253978563 - 1_0ibet8co - PID 1851201 Welcome to revision daily briefing. It's Thursday, May 12th, 2020 to I'm Ash Bennington, joined today by immigrant lockup, founder of options inside lots to talk about today. Lots to cover most major US equity indices, pretty much flat on the day. Dow Jones Industrial Average off four-tenths of 1%. But also lots happening in the cryptocurrency complex. More than 15 percent of the crypto market cap evaporating overnight, that's more than $200 billion, disappearing in wait one day signifigant liquidations. We're going to cover all of that in the back half of the show. But first, I want to welcome immigrant and talk a little bit about what's happening in markets and macro. Welcome back to religion. Pleasure to have you. Hey, Ash gets a chance to mate. So we have lots of charts I know to look at. But before we jump in and start going through those, give us the big picture. 50 thousand feet, where are we right now? So obviously, you know, equities that have been going through a bit of risk of liquidation. And for me, the big theme this week has been the flipping correlation between bonds and equity. So we've had, got an environment where obviously the Fed turned very hawkish, try to get inflation under control. They had a political mandate from Boyden to do that. And basically that move in yields was driving tech stocks in particular down or it was taking equities level, right? Only, only recently that as we've started to see commodities rollover, as we've seen the problems if China, China lock downs and things like that and a real concern that we might be going into a global recession in the not too distant future. All of a sudden now equities it's time to accelerate to the downside, breaking some very important levels like 4 thousand on the S and P. And whilst they're doing that, you now start to get a bit, come back to bonds. So when bonds are leading the way down, you had this positive correlation between the two. But now if equities are the one that's leading us down because it's growth concerns than bonds are going to go the other way and catch a bit. And that's what we've really seen this week. And I think that's the real sort of inflection point in markets. Yeah, Very well said Edmond and very well-framed. Just to put some data points around this where people who aren't following it as closely as you are, S and P 500 closing out the day here at 3,930, down fractionally on the day about a tenth of a percent. And exactly as you say, I'm going below that key psychological level of 4 thousand year to date basis. That's off 18% or there about one-year change minus 4%, That's going back a period of 12 months. But I also want to call out nasdaq Composite here off roughly 28% on the year as you pointed to him and the sell-off in tech stocks, 12-month change minus 13.5%. Yeah, exactly. And enemy in the next sort of trades that, I mean, retail really been getting killed, right? So AAC is obviously way more than the Nasdaq. And we've got Shaw Brian, if you, if you've got it there, where you can superimpose the performance of ADH on the Nasdaq from, from 2000. And when that bubble burst. And it's just, it's uncanny how well it's tracking it, right? It's really, really tricky very closely and elicit something. Julian Britain has been talking about bright on your show. That this is, this is how he sees it, right? And that's why he saw down. So I didn't OK. I think he's tollgate was about thirty-five dollars and we printed that today. Ok. So we've Haze talk, doubt stepping in and buying it. You'd have to ask him. But it's definitely been a bit of a retail flush out there. And we've been seeing that Crossing, I mean, stocks, you're AMC type stocks. We've been seeing that crosstalk stocks, uranium, Tesla, crypto, anything that retail's been involved in is C, that's where the epicenter of the pain has been basically right. And I think in the super short-term were probably a bit overdone. That's what feels like to me. And I've got various reasons for thinking that we can talk about when we talk about crypto. But yet, this, and I think JP Morgan put out a chart saying how the they tried to track the P&L of retail trading that's been going on since 2020, since the start of that year. And whilst they were up pretty heavy in the first year of that, they've given it back basically. Right. So we tell our water up in the last three days, you've seen a lot of retail liquidation going on. And now it does very much have that sense of a flush out. Whilst we may still go lower inequities as the market reprises in the growth scenario over the next few months. I just think the next week or two, the trade is probably to be on the buy-side, right? That does, That's how I see you. You know, um, and lots of important points that you just made there. People who are brave enough to buy the name of the game is called catch a falling knife. You mentioned arc at the top of your remarks. Arc right now, looks like a 3899, closing out the day up a bit, as you say. By the way, we also have these numbers here, which are pretty dismal year to date, minus basically 60 percent trailing 12 month change on arc minus 62.5%. The risk reward isn't to buy things like awk outright, because whilst they can have a 2013 present balance, Rousseau evaporate 30 percent, right. So you know, you don't have a lot of edge and just buying that thing even if you think it's oversold. And that's where I come in, right? Because it's all about optionality, the way you'd have age, and the way that you can safely catch the falling knife as you put it, is by doing option structures that give you a very fixed cost basis, right? Fixed risk. And then you can maybe multiply that by a factor of two to five, Whoever is dependent on structure that you choose. But for me personally, that's how I like to catch a falling knife trying to cause spreads of Kobe shell structures. When you buy one call option and you sell multiple cause behind it. In a way where you know how much you're spending and if you get that balance, then, then you basically multiply and premium plan. Well, let's talk that through because it's a really interesting point. I know the interesting thing about this show, of course, is we have people from all different levels of sophistication coming to it for people who are relatively new to the option space, which is your specialty, who were trying to understand how they can potentially in certain structures catch optionality in a way that gives an asymmetric potential for return. Talk a little bit about what that looks like and how you do it. So let's put some numbers on it then, right? Look at the S and P down at the Illinois right now. So let's say you thought by next Friday we're going to get about right, because God expiry coming on Friday, you often do get get some shenanigans into expiry where you, where you get a burn off of down. So it puts that people are holding and that creates a rally because dealers have to buy futures against that. So that's a dynamic that you often see. So let's say that was your scenario, right? You thought the S and P was going to go maybe back about 4 thousand towards maybe 454100. That was like your tog area. Okay. You just go and buy a call option right now for 1000, strike call option for next week. That's going to be quite expensive, right? Because the implied vol on that option is quite high. It's going to cost you like 40 index points. It's going to cost you a percent. So even if you got a rally to 440, which is a 100 points or more from here, That's where your break-even. And even if you got to 4100, you only double your money, which in an option, he kinda wanna do a bit better than that basically, right? So so the way that I would do is I would buy something like the full thousand cuz I would then sell one or maybe two of the 4100 cause, okay, so there are 100 points higher. So the idea being that if we do get the bounce and we start to rally above 4000, and then we go towards the option that I've sold. That option is burning away, is evaporating, is the time to Karen is so heavy. It's a short volatility position, I guess was happening to implied volatility when the market goes up, that's coming back down, right? So you're, the dynamics at play in that structure, or long delta, which means you want the market to rally. Show Vega, which means you won't vote to come down. And then that vaguer that you get show increases as you rally. That correlation between the market move and the volatility move that you're playing, basically right? And so that gives you a really nice asymmetric risk reward. Obviously, if the Mach your ribs to 4200 in a heartbeat, there's risk there in that structure because you've oversold the upside. But you can tailor those risks to your risk tolerance, right? You can only do a cool spread if you're not comfortable with that risk. Or you can sell multiple calls if you are comfortable with that risk. And, and that's something you need to practice with and, and sort of learn by doing basically. Yeah, it's great to hear you talk about this in the way the pros think about it and do this. Obviously a lot of Greeks and their vega is a measure of sensitivity to the implied volatility. The underlying. As we talk this through, you mentioned at the top of the show this macroeconomic backdrop. You talked about bond yields. I know actually I read a recent note of yours where you actually lead with bond yields and what's happening in that space. Let's take a look at that chart and perhaps you could walk us through it a bit. Yes. Obviously, we talked about the dynamic where equities was it felt like equities a bit of a cliff edge around that full thousand area. We go if we go if we go a real break, a full thousand that we could accelerate. And to be fair, we've done that right. We got to around 3850 ish today. Just as a face or move. And then we've also got the TOT rallying on the back of that bond, bond yields coming off. So there's the trade that I was doing again, a similar trade to what we just described on the S and P. The trade that I got my subscribers to. What I showed my subscribers on Monday was a coup spread on TOT. So I believe Raul, Raul January looks a boy who's on CLT. I did a coup spread because I didn't want to pay for that volatility premium because the volleys quite elevated, right? So I did to July 120, 130 Qu spread as a way to play a rally in TLT. Yeah. So that was kind of trade-offs the cat and not like Save As because there's a bit of speculative shows being built up in bond market. Technicals was showing very, very I episode in bonds. There was also a bullish divergence there. If you look at who indicates that divergence is where you have lows in price, but you don't have lows in momentum. And so then you have a bullish signal there from, from, from a technical perspective. And then inflation swaps rolling, I really obey. It was a long-term support level on TLT to me as a confluence of factors that suggested that it's worth taking a trade on in TLT for balance basically, right. So that's what I did. Yeah. By the way, apologies for those of you hearing the ambulance in the background and welcome to New York City. I just wanted to touch on something. You mentioned you talked about TLT. I know that you and I were talking earlier at the beginning of the show off camera about Raoult's insights on this. I want you to take a look at this clip. When we have conversations here on religion daily briefing, we often talk about how the shows are available on the essential plus and pro tiers today, a special tree, a preview of something that Rao talked about on a flash macro update on the pro tier here on religion. Let's take a look at that clip. My view is that the economy is plummeting into a recession. I think economic growth is evaporated. The S and P, y2 and y3 to change is now fully price, you're going to recession. We're seeing that across the high end forward-looking indicators, the growth is imploding. This is what I've been expecting. I've been setting all of you are macro and scientists per period of time. And as you know, my framework change. So the downside of equities is not my general choice. My choice is the upside of equities that comes out of this, which has been a structural framework, change his mind. But here we are in the phase that I've been looking for, I'm waiting for we're not fully through it yet. That phase is, I've been expecting that equity markets go into the meltdown in the final kind of fear face, that fear phase starts pricing in the full recession. At that point, bond yields stop rising. And bonds. Or the truth as I keep saying, and what that means is bond yields will start pricing out fed hikes and saying, well enough is enough. Last three days, it's early to say that it looks like it's happened. The bond traders starting to play out. So I think this starts to get very interesting. I would like to add bones to try recommendation just by TLT. I will look further when I write the piece whether we can add some Euro dollars. The order of coal trade won't work like it did in 2018 19, because volatility to high. So the option price than you give kind of free one restaurants. So we're probably gonna have to use futures wheel if you use that kind of stuff to get the kind of returns that we want out of it. But let's just start with the TLC position for one can probably vice and Coles, again, I need some time on the weekend to go through this, to rush right now. But the dip your toe in the water, bond yields should fall very sharply as people start to price out inflation. The next part of this equation is the oil price, I think will break when it breaks 96 than the inflation phase out and gone. And that's going to give a central banks room to maneuver. So Rao talking about TLT, which we just covered here on this show and obviously also sobering words about recession risks. All this and more we should say on a real vision Pro. Here I am and I were talking a little bit off camera about how you've largely agreed with rouse points? Yeah. I mean, you know, I've I've been sitting on my hands a bit in terms of getting two long bones, right? But a lot of very small macaron lists around a, say, a thinking that we're going to head into a bit more of a deflationary regime. Doris Day was on yesterday, I believe, right. Saying saying that and and you're in that regime, you want to have some fixed income. But had you bought fixed income to early, you've taken quite a big draw down on that, right? So like the keys being that because inflation has been high, let's say above 5% or whatever, the correlation between bonds and equities has been quite heavy. And what I believe is going to happen is that correlation is going to flip back around the other way as growth rose over. And that's why I've dip my toes in via Qu spreads on TLT right now, abuser book who spreads on Eurodollar futures out to the end of the year. And, and those trade, yeah, or basically playing the idea that growth can roll over, the Fed's going to have to slow down, or it is going to get priced into the bond market and the terminal rates are going to have to be lower again, basically, right? I think that I like that trade. I haven't like say boiler to outright TLT is because there may still be one lost leg down there. If these inflation prints take stubbornly long time to come down. The way commodities it going and they all relate indicate for inflation. It suggests that inflation is starting to top out. Yeah. So let's shift gears here a little bit. We tease it at the top of the show, carnage right now in the crypto space in the digital assets base. Give us a little bit of a framework for how you think about where we are. Big picture. Yes, six, a crypto, you know, I've been saying this in my crypto insight videos for months, right? Crypto wasn't going to escape the viscous itself. Okay. And people who thought it was some kind of hedge or whatever kind of kidding themselves, right? It was function of liquidity. Lot easy money that pumps up these crypto markets. And as the easy money comes out, crypto goes down with it. And we've seen that. Now that's not to say, I'm no long-term believer in crypto. And I do think that suddenly the big cat crypto is like Bitcoin Ethereum salon as likely to stick around, right? It's just that they're highly volatile. And they can drop by 70, 80% before they decide to go back up again. Okay, So until we think viscous, it's a bottomed out, which I suspect happen sometime in the summer, right? Crypto is just still massively outweighs. The correlation between nasdaq and Bitcoin has been 90 to a 100 percent. That's not suddenly going to change. So if you think the ultimate resolution of this cycle, before we get a dovish pivot out the Fed is S and P, somewhere in the mid-30s, thousands or even Loa, which is another 10 percent, at least, then crypto is not going to escape that. And then we had the obviously the idiosyncratic risk in crypto of terror and lunar going pop. And that's kinda catalyze this will fall down. I bought Crypto is going down anyway in line with the market. It just got a bit of an acceleration recently. Yeah, there's there's so much happening right now and i'm, I'm looking at my screen and just following prices because these are moving so quickly that you can't possibly get them printed ahead of time. But look, you know, here's the reality we've seen as you say, all of these idiosyncratic risks, we seeing things happening in the, sort of on the bleeding edge, we're really cool. Stuff is happening in the DeFi space, in the Web three space, we've seen some prominent failures there. Right now. I'm looking at at Tara. Luna, just absolutely destroy down 97 percent. Strangely, Tara USD, US t, This is, this is the Terra USD pair traded under USD is not at 0 yet. It's, it's down to about, it's down to about $0.42. Absolute, just misery and carnage everywhere you turn Bitcoin. Interestingly enough, you could say the network continuing to function precisely as it was designed to know flaws, no exploits. But you know, you've gotten whacked on a price action basis trading now around 28,530. So lots of things happening in this space. And to your point, there was this narrative that people particularly who are great, sort of passionate fans and supporters of this space have said for a very long time, which is, hey, look, bitcoin is going to be this off the grid acid. It's going to be the alternative to the traditional macro financial space. And exactly as you said, basically the correlation goes to 90 percent with nasdaq 100 nasdaq Composite pick your poison. Correlated, not uncorrelated. Yeah, I think it's plenty due to the fact that so much professional money has come into the space, right? So real one portfolios is become part of the macro portfolio and you have to soil Isaiah and trade it like correlated asset. And that's kinda what's happening, right? That's the way portfolio managers are treating it. But that's not to say, let's say the long-term. There are long-term reasons to be bullish this space. It's just that you need to understand what it can do to you. And so don't take leverage. Have a long-term game plan. And if you understand options, would you want to understand options? Come to me and I'll show you, hedge it basically, right? That's what I do. Yeah. By the way, I should say, we've got questions just flying in and I want you to get to some of these because there's some really good ones here. So this is, this is a great question from jazz to this one comes first from the exchange. This is revisions internal social network. If you haven't checked it out, i'd I'd advise you to take a look at the exchange if you're passionate about religion content. And this really sort of cuts to the nub of it. And it is after five consecutive weeks going down so badly. Is there any way any indicator that can tell us how much is already priced in? I mean, that's the that's the multi-trillion dollar question, isn't it? I mean, it I saw the indicated I like to look at is short-term skew in, in crypto. Let me just break down what that means. So, so you have the volatility surface. I'm at the money volatility, which is the volatility for options with strikes where the market is now. So in crypto and Bitcoin now being 28 thousand, they have different strike option. So you've got downside strikes which are generally put strikes that we will look at some of the 20000 puts. You could look at the implied vol on those, or you could compare that. So maybe somebody lot the 40000 cuz which are the upside strike. And the difference between the volatility on the cause inputs is what we call skew, right? And the reason that's important is because it gives you a feel for where the supply and demand is, right? So if all the implied volatility is traded at the same level. We'll show that there's no imbalance, right? There is, people are indifferent between buying calls and puts, and they see the tail risk and the gap risk in the market to be equal on either side, right? If however there's a skewed to one side, then he's telling you that market participants are fearful of the market moving a certain way. And right now that skews very much to the side. And it has been for a while because of the correlation to equities that bitcoin has had, the fat, the skew existed, downside inequities all the time anyway, that started to feed through into crypto I, but now it's really accelerate with what's happened in the last week. So extreme is go to levels that it was lost May, June when crypto was puking, when China was exiting crip time, right? Said that's how far it's gone. And that's about as far as it goes in terms of how it can stretch for the put's. So we may actually see that as quite a strong short-term indicated that things have gone too far. Max theories being priced into the downside. Brian, I think you've got the jaw on that. And I know I see that as at least the shoot indicator, maybe a week or two, that we need to have a bit of stabilization and make an encrypted his calm down. So I fall 20% rally on crip time. We're still massively down, right? So I think a 10 to 20 percent bounce in short-term on the back of the fact that skews just gone to the moon. And then we go back to what we were doing, which is tracking equities, which is probably lower from when it's dry. And so I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. For me, I'm working on the framework that we could go as low as 20 k and Bitcoin. But I'd be surprised if we don't see the E2, E3 came before that. Basically. Yeah, there's also talk of support at the 27 thousand level. If you read some of the posts and if you're reading Twitter. So obviously something that we'll have to wait and see where that support level is. And here's a great question. This one comes just from TC. This is from the real vision website, GC, obviously a sophisticated investor. I'm gonna do a little bit of translating here. The question is, what's Enron's view on SPX, OpEx distribution? This is S and P 500 options, XQuery distribution. Any specifically calls out June OpEx, which he believes looks heavy versus may OpEx any thoughts there? Um, and I mean, a coolie expiring, say it's going to be heavy in terms of like open interest and stuff like that. That's just kind of regular run of the mill. I mean, if you're talking about June co2 least, that's going to include that big JP Morgan trade. And I can't remember off the top my head where the strikes are on that. But that's a trait that often kind of distorts the market and create some kind of pinning in the option space. But in general, the big open interest right now is around that 4 thousand area. And it's a good question cuz I wanted to talk about this topic where we've seen a bleed down in the S and P of about 5%, VIX is gone nowhere basically, right? If anybody has got lower. And so the, so that's the v6 going lower, which is unusual anyway when the market goes down. But what that really means is we have a chart on this, by the way. I think Brian's got one right? Like we might. Yeah, the but what it means is the fixed strike volatility, which means the employed bowl for a particular strike option has got absolutely decimated in the face of the self. And that's quite unusual, right? And, and it's not like the mafia hasn't been moving as well. If the market was really grinding down and not realizing, then you could understand that. But the fact that those So offered in the face of a market breaking three 4000 and all the macro stuff going on, that's quite surprising. And the only way I can rationalize that is that a lot of these big open interest around these 4 thousand area is actually deal is the along options because clients have bought put spreads, right? Clients. In March when Russia, Ukraine kicked off, volatility had a spike. So like volatility in the 25 to 30 region is not something we have not seen, right? We've seen it for a large part of this year. So what happens is when clients need to put on hedges, they look at the absolute level of ball and they say, is it cheap or expensive? If it's cheap, they buy puts, it is expensive. They bought put sprints. When they buy put spreads, that means they buy one option and then they sell an option behind it, right? There. Chances are they bore options struck up for a 400 and they sewed option struck at 4 thousand. And now we've gone down. So those options basically right, dealers are in the air, probably longer strikes. That's the only way I can rationalize it, evolves not performing, right? And that's the dynamic where in at the moment. So what I'm interested to see is if Mach, it's kinda hold these levels, maybe even have a little pop into my expiring next week. And then when those long strikes disappear, then there's more fragility again on the market, can accelerated downside and do what we expect it to do. And the VIX can pop again basically, right? And that's kind of the me, that's how, that's my playbook and how I envisage the moves kind of playing out over the next few weeks. Great question from PTC and a great detailed answer. It's always great when the guess, when, excuse me, the audience ask a question that the guest would wanted to talk about anyway. So a perfect question. Thanks again, TC. Let's see if we can hit two questions here real quick before we wrap up. Here's one that comes to us from Douglas. This one's from YouTube. Welcome Douglas. And the question, why the question has a little bit of a presupposition at it, but curious to hear what your thoughts are. What does the Fed do when bond yields crash? But they didn't burn the crash is funny. Bond yields are just doing all the work for the Fed at the moment, it seems, right. Again, this Sunday row mentions the Titans already happened. We've been when the rays market prices in 10, 11 hikes, job done, right? And then all of a sudden, risk assets then reflect that and they're going to start plus the hiked back out again in February end up not having to do as much as we thought it was going to have to do. So bond yields a kind of a, otherwise, I'll just say this to my subscribers that the Fed just does what it's told by the brakes market most of the time. Right. And I continue to believe the US was going to happen. Yeah. Final question and it's one that is a good one to end a good one to end on. I think this one comes from John a. This is from the revision site and the question is imminent comments on dx y 104 spot 85. That's a little bit of context. This is dollar index, dx y, and we're seeing it right now at multi-year highs. Thoughts on where we are right now on dollar index and its broader significance. I know that there was a chart in your deck from the macro insight report, the weekly macro insight report from options insight thoughts about the dollar, own nearly 10 5 is we have this massive level and the doula, I've been leaning, I've been using cuz on the doula as a macro hedge. I put those on about a month ago, maybe a bit longer car member but it's enclosed on don't again, I had to put Sonya radula. They obviously did well. I've taken profit on a third of that position, but they were six month options. The reason I use six month options is because, well, it was the front end of the Volkov at popped in effects. The middle hadn't really done much. And ethics moves tend to take quite a long time to play out. So when ethics goes, it can really trained for a long period of time. And so you don't want to byte to short date options in effects because they end up just expiring too soon and you really get your proper move over a series of mumps. So my idea was you had to dollar really wants to go that it can go a long way. And we are at crazy important levels, right? So once again was massive. We popped, I head for it and obviously rejected on the back of the bond yields because it's very high correlation between bond yields and dollar yen right now. The O'Jays doing Eurodollar though, is cracking a 1.51313 right now, That's an enormous level on long-term jaw. If it breaks one of three, then he opens up the road to 0.9. In your role. And even an ECP are doing their best to joule by rate jawbone, this thing and say that they're going to hike rates. Monkeys no buying it basically right market saying you're not going to be able to because your economy screwed, right? So for number of reasons. So I think euros a very critical juncture right now. I have taken some profit on dollar cost because we are at this place. But yeah, I mean, if it if it breaks from this point, there's a lot of room for the dollar to cover again, and that's not going to be good for risk assessment role. And I think something I mentioned in my Mac reserved, what was the last year or so of commodities in the dollar has gone up together, which is very rare. Normally they have negative correlation, right? Because commodities are priced in dollars essentially, by Eve had the supply chain issues and commodities really driving that market higher and not carrying the dollar rallying over the last two weeks, that has changed. Commodity ease of obviously starts rollover. They don't like the dollar strength so that the wrecking ball that is the dollar is thawing to actually break stuff. I think the more it goes from here, the more marginal impact actually will have. So we seem to reach that tipping point M and a **** of a show. Great. Haben ja and we have to have you back and really enjoyed this one. As we wrap up here, final thoughts, key takeaways that you'd like to leave our audience with. Key takeaways. What we've been defensive. For good reason, liquidity is coming out. This market law of sines that growth is kinda rolling over. You need to stay defensive. Use optionality. If you want to dip your toes in and try and play, play the short squeezes, their markets and notorious for violent squeezes. Let those squeezes puffy weight into thinking that the bear markets over. Just use optional a stay nimble and kind of yeah. Did you trade books in front of you basically get merits of positions? Yeah. Well, set up. I am and I understand you're doing an event. Yeah, that's right. So I've done obviously I run options inside, which is a training company where I teach people buy options as well. I do as well. I've done for 20 years and are grumpy, comes every two or three months. Live on Zoom basically. And my latest spook him that's coming up. Next one coming up in July, August special guest on there. That is the the legend that is diarrheas Dale. And he's going to come on as a, as a guest student. And the idea is that himself and for my subscribers can come, anyone else can come as well. But I fully see micro subscribe as well. We'll get a little baby incentive there as he's coming. And I'm pretty sure he's going to ask more questions. Love ever been asked before in my life when a boot camp, right? So I'm looking forward to it. I love hearing the revision network expanding. Everyone. Thank you so much for joining us. Thanks for having me. Thanks again for watching everyone. Tomorrow. 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