Sam touch 50th, they stop depth. And obviously, if you want to sort of front run this development within the Federal Reserve, then you need to be on the watch for a couple of triggers. Maybe the most important trigger for such a reversal is the growth cycle. And we basically agreed seems that the growth cycle is headed down clearly. But the second trigger that you will look for is probably the peak in inflation. And we may have seen a peak in inflation in year over year terms at least I think so. So are there any thing that holds you back from saying that now is the time to bet on a more dovish fed via buying bonds? No, I bought bonds are bought two years and 10 years because I didn't know whether the curve steepens or flattens because it's always gets a bit complicated. So 2018 it flatten first, then steepens, then went negative again and then went up. So I don't know. But yes, I don't see any reason why not in the bond markets kind of telling us this, that a, the growth is now slowing and inflation is coming off. And it's a very simple why I love bonds is people in the bum, aka have one job to look at two things, growth and inflation. While in the equity market you need to look all sorts of stuff, including human sentiments and all of the ******** that goes along with equities. But this is really simple. So the bull market usually gets this bit right. So it basically got rid of the balloon inflation itself by going up without the Fed actually really being involved. Department your boning, I, my guess is it's going to start pricing out growth and inflation really fast. In your monthly update. I also noticed that your talk a bit about demographics. And when we talk about bonds, I think it's very tricky to avoid debate on demographics. So throughout this recent rally in interest rates, I've received a lot of push back when I've tried to, to compel to tell a compelling story to people that over the three to five-year horizon demographic still matter for interest rates. Can you make it maybe walk us through your thoughts on demographics going 35 years forward? Yep. So if I look at the, the, the demographics of Europe and the US, but let's focus on the US, who, the Baby Boom Cohort is. What average age of 70 now. So some of them are in the workforce, particularly in part-time jobs, the sum and full-time jobs in the workforce that coming out of the workforce. And they have to go into retirement. So firstly, retirees tend to own more bonds and equities because you don't want your pension falling 50 percent in a recession. Secondly, if you don't know how long are you going to live for and you've got a fixed amounts of capital. It tends to be careful in how much you spend. I'd say my parents catalysts when they retired, they like that spending went down a lot. So the consumption of that cohort goes down. But they're also saddled with debt. So that dynamic tends to create lower growth. And I look at the labor force participation rate and you can extrapolate it going forwards. And basically it's the trend of GDP. Trend of inflation is the trend of velocity of money. It's the trend of pretty much everything about economic lifetimes. And it's driven by this old coat cohorts. And so that means that it's almost impossible to generate inflation for extended periods of time. You might get it from a supply issue. You might get it from some, some demand to share a bit from China in the 2000s, there's a new demand source in the global economy. I don't see that right now. Sure, there's some ESG infrastructure spend that could do something a bit. But I don't really see that ensuring the Rishi, the BRI ensuring of supply chains. Yes, maybe. But the flip side of that is, none of those factories employed, people employ robots. But go and look at a Tesla factories. It's incredible how few people they need. And so I just say the relentless rise of technology plus this old demographic cohorts that's going to take another 10, 15 years to work its way through. Yeah, I can only generate slower economic growth over time. And that needs the central banks to run negative real rates because of all the debts that they've done to offset it. And yeah, that and I haven't seen anything in the picture that's changed that there is an argument that some put together that but they're going to release their capsule and spend it all. And that's inflation rate. I just see it from the behavior of all the retirees when I lived in a beach town in Spain, it's full of retired people and that they start, yeah, my dad went from buying, you know, you'll have 50 pound bottles of champagne to fighting in the supermarket over with his friends who could find the cheapest Spanish cover cubic, find a decent one for €3. Now, that's the mindset when you have a finite pool and we don't know how long liberal. So it's really important demographics. Yeah, I have to agree with that conclusion. Had I mean, it brings us to the discussion that has been ongoing, I guess, for the past year or so. Whether we are entering a 19 seventies kind of scenario again on inflation, on demographics. I think one key change since the 1970s is that we haven't got that roaring comeback of the labor supply that we had in the 1970s. Women entering the job market, et cetera, that made for a whole different climate when it comes to structural growth compared to what we see right now. When we're talking about demographics, I actually did a study on demographics across regions Recently. I would actually argue that the demographics in the US look decent compared to the demographics of Europe and in particular China. So let's touch upon that a bit. Because if you look at the demographic projections for China, they look absolutely awful. No matter whether you ask the World Bank, the UN, or if you try to come up with projections oneself, what do you make of the current situation in China and the spillovers to two potential growth in the Western world, short-term and also over the medium-term. You look, China cannot be a driver of economic growth in the way that it wasn't the past. You know, we think of like you talked about the 1970s, there was a double demand shock of everybody hitting 30 at the same time. Buy their first house, first car, having their first kid, all of that stuff. And women coming into the labor force, right? That was the biggest demand shock in history. China came onto the world stage and globalize massive demand shop for the economy. It was great. Yeah, they rebuilt the economy. But the problem is with an aging population now your trend rate of growth collapses. And they know it now, you can try and use technology to offset it. But it's yet to be seen whether we can do it because nobody's done it at scale. Japan's not manage that yet. And they're probably the world leader in robotics. But that's what you need. You need a robot workforce if you want to raise productivity per capita. If you don't have many people, it's a really interesting thing. Maybe that does happen. But China itself doesn't have the economic growth that it has. Doesn't mean it doesn't have the economic power. Because they did make a lot of progress in the years leading up to now. So it depends how smart they are with it, but it does also slow down. A lot of Southeast Asia has the same demographics. South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong. They've all got all populations. And so Southeast Asia is not going to be the engine of growth and it hasn't been, as you know, as you know, you look at a child, a cough spiel, talent. They've just done nothing for decades now. And thank you. Entering this year. I had a debate with, for example, there is they lose also a regular on real vision on whether China could be the dark holes in a positive sense on growth this year. Because they basically had the opportunity to reflect the global economy again. If they basically flooded markets with liquidity again in China, but they, they refrain from doing so. They're only saving domestic markets. It seems to me that they're not interested in trying to save the global momentum. So not even from China. We won't even get positive signals on growth from China. And in my humble, credit, growth in China, year-on-year a star is turning up. Now finally, so it's a stabilizing factor, as you said, they're not doing unlimited QE or anything that's going to rescue everybody else. Rescue themselves and I think you dead right there. Yeah. Exactly. So by the end of the day, it's hard to come up with a positive story on on demand growth of the company to three-quarters in, in my view, Here's the question for you that I'm going to ask your question, is the other the counterargument to our view? Yes, is that there's a structural problem with commodities. Now, my thoughts on that is yes. But year on year rate of change is what matters. So yes, it's very difficult for the oil price to have the same impacts because it needs a double, double again. But how do you think through that argument that people say, yeah, you don't get a inflations here for much longer. Well, I basically think that you're a betting against gravity if you think that the oil price will keep inflating the CPI index overall as a consequence of what you just depicted on the year over year, growth rates declining, sorted in the natural state, right? But I think there is a compelling argument in terms of the supply side of commodities, in particular in Europe. So I'm born and raised in Denmark, still live in Scandinavia. And it's fairly easy to see from the current ongoing debate amongst politicians that were actually willing to pay a lot to get rid of the sort of connection to Russia when it comes to natural gas and resources in general. And therefore, I think there is a lot of willingness to accept inflation within the population compared to usual. That could of course be a game changer when it comes to the supply side of that particular asset. Yes, boss, right? You've destroyed the demand side, right? Because yes. Because if commodity prices and inflation run high, wages don't follow suit, then all it means is address spends less on fancy bottles of wine on the weekend. Yeah, it's already happening. As we speak. I mean, I guess it's the same in the US. It's very, very easy to see when you go into supermarket or on a restaurant that prices are up. And we're starting to see that in in-demand, right? So I basically think myself that the best cure against high prices is price. It works. And that's also why I basically turned around on my view under Federal Reserve throughout spring here. I was very, very vocal throughout last year that the Federal Reserve would have to do something about the inflationary pressures. But now I'm not as convinced that they need to do a whole lot more to contain demand because, I mean, demand is already slowing. And by the end of the day, that's what they need. They need demand destruction and they will get it even without doing a lot more from now. Yeah, I think so. And if I look at, I'm starting to Earth towards the balance of probabilities are for a really fast collapse in the economy. Like 970 where it goes from 56 in the ISM where we are today, to negative something big. Now negative 30 is pretty extreme, but the tiny financial condition has been so big that it's possible. Now it's probably going to be short-lived. But I think if there's one shock out there because people are waiting who's going to blow up, what's going to happen? I think it was one shock. I think it's the economy implodes and it happens really fast. Now, as you know, we deal with probabilities, not certainties. So I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen, but it's definitely the bigger estimate. Ooh. I wanted to ask a few questions that we've received from the audience as well. Because we've basically agreed the two of us that the timing could be right to buy bonds and that interest rates could be beheaded down. So the question here is whether duration linked equities will finally catch a bit as result of that, what do you make of that discussion? I have been buying the over I've been averaging and over time the growth long end of tech because I believe that the tech adoption of AI, robotics, EV, Everything is exponential in nature. And therefore, you want to be involved in the secular trends. I like trading with the secular trend and not against it. And lot of this stuff is down 75%. So I'm starting to think this is interesting because if inflation comes lower and rates come lower, they should perform really well. In this crazy valuations. You know, stuff like Coinbase trades for nothing these days. And, you know, it's basically you need to make one decision which is, does, does digital asset network adoption continue or not? And if it continues, that it's wildly underprice because these things are logarithmic trend. And so there's a lot of stuff like that out there right now. That's really interesting. Yeah, and maybe we will get a reversal of the sort of intersect a bets that we've seen and equity space over the course of 2022. Here, It's been an ongoing stories belong value stocks versus growth stocks. But if we get this slight reversal of long bond yields lower, then I guess it makes sense to at least from a relative perspective, start outweighing the tech sector yes. Or acceptable value stocks again, right? Yeah, and if we get the kind of realization that growth is falling apart, I think everything gets heads. You know, that delta one moment where every place you think you're hiding because it's done well like Energy stock suddenly take it on the chin. We haven't had that moment yet. We got a little bit close. But I think there's the risk of that Stella. Again, it's not a certainty. I think that's going to come. Yeah. One thing that we haven't touched upon yet is the dollar. We've got a question here on the edX y's, or the brought dollar index. And it has actually been trading down over the past week, your despite nasdaq rallying, for example. So what do you make of that is the dollar sort of decoupling from the development in US equities of what's happening here. So I mean, I was lucky to catch all of the dollar move. Yeah, I saw that coming. And then I actually took profits last week, I think was last week because just technical basis. But what I've figured that as bond yields top out, the kind of lazy trade is to say, OH, bond yields down, therefore dollar down. That is a passing correlation, right? The dollar really Bayesian. So it kind of shifts around what affects it all the time. So I figured, okay, we might see a bit of a wash out. Now. I think as bond yields come down, the Japanese stopped buying as many bonds, and therefore it stops recycling it into the US bond market said. So. The dollar therefore backs off somewhat. I accidentally, two weeks ago on a weekend, I was searching through my library for book to read out somebody pull and I picked up the alchemy of financed by George Soros. And I hadn't read that for 20 years now. Probably didn't really understand it when I first read it. And it was his trading diary of 980 five, which was a fascinating, I won't go into. It's a longer story but amazing. But B, it was the period of record. So 1984 was actually a very similar setup to now. Very, very similar inflation. The Fed were hiking, blah, blah, blah. They managed to avoid the recession that time around. But the dollar backed off as soon as the Fed starts at Caltech and then exploded higher. And I'm fair for that still, I still fear a kind of very toxic dollar rally. It actually helps with a lot of things to do it because it gets rid of inflation entirely and brings down commodity prices, et cetera. But I have a fear that we've got that still out there. So I'm watching that closely because source wrote about it. He's like, you know, he he saw the dollar was coming off. And it took everybody by surprise when it absolutely ripped and they had to end up with a record and everybody needs to walk along. The question. I always ask myself on the dollar. In the case that global growth, this is headed down as it is right now, is very simply speaking, do I want to be short the US dollar into a global recession? And usually I end up concluding that the answer to that is a no. For, for a couple of reasons. First of all, the main saws and my view of dollar liquidity is not the Federal Reserve, it is actually global trade. So when the US imports a lot of stuff from, from global partners, they also automatically export dollar liquidity to talk to those foreign markets. So when we have a slowdown or even an outright decline in global trade. Then it is a clear signal of a shrinking liquidity base of dollars outside US borders and it triggers the issue with the shortage of dollars off shore. Yes. So as global trade goes, everybody with dollar debts scrambles because they don't have as much income to borrow money to pay for the debt. And what happens is it's a game of musical chairs. And this time around it was Srilanka was the first one to not have a chance to sit down on. And that's the dollar shortage that plays out, that structural because the US is 25 percent of global GDP, yet it's 87 percent of world trade is US dollars. That mismatch keeps creating this problem. And that was the same issue in the eighties. And eventually it took all the central banks to get together to force it down. And so yeah, I think you're right. I think global trade is the big is the big velocity for the global dollar. Yep, velocity is maybe a better word than liquidity. But you're, you're absolutely right that it probably takes a coordinated effort from, from central banks across the globe to really fight against that trend if we get or if we enter a, a global recession on trade as well. So it's your thoughts about that this trade links is really interesting because if you think about the Eurodollar market is basically funded by the European banks, the Japanese banks, and maybe some Southeast Asian banks. And what happens is if trade goes down, There's less deposits in there. They can't create as much euro dollars. And what happens is the market gets stopped and the dollar screens higher. Yeah, that's a really clear linkage. Yep. So by the end of the day, I'm not giving up on my dollar lungs. Being based here in Europe. I think that's one of the best positions you're going to have on into this kind of environment when you are based in Europe at least? Yeah. I don't I don't disagree. I took some profits. I just thought well, let's wait and see, I don't disagree. A vital part of this question related to the dollar also referred to the developments that we've seen in Ethereum and Bitcoin this week. Because it's kind of an interesting divergence that we have tech stocks rallied. We still see a another drawdown in Ethereum and Bitcoin. Do you have any explanation of this divergence room? Yeah, it's month and rebalance. The risk off and the elements of liquidity, tightness and people need to sell assets to realize capital is still playing out in crypto. And I think it goes further. I think we've got, I think we've got a four week window that is really scary. Something between 25 weeks, call it that. That is going to be really scary. And I think once the month and rebalance finishes, it probably goes lower. And crypto kinda telling us where the natural state of affairs is. I think it's also interesting that bond yields see, keep coming down while equities kinda rallied normally as equities rally, you'd be saying, well, the probability of the Fed needing to do something goes down. So, yeah, I think, I think it's written in the, in the in the language of the market somewhere, that risk still has to come lower first. Yeah. So we're headed towards the end of today's program, but I wanted to wrap up a few things. We tend to agree role that it is a good timing to buy bonds now. But we've had a couple of questions on the chat here relating to that particular question because we are essentially staring directly into the Federal Reserve, launching the actual quantitative typing process. And here we are telling you to buy ones once the Fed basically starts off loading in them to the private market. Guy is saying with what's going on with that? Well, there's two things. One is CPI is a lagging indicator and the bonds need to be forward-looking on growth and inflation. Yeah, So which is why you need to be doing the opposite of peak narrative. And the other reason is your chart that you produced in 2018 or 19? I think it was 18, which was the conservative tightening charts and Q0 chart and what it actually does, the bond deals. I think it was your chart was not. Yeah. And basically it show very clearly that periods of cutie food by whatever mechanism bond yields tend to rally. Now I don't think they do QT for very long, but bonds will rally and economic weakness too. So this is really a sweet spot for bonds. Why do you think that? Did you get to the bottom of why you think they rally and keep way? And I think the basic conclusion of my study was the following. When the Federal Reserve leaves the inner part of the risk curve, curve up for grabs. You ultimately slowly but surely start fishing the private market in width on the risk curve as well. So you have basically treasury bonds on the very, in a pot of the risk curve. And you have, let's say, high yield bonds in Botswana on the very far end of the risk curve. And as soon as the Federal Reserve actually allows a portion of the inner part of the risk curve up for grabs again, for the private market. Then you slowly but surely move private investors in that curve. So they stopped selling risk assets and buying bonds very mechanically. I think that's the reason why. And secondly, with bond yields at say, 3% in 10 years base in various countries. Now, it is starting to get a bit more compelling as a portfolio manager in a big institution to enter along again, right. So I think the appetite will slowly but surely come back as a consequence of the reprising that we've already see. Basically. So I don't think it's necessarily a bad idea to buy bonds into acuity scenario has worked. It's worked every time. It's also works every time to buy them in, into peak inflation, because peak inflation tends to be peak of cycle. And pick a cycle always means bond yields fall. Again. Bond yields have been traders have two jobs. Forward-looking economic growth, forward-looking inflation. That's it. Yeah. And they don't look at the now, looking at the now is reading the newspaper from a year ago. And I think that's a very good Wrap of, wrap-up of today's discussion. Because essentially if we look towards the growth cycle, it seems to have peaked quite materially already. Now, if we look at the forward-looking indicators for fires, ISM, they essentially in recessionary territory, all of them. And even today we got some, I'd say, early signals that inflation has already peaked as well. So by the end of the day, end of the day, that is a pretty benign scenario for being long bumps. And okay. Final question. Yes. And I'm going to answer the same question. When did the Fed stop? When, when does the cutting we don't know but when did they stop? Give me give me your best guess. Date it is it will stick said September. Yeah. I mean, even even if it's not a voter, I think he's been instrumental in guiding markets on, on the direction of the Federal Reserve. Saw, I would actually put my trust in busting and say September is the dogging cycle. And I think it if I'm right that we get this risk flush. And the ISM, I think we asked him comes out next week, I guess might be closer to 52 then the market is expecting 55. The two points away from weather usually pivots or by July, I think I kind of think there's a 5050 chance that this is the last hike while taking a basketball game changer, if that's right, That's what I think. That's what I think is happening. I think the bond market is telling it's a little bit early. But that's one, that's that's my best guess. But at least we are clearly leaning the same way from a risk-reward perspective in terms of how to play this in markets. Yeah, it's because we also both look at the business cycle. And so yeah, it's clear. Yeah, growth is coming down. That's for sure. With those sports, I will say thanks for watching the real vision daily briefing with me and dress. And the guests for lapel. Mucky lake will be back next to State with Tony career as her guest, should be a very exciting episode as well. Enjoy the long weekend and the memorial Monday. Thanks for now. Thanks, everybody. Well done to address one of the first daily briefing. Thank you. Does deejaying so MLR well, I've got bullet holes in them that averse and allowed. I think the coolest thing about NFT does that for creators like me, for writers, and I'm sure, you know, across spectrum of creativity, artists, photographers or whatever, can have a community of people who are invested in it. We're with you on this dry and now have access to you and you have access to them. And that's just, to me, it is revolutionary regulation as stymied the development or the adoption of digital assets by some of these large-scale financial institutions. Boston Consulting Group has greats down this from 2009 to 2016, European and North American banks were collectively find $321 billion by regulated. So let me just an eye watering number. I have lived through the financial crisis and predicted it. I had also lived through the European crisis. I'm predicted it and had been in Europe enhanced by a generator and food, get cash out of the bank and keep it at home. But that's how close we were in Spain. So losing our entire banking system.